The Politics of Troop Withdrawal

STANFORD, CALIF. - President Obama's bullish "new day on the horizon" speech in Kabul wasn't quite "mission accomplished" but he came close to that dubious claim.

The trip had the trappings and full-blown rhetoric of a carefully worked out campaign event to squeeze whatever political capital he could from the year-old killing of Osama bin Laden that is now an old story.

In five months, the first combat troop withdrawals will start taking place and Obama, with his job approval scores still stuck in the 40s, is reaching for any issue he can grab to offset his failures on the only issues that matter to most Americans: the economy and jobs.

In a televised speech to Americans from Afghanistan Tuesday, he declared that he had succeeded in winding down the unpopular and costly war that is now in its eleventh year.

Despite mounting evidence that the Taliban have not forsaken their mission to topple the Afghan government and bath the country in blood, Obama said the country was now on the brink of "a future in which war ends, and a new chapter begins."

Just a few weeks after Taliban forces launched a daring new attacks on the Afghan capital's security forces, here was the president claiming "we can see the light of a new day on the horizon."

It was a bravura performance, even by Obama's often exaggerated, over the top standards, flatly declaring "the tide has been turned" over the past three years.

"We broke the Taliban's momentum. We've built strong Afghan security forces. We devastated al-Qaida's leadership," he said.

But apparently the Taliban didn't get the message from the president's campaign headquarters or from his speech writers.

A mere 90 minutes after Obama's departure, Taliban terrorists reminded the young president that their ranks have not been decimated and that they can still attack the country's capital with impunity.

In a second major assault in Kabul in less than three weeks, Taliban terrorists wage a fierce and deadly strike in the heavily guarded capital, despite heavy security for the president's visit.

Seven people were killed and 17 were wounded as explosions shook the city for hours.

Press reports said the attackers not only "breached the defense perimeter" in Kabul, they claimed responsibility for the latest attack and brazenly announced their "spring offensive" will begin Thursday when they will unleash a new effort to retake lost territory.

Yet here was the president claiming that the U.S. had essentially achieved its goals and that the Afghans were now ready to take over full responsibility for their country's national security.

That struck news correspondents there as dubious at best and foolhardly at worst.

There was nothing in Obama's speech to "reflect the doubts of many American officials that the Afghan government or its military can hold its own against the Taliban with reduced support from the United States," wrote New York Times reporter Mark Landler this week.

Nor was there any flat out declaration of defeating the Taliban that once ruled Afghanistan and protected Osama bin Laden. Obama admitted that his administration "has been in direct discussion with the Taliban."

Indeed, he appeared to see a future in which there will be a role for the Taliban in Afghanistan. "Our goal is not to build a country in American's image, or to eradicate every vestige of the Taliban," he said.

But the Taliban are playing a waiting game and Obama has helpfully given them a date when the U.S. combat role will end. Armed with that information, they plan to unleash a renewed terrorist assault to regain power, and to offer sanctuary and support for future Osama bin Ladens.

Obama's speech pointedly exaggerated the ability of Afghan forces to take full control of the nation's security, say military analysts.

"Progress in creating effective Afghan forces is increasingly questionable, the insurgents are clearly committed to going on with the fight, and relations with Pakistan seem to take two steps backward for every apparent step forward," writes defense analyst Anthony H. Cordesman on the Center for Strategic and International Studies' web site.

Other terrorist groups are working side by side with the Taliban and Al Qaeda toward the same end: to topple the U.S.-backed government and install yet another Islamic dictatorship.

"Even now, months before any substantial drawdown, there are growing concerns about whether the Haqqani militant network, fresh from a blitz of attacks that paralyzed the capital for a day last month, poses a growing long-term threat," writes the New York Times' Kabul reporter Alissa J. Rubin.

"And mainstream Taliban leaders are still resisting talks, seemingly confident that they can secure both influence and territory on their own terms," Rubin says.

Obama's game plan for withdrawal has been planned right down to the wire with only one thing in mind: Election Day.

His withdrawal plan calls for pulling out 23,000 troops by September and there are internal discussions about possibly accelerating the troop pullout to boost Obama's sagging poll numbers.

The Gallup Poll had him in a virtual tie Wednesday with Mitt Romney who has been a sharp critic of his Afghan policies.

As unpopular as the Afghanistan war is, the strategic decisions in Obama's exit plan have too often turned into political decisions.

That is no way to wage war or execute a national security mission that have cost America dearly in blood and treasure.

Obama irresponsibly handed the Taliban a date certain when he would clearing out and now they're planning their march back into power as soon as we do.

This could be compared to Mussolini boasting about how Italy kicked Ethiopia’s ass in 1935.

Will Karzai make it out of Asscrackistan into exile with his head intact on his shoulders?

Or will the Taliban have his head on a pike an hour after the last Black Hawk lifts off from the Kabul Embassy roof?

“Despite mounting evidence that the Taliban have not forsaken their mission to topple the Afghan government and bath the country in blood, Obama said the country was now on the brink of “a future in which war ends, and a new chapter begins.”

Actually, this was Obama boasting about how the Taliban kicked our asses; the war is ending, and we lost (whatever that means, since nobody could paint a picture of what “victory” would entail). The West lost the Post-Christian Crusades because they couldn’t match the fervor of their opponents or kill them quickly enough to combat their higher birthrate.

To make that case he is going to have to deliver some tangible result to his voters and claim that it was the direct result of the withdrawl. Something like raising food stamp or unemployment benefits. I don’t see how he gets away with that in the next six months.

Thanks Kaslin.

[Zero]'s speech pointedly exaggerated the ability of Afghan forces to take full control of the nation's security, say military analysts. "Progress in creating effective Afghan forces is increasingly questionable, the insurgents are clearly committed to going on with the fight, and relations with Pakistan seem to take two steps backward for every apparent step forward," writes defense analyst Anthony H. Cordesman on the Center for Strategic and International Studies' web site. Other terrorist groups are working side by side with the Taliban and Al Qaeda toward the same end: to topple the U.S.-backed government and install yet another Islamic dictatorship.

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