Free Republic

7 Significant Headwinds For The US Economy Comstock PartnersFebuary 17, 2012 At current levels the market is expecting a lot more than it’s going to get. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief that the U.S. did not fall into a recession following the 2011 mid-year slowdown and that the likelihood of an agreement between the EU and Greece will, at least, avert a Greek default on March 20th. While that is true as far as it goes, the U.S. economy is still highly fragile, and the EU agreement is the least bad among a choice of lousy options. Although...

JEFF SAUT: This Market Has Now Had Its Second 'Dog Barking In The Night' Joe Weisenthal Febuary 13, 2011 The latest from Jeff Saut, the bullish Raymond James analyst who has basically been a bull from the very beginning. The call for this week: There was another "dog barking in the night" (reference my Sherlock Holmes report of 1/30/12) when two perma bears recently turned bullish. The bears in question are David Rosenberg and Nouriel Roubini. When the ultimate "bears" finally capitulate, well you can draw your own conclusion. That said, it is normal for a market in an uptrend...

Here's The Chart That Has Stock Market Bears Ripping Their Hair Out Sam Ro Febuary 12, 2012Stocks have had an incredible run so far since the beginning of the year. The S&P 500 is up a whopping 6.7% during the period, closing at 1342 on Friday. In December, we surveyed 16 of Wall street's top strategists who told us that the S&P 500 would close at just 1363 by the end of 2012. At the time, five of those strategists had targets below 1342. Why were they so conservative? Well, some of the key risks cited included deterioration in the...

A Quick Look At How Much The Stock Market Has Died Simone Foxman Febuarary 9, 2012Despite a spectacular rally year to date, it's been observed that there's basically no market volume. So we took a look at historical volumes, as well as trends that have been going on in the last few years. Turns out volume of trade hasn't been this light on average in over 10 years, and that—in general—it has been trending down pretty clearly since the onset fo the financial crisis. Another thing that's interesting is the daily trading range. The difference between daily market highs and...

Art Cashin On A Scary Parallel Between Now And Last Summer Joe Weisenthal Febuary 9,2011 In his morning note, UBS floor guy draws a scary parallel between the market today and last summer. ------------- Let’s Hope It’s Not An Omen - In his column this morning, Mark Hulbert notes that corporate insiders are “now selling their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July. That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the stock market in years.” Hulbert then examines how aggressive...

Essential Investor Preparations For The Big Crisis Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 Feb 03, 2012 - 10:12 AM By: DeepCaster LLC “The U.S. economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last five years continue to deteriorate. Yet they remain just the precursors to the coming Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. The unfolding circumstance will encompass a complete loss in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar; a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system, as we know it; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. Outside timing...

Rogers told CNBC that the timing of an IPO this week would be a smart move by Facebook. "It's been demonstrated many, many times before that sellers are usually smarter than the buyers, and they usually know when the best time to sell is, and Facebook is doing it," he said. Turning to the broader US economy, Rogers said the United States looks and feels better because the government is throwing money at it. "There is an election in November 2012. Every time there is an election, the government pumps as much money as it can so it can to...

George Soros Warns Of Financial Collapse, Class Warfare And The Rise Of Evil Gus Lubin Jan. 24, 2012, 8:00 AM Soros George Soros warns of financial collapse and class warfare in a chilling interview with Newsweek's John Alridge. “At times like these, survival is the most important thing,” he says, peering through his owlish glasses and brushing wisps of gray hair off his forehead. He doesn’t just mean it’s time to protect your assets. He means it’s time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of...

Southern Europe Permanently Crippled, The Only Tool Left Is Hyper Inflation Economics / HyperInflation Jan 20, 2012 - 11:24 AM By: Jim Willie CB Any perusal around the world these days features Southern Europe crippled, preparing for the inevitable Greek Govt Bond default. It features a crippled US housing market, a mockery of statistical accounting in the US Gross Domestic Product, the plight of the COMEX with established veterans clearing out desks (not trading), the extreme physical demand reported by the London Trader, and the indictment of the SLV iTrust Silver Fund tool used by the cartel. The survey does...

