[xzins]

I’ll be willing to spot Romney Indiana only.

After that, Virginia and North Carolina are his next best bets, but the demographics have changed considerably in those states, and considering them automatic is a mistake.

I’ll not spot Ohio or Florida to Romney. Ohio has gone democratic three out of the last five elections. Florida is also not automatic. It went bush, clinton, bush, bush, obama in the last 5 elections.

I believe that’s 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 x 2/5 x 3/5 = .8 x .8 x .8 x .4 x .6 = .12 For all of them with no exceptions to come out republican, based on their prior voting, there’s a 12% chance. That’s not anything I’d take to the bank.

At the same time, I don’t think that’s a valid statistical model. It would say the same for a very strong republican candidate or a very weak one.

I think it would be true for a Dole, worrisome with a GWBush, and ignorable with a Reagan.

Is Mitt Romney more a Dole, Bush, or Reagan?

It also depends on who the Democrats run. It makes a differce if you’re running against a Dukakis, a Gore, or a Clinton. Is Obama more a weak campaigner or more a Clinton?

I think Romney vs Obama is more Dole vs Gore. I also think Dole loses to Gore. In short, we’re running McCain again.

[KeyLargo]

"In short, we’re running McCain again." pAgree. Enough said.

Except I had to read through all of your gobelly gook to get to it........sarc

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for sharing your insights, dear brother in Christ!

Wide scale enthusiasm hasn't built for either Obama or Romney that I can see. And I haven't detected any charisma in Romney to build it. McCain had Palin for that - Romney doesn't have anyone yet.