Fearing a congressional stalemate over transportation funding, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is looking to the Chinese government as an option to possibly save his ambitious plan to build a dozen mass-transit projects in 10 years instead of 30. Villaraigosa said Thursday that he met with executives from the China Investment Corp. in Beijing during his trip to Asia in December. The group was established in 2007 by the People's Republic of China, according to the corporation's website. Officials with the mayor's office said the meeting was only preliminary and characterized it as "very cordial" and part of the larger...

How the U.S. National Debt Could Drain Your Savings January 9, 2012 By David Zeiler, Associate Editor, Money Morning Now that Congress has allowed the U.S. national debt to grow bigger than the American economy, it won't be long until the American public suffers the consequences by losing most of its savings to inflation.Figures for last year show the national debt officially exceeded 100% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). According to government figures, the national debt stood at $15.23 trillion at the close of 2011, compared to a GDP of $15.18 trillion. "The 100% mark means that your...

Investors Haven't Been This Worried About A Stock Market Crash In Years Sam Ro Jan. 10, 2012, 7:21 PM The Yale School of Management regularly surveys individual and institutional investors on their stock market crash confidence. Specifically, they ask the survey taker how confident he/she is that the there won't be a stock market crash within the next six months. According to the latest read (h/t Bespoke), crash confidence is at its lowest level since early 2009. In other words, investors are increasingly worried about an imminent market crash. However, this could also be a bullish contrarian indicator. Back in...

Why Rising Debt Will Lead To $10,000 Gold Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jan 07, 2012 - 09:55 AM By: Nick Barisheff Good afternoon, it's a pleasure to speak about gold at this Outlook for 2012. Today, I'd like to focus on one important idea: the direct relationship between the rising price of gold and the rising levels of government debt that result in currency debasement. Since we measure investment performance in currencies a clear understanding of the outlook for currencies is critical. In order to understand gold's relationship, it's important to understand that gold is money. It is...

BOOM: Markets Are Off To A Dynamite Start In 2012 Joe Weisenthal Jan. 2, 2012, 5:56 PM Image: wikimedia commons US markets start the year tomorrow, but Europe wasn't bothered by the fact that New Year's Day fell on a Sunday, thus depriving the people of a proper day off. So the trading began today. The big gainer? Germany's DAX index, which gained over 3%. A strong German manufacturing number helped out. Also, manufacturing data out of India and China also helped. On the debt side of things, the Italian 10-year moved below 7% again, which is nice. Short-term rates...

Gold: This is What an Ex-Momentum Trade Looks Like Joshua M Brown December 28th, 2011 Momentum is mystical, no one can truly explain where it comes from, why it manifests itself the way it does, or why it seems to come and go so suddenly - capriciously, the jilted trader who bought at the top would say. But there is nothing quite so ephemeral or tantalizingly mysterious about the aftermath of momentum. It's brutal-acting and horrid-looking, it's lower highs and lower lows, it feels like give-up and the thwarted snapback rallies on the way get more and more feeble during...

2012 Offers Few Economic Reasons For Optimism Economics / Recession 2012 Dec 28, 2011 - 12:37 PM By: John Browne As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will...

In 2012 The Economy Will Be On 'Firmer, Albeit Unsteady, Footing' Peter Demirali, Cumberland Advisors Dec. 28, 2011, 4:51 PM The last twelve months have been quite remarkable in terms of volatility and absolute levels of interest rates. The bond market was whipsawed by events in Europe and Washington. Greece was the poster child for the debt crisis in Europe but it was merely the first country to feel the wrath of the capital markets. Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and ultimately Italy experienced difficulty accessing the cash markets to roll over debt. You can view the spreads on various European sovereign...

ANALYST: The Stock Market Is About To Crash Henry Blodget Dec. 28, 2011, 7:53 AM This time, says Zimmerman, it will be worse. Most of the folks who were dead wrong for years after the market low in March 2009 (see chart at right) have quietly given up, but at least one analyst is still calling for stocks to crash through those financial-crisis lows. United-ICAP senior technical analyst Walter Zimmerman thinks the S&P 500 will nose a bit higher in the early part of 2012 and then drop about 60% to 579.57, Tomi Kilgore of the WSJ reports. (That's 579.57--not...

Many Americans saw their hard-earned retirement savings virtually disappear during the 2008 financial meltdown--along with their confidence in being able to afford a comfortable retirement.

Richard Russell Explains The Technical Indicators That Make Him Bearish As Hell Gus Lubin Dec. 17, 2011, 6:42 AM Earlier this week Richard Russell told his subscribers to GET OUT OF STOCKS. He provides more detail on his bearishness today (via King World News): As subscribers must know, I'm not fascinated with the news, but I am fascinated with the markets and what they may be telling us. Among dozens of services, I follow two purely technical, market-oriented advisories -- Granville and Lowry's. I've followed these two since the early 1960s. Granville is now dead bearish based on his brilliant...

Should You Worry About Europe's Back Door Bank Run? December 16, 2011 By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings Inc. downgraded its credit ratings on five of Europe's biggest banks, and while that decision made headlines, it's not the most important story to come out of Europe this week. The real story, which the mainstream media is neglecting, is that there are signs of an underground run on Europe's banks. Almost nobody's talking about it, but there are indications money is already moving out of the European Union (EU) faster than rats abandoning a sinking...

The Great Repression: The Impending Economic Collapse Of 2012-2022 By John F. Carlucci December 8, 2011 Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In Part 1 of this series, Is This The Best Stock Market Indicator Ever?, I examined the technical indicator known as $OEXA200R, that is, the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 day moving average, found on StockCharts.com. The $OEXA200R can be thought of as a valuable early yellow light flashing 'bears ahead' or a confirmatory green light that we're really back in a bull...

ROSENBERG & SRI-KUMAR: A Eurozone Endgame Could Spur A 2000-Point Rally In The Dow Simone Foxman Dec. 1, 2011, 1:17 PM Gluskin Sheff + Associates' David Rosenberg and TCW's chief strategist Komal Sri-Kumar agreed on Bloomberg TV today that the Dow could see as much as a 2000-point move if somehow EU leaders managed to tackle the solvency issues at the heart of the eurozone crisis at their summit next week. Rosenberg and Sri-Kumar both poo-pooed yesterday's nearly 400-point rally in the Dow after the announcement of coordinated central bank liquidity measures. "When I look back at the historical data...

The Situation In Europe Sounds Kind Of Bad... Joe Weisenthal Nov. 29, 2011, 8:43 PM Image: Jo Jakeman via flickr Economics professor Karl Smith writes on his blog Modeled Behavior that the situation on the ground is more grim than people realize. It's no longer just about sovereign debt, and the ECB, but about a breakdown in the banking system. This malfunctioning appears to be down right mechanical with trades regularly not settling on time, collateral not being delivered, awkward interventions by local regulatory agencies and a host of other deep, deep problems. I don’t have it all sorted out...

Are Stocks Staring Into The Abyss? Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Nov 27, 2011 - 12:04 PM By: Robert McHugh PhD Europe’s financial woes are serious. We believe the financial crisis will hit the fan starting in 2012 which will eventually lead to a political union of several major European nations, perhaps even a broader political union of western nations including Great Britain, the United States and Canada. It may be what results from developing global economic chaos. This is Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down underway from May 2nd, 2011, a dangerous Bear Market wave of long-term duration. Life will...

The Game Is About DoneKarl Denninger November 23, 2011 It's pretty-much over at this point.... This morning Germany had a failed Bund auction. That's not particularly noteworthy; it happens from time to time. But what's noteworthy is what happened to bond yields everywhere through Europe in response: They blew out. The Greek and Italian "problem" is no longer about Greece and Italy. It has been creeping into Spain and more-recently France, but this morning jumped into Germany and everywhere else "all at once." Capital has said "no more" to the lies in Europe. While this does not mean an instant...

The Run On Europe Begins, As Global Investors Head For The Hills... Henry Blodget Nov. 20, 2011, 9:11 AM Until recently, the concern about Europe was mostly theoretical--a potential train-wreck that would occur if/when the world's lenders decided that the continent's problems extended beyond the basket case known as Greece to Europe's "core" and starting pulling back. Well, that concern is no longer theoretical. It's happening. The world's lenders are increasingly deciding that it's better to be safe than sorry, and they're pulling their money out of Europe As a result, the borrowing costs of many European countries are rising...

ECRI Recession Watch: Decline In Growth Index Continues To Moderate By Doug Short November 18, 2011 The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.9 in its latest reading, data through November 11. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's -8.5 and continues the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. Last week I posted the November 7th CNBC interview with Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. I'm again including video because ECRI continues to feature it on their website here, which I see as evidence...

MARKETS FALL AND THINGS GET WORSE AGAIN IN EUROPE: Here's What You Need To Know Simone Foxman Nov. 14, 2011, 4:00 PM Stocks tanked on a worrisome day of news from Europe and buzz about insider trading in Congress. But first, here's your scoreboard: Dow: -71.86 pts, -0.59% S&P 500: -11.54 pts, -0.91% NASDAQ: -20.46, -0.76% And now, the top stories: * Newly appointed Italian PM Mario Monti began talks today to form a new government. Analysts hope that his cabinet will hail largely from outside the political establishment and will swiftly pass new economic reforms to spur growth and...

Stock Market Poised For A Sharp Pullback Near Term Says Dr Copper Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Oct 21, 2011 - 12:59 AM By: David Banister Back on October 3rd I wrote a public article forecasting a major market bottom at around 1088 on the SP 500 index. I surmised we were about to complete a 5 wave move to the downside that commenced with the Bin Laden highs of 1370 in early May of this year. The following day we bottomed at 1074 intra-day and closed over my 1088 pivot and continued higher as we all know. That brings...

STOCKS TANK IN FINAL MINUTES OF THE DAY: Here's What You Need To Know Sam Ro Oct. 7, 2011, 4:00 PM More signs that the U.S. economy is not as bad as everyone thought. But, big downgrades in Europe bring us back to reality. First, the scoreboard: Dow: -18 S&P 500: -10 NASDAQ: -27 And now, the top stories: * The highly-anticipated September jobs data came out with a bang. U.S. companies added 103k non-farm payrolls. Economists expected just 60k. The July and August figures were both revised upwards. However, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1%, which wasn't a...

FINALLY, Asia Rallies, Korea Explodes Higher Joe Weisenthal Oct. 5, 2011, 9:36 PM After missing out on the recent rally, finally Asia is participating. While US futures are down modestly, Japan is up 2%, and Korea's KOSPI (after getting drubbed two straight days) is up huge.(snip)

Economic Growth According to the World’s Leading Economists By Bill Bonner 10/05/11 Paris, France – We were on the edge of our chairs yesterday. We wanted to see if the Dow would crash through the 10,000 barrier. A break below 10,000 would probably hit the markets like a drone attack on a birthday party… …perhaps causing investors to panic…and the feds to do something really stupid. The feds are getting ready. They’re being egged-on by some of the world’s leading economists. Nobel prize winner, Peter Diamond, for example, urges the feds to spend more money on infrastructure projects. Richard Koo,...

STOCKS STAGE ANOTHER MASSIVE GLOBAL RALLY: Here's What You Need To Know Sam Ro Oct. 5, 2011, 4:00 PM Talks of European bank recap and huge tech takeovers spurred another monster rally in the stock markets. First, the scoreboard: Dow: +131, up 1.2% S&P 500: +20, up 1.8% NASDAQ: +56, up 2.3% And now, the top stories: * Investors think Europe is moving in the right direction in fixing its debt crisis. Yesterday's global rally, sparked by talks of European Bank recapitalization, was reinforced earlier today when German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her country is "prepared to move to bank...

The Perfect Stock For A Dangerous World By Chris Mayer 10/03/11 Gaithersburg, Maryland – I was in Manhattan a few days before the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11. There were reminders of the upcoming anniversary all over the city. The date inspired a lot of reflecting on how America has changed since that horrible day. When I arrived in New York City, I didn’t intend to find an investment theme that grew directly out of the events of Sept. 11. I stumbled on it, by accident, at the Gabelli 17th Annual Aircraft Supplier Conference. My beat is financial markets. So...

The Most Dangerous Time Ever For Investors Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Sep 28, 2011 - 03:13 PM By: Andrew Snyder The government has taken control. No longer is Washington about justice and liberty. It's all about money. This is perhaps the most dangerous time ever to be an investor. Sounds dire, I know, but it is the truth. And it is not just us -- the outspoken pundits -- making the claim. It is everybody, everywhere. Guys like Warren Buffett, Bill Gross and Jamie Dimon have all cried out. Each of them has their own agenda, yet they point...

There Will Be Stimulus By James J Puplava CFP09/27/2011 The following is an edited, public version originally released to clients on August 19th, 2011 It is apparent from the incoming economic data that the economy is slowing rapidly in the US, Europe, and Asia. Unless countered with fiscal stimulus and more QE, it is looking more like there may be a double dip. As the four charts below from last month's economic data illustrate, the strong second half of the year forecast is looking less likely. From the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, August 2011 From the Federal Reserve Bank of...

ROB ARNOTT: We're In The Worst Depression Since The Great Depression Gus Lubin Sep. 23, 2011, 7:10 AM Rob Arnott says we're in the worst depression since the Great Depression and the Fed may be making things worse. Arnott, who oversees $80 billion at Research Affiliates, tells King World News: When real interest rates are 2%-4% and inflation rates are 2%-4% you get a really nice peak where the average P/E ratio is north of 25 times earnings. The interesting thing is both of these numbers are within the control of the Fed, the Fed can control the rate of...

REBOUND GONE: Europe Dives Into The Red, US Futures Slip Gus Lubin Sep. 23, 2011, 6:33 AM So much for the stabilization after Thursday's selloff. European markets have lost early gains, with the FTSE 100, the CAC 40 and the DAX off over 1%. Last night's unexpected G-20 statement pledging to take strong coordinated actions to support Europe apparently was not convincing. Dow futures point to a negative open, losing early gains of nearly 100 points. Here's a chart:

Asian Markets DIVE Sam Ro Sep. 22, 2011, 8:21 PM In the wake of the US market thrashing, Asian markets are waking up to a steep selloff. However, Korea is getting crushed with the Kospi down 3.4%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is down 2.1%. Japanese markets are closed as the country celebrates the Autumnal Equinox.

MAJOR RALLY COLLAPSES AHEAD OF HUGE DAY: Here's What You Need To Know Joe Weisenthal Sep. 20, 2011, 4:00 PM And now we're looking at two down days in a role. But first, the scoreboard: Dow: +10.67 NASDAQ: -21.19 S&P 500: -1.06 And now, the top stories: * It was actually a weird day, very unlike previous ones. Things really got started off with a bang last night when S&P downgraded Italy's credit rating, causing futures and the euro to tank. It's not that much of a surprise that people are losing faith in Italy, but still it came as...

Gold Still Looking Really Sick... Joe Weisenthal Sep. 19, 2011, 1:42 PM It just keeps getting worse today, not benefiting from the aggressive nervous selling in every market around the world.

Awaiting The Inevitable Correction In The Silver Price By Eric Fry 09/15/11 Laguna Beach, California – The International Can-Kicking Team is busy again today, as the European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve and three other central banks linked arms to kick the European debt crisis down the road until the end of the year. Specifically, the Can-Kickers announced that they would provide three-month US dollar loans to European banks to insure that the banks have enough liquidity to make it to the end of the year. If past scams of this nature are any guide, the “short-term” assistance will somehow...

Catastrophe Insurance By Bill Bonner 09/15/11 Baltimore, Maryland – “Retail Sales in US Unexpectedly Stagnate,” says a Bloomberg headline. Unexpectedly? Guess they don’t read The Daily Reckoning. Stagnating sales are what you get in a Great Correction. We’ve been saying so for the last 4 years. In an expansion, well…everything expands. Why make it complicated? In a contraction…everything contracts. What do you expect? That’s what it’s all about. That’s how it works. And when you have a consumer economy, what contracts most? Consumer spending, of course. Simple, huh? And when consumer spending contracts, business sales go down. Eventually profits go...

Deflation Is Here Graham Summers September 12, 2011 I’ve been warning that the markets were on the verge of another round of Deflation. By the looks of things, it’s here with the US Dollar breaking out of its massive wedge pattern. The ultimate target for this pattern is the mid-80s. So consider this latest breakout the first leg up of a much larger move that will affect all other asset classes in a big way. In order for a move of that caliber to occur in the US Dollar, we’ll need to see a full-scale crisis hit the markets (the...

Prepare For A Recession And Bear Market! By Sy Harding09/09/2011 Brace yourself for a recession. Central banks around the world seem to be doing so, making little effort to prevent it this time around, resigned to letting the business cycle play out. Stock markets around the world also seem to be doing so. In anticipation of economic slowdowns that won’t slide all the way into recessions, stock markets normally decline only into corrections (declines of less than 20%). But they plunge into bear markets when recessions loom. And global stock markets outside of the U.S. are already in full-fledged bear...

A Zombie Economy Following Unfaithful Shepherds By Bill Bonner 09/08/11 Baltimore, Maryland For the shepherds have become stupid and have not sought the LORD; therefore they have not prospered, and all their flock is scattered (Jer 10:21). The unfaithful shepherds…and the jackasses… A big day up yesterday. The Dow rose 275 points. Gold dropped $55. What’s the matter with investors? They should be selling gold AND stocks. Why? Because we’re in a Great Correction. Not a boom. Not a recovery. Not anything except a Great Correction. What does that mean? It means Mr. Market is correcting the errors of the...

StOCKS FALL ON HUGE DAY OF NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know Joe Weisenthal Sep. 8, 2011, 4:00 PM The selling wasn't too dramatic, and really coming after yesterday's monster rally, it might have been expected. Still... But first, the scoreboard: Dow: -119.01 S&P 500: -12.58 NASDAQ: -20.55 And now, the top stories: * Between Trichet, the Bank of England, Bernanke, Obama, the European crisis, and the economic data, we knew that today was going to be a big one. And it delivered. But if anything, equity markets were quieter than you might have expected them to be. *...

China Forecast: Cloudy With A Chance Of Rain By Chris Mayer 09/06/11 Gaithersburg, Maryland – Remember the phrase “Buy what China needs to buy”? It was a good thesis for us for years. I dipped the ladle into this idea bowl often. And the stocks of producers of potash, oil, iron ore and other stuff from the earth did well. But the tides of fortune ebb and flow. Will these commodities be good investments from here? First, let me state again what every investor in commodities everywhere should know by now: China is your biggest buyer. Take a look at...

Gerald Celente Disses Roubini After Moving 100% Into Gold Gus Lubin Aug. 30, 2011, 6:21 AM Image: KWN Notorious trend forecaster Gerald Celente has been fairly accurate of late, predicting a double dip and revolutions around the world. He drops some more wisdom in an interview with King World News: “What did Roubini say? Gold would be lucky to go to $1,100 an ounce. Where is it now? Flirting between the high $1,780s and $1,900s. There are a number of people like myself and others that believe it’s going much higher. You know I used to be in Swiss Francs...