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GOP senators wonder: Am I next?
Politico ^ | 05/09/2012 | Manu Raju

Posted on 05/09/2012 2:44:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

There’s a new rule in American politics: Republican senators and Senate hopefuls who are too close to Washington and show streaks of moderation are toast — or most certainly poised for a grilling of their lifetime.

Call it the Mike Castle rule. Or the Bob Bennett rule. Or, now, the Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) rule of politics.

Lugar’s Tuesday night blowout loss to Richard Mourdock is shocking to longtime fans and friends, but it’s hardly surprising to any student of Republican races in 2010 and 2012 — and to the 13 GOP senators taking stock of what all this means for them in 2014.

“It’s the environment we’re living in right now,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, chairman of the Republican Conference, told POLITICO. “There are lots of folks who are watching every member’s voting records; you’re not only going to be attacked by your opponent on the Democrat side, but there are obviously Republicans out there who may not like when you’ve been around a few years and you got a lot of votes.”

There are some notable exceptions to the Lugar rule — like Republican Sens. Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Bob Corker in Tennessee, who are skating by their primaries despite having a reputation as deal makers. And Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg, a tea party favorite, may very well lose in next week’s Senate primary.

But there is no denying that any member who breaks even episodically with conservative orthodoxy could face a serious primary, like Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch; flee the Senate before a potential intraparty fight, such as Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe; or see their careers ended in an embarrassing loss before they even get to the general election,like Lugar, Bennett and Castle.

And that means GOP incumbents are already preparing for 2014 challenges from the right to avoid pulling a Lugar of their own. Several senators are raising more money quicker, going home more often and setting up more robust campaign infrastructures well ahead of the usual schedule.

“I know we’ll have a primary,” Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) said of his 2014 bid for a third term.

Many of Lugar’s problems appear unique to his own race — he hasn’t lived in Indiana since 1977 — and some Republicans are quick to blame his struggles to running a flat-footed campaign.

“Basically, it’s the ABCs of politics: Stay involved; communicate with your constituents; be prepared to embrace a 21st-century campaign,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said, assessing Lugar’s problems.

“And own a house,” he added.

Yet despite his local problems, Lugar also couldn’t escape the reputation of being everything the tea party movement hates: a disconnected establishment Washington type known for making deals and occasionally breaking with the party.

Witnessing Lugar’s mistakes, Republicans are doing whatever they can to avoid appearing out of touch, stepping up their public appearances back home, rubbing elbows with local party activists, marching in parades and ramping up fundraising in the event they have to take out prospective primary challengers.

“I think everybody should pay attention to that,” said Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.), who will be up for a second term in 2014. “People want to see you [back home]. I just don’t think you can ever forget how important that kind of thing is.”

On the fundraising front, some of those who could emerge as top targets in either primaries or general election campaigns in the next cycle have been moving behind the scenes to rack up huge bank accounts at a much faster clip than previous cycles.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) already has amassed $5.1 million in the bank, more than double his haul from a similar period six years ago. Same goes for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), whose $1 million in the bank is more than triple the amount he had through the first quarter of 2006.

Graham’s $3.9 million in the bank smashes the $1.9 million in cash he had last time he was up, and Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s $721,000 haul is more than double the amount she had at a similar point in the 2006 cycle.

But it’s not all about hoarding money. Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who is 76, says he’s traveling across all 105 counties in Kansas in advance of his 2014 bid. Chambliss has been spending virtually every weekend traversing the state and has been selling his work to cut the budget deficit even if it tramples on the GOP’s anti-tax mantra.

“I’m not going to change my method of operation just for the sake of a primary opponent,” Chambliss said. “But obviously, you’re cognizant of things back home.”

Alexander, a longtime political figure back home, marched in the Mule Day parade in central Tennessee in March — where he sported his quintessential red plaid shirt — and he still travels the state playing the piano in local symphonies in Memphis, Jackson and Knoxville.

“Senators who stay closely connected to people at home are senators who are usually able to be reelected,” Alexander said.

Through his six terms in office, Lugar time and again has skated into office, winning every race for the past three decades with at least two-thirds support. He relied on his elder statesman status within the Hoosier State, deep knowledge on foreign policy issues and willingness to work across the aisle as his ticket to reelection time and again.

Brushing aside advice from party leaders to tear down his opponent, state treasurer Mourdock, Lugar was slow to respond to the criticism from the right, namely over his votes to confirm President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominees, support for the Wall Street and auto bailouts, penchant for earmarking and backing of the president’s nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

And Lugar was badly bruised through weeks of bad headlines over his failure to live in the Hoosier State for 35 years, instead keeping his residence in Virginia and staying in hotels when conducting official business back home.

It wasn’t until late in the game when Lugar began a scorched-earth campaign to tear down Mourdock.

“The story is play offense, not defense,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who tore down his primary challenger, J.D. Hayworth, in 2010. “And it ain’t bean bag.”

For Republican leaders, the story is also about engaging voters early and often — even if your race is years away.

“Part of it is anticipating the challenge and getting prepared for it, both in terms of fundraising and in terms of going home and making sure your constituents know who you are and know you’re up here fighting the good fight on their behalf,” said John Cornyn of Texas, head of the Senate GOP’s reelection efforts and a 2014 candidate himself.

McConnell — the wily Republican leader and top 2014 target for Democrats — is heeding such advice. A cutthroat tactician, McConnell is home virtually every weekend, tailgates at local football games, has traveled to 70 Kentucky counties in about a year and has developed deep opposition research files against his prospective opponents.

Asked if McConnell is susceptible to a tea party challenge, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) deadpanned: “Probably not.”

Other senators who are up for reelection are beginning to take stock in their own fates, as well.

The third longest-serving GOP senator, Thad Cochran of Mississippi, who took office in 1978, said that he travels back to his state about 18 times a year. Asked if he was concerned about a primary given his ways as an earmarker and long tenure in Washington, Cochran noted he’s never “faced serious” opposition in his time in office.

But the senator, who hasn’t spent much time fundraising for himself, was coy about whether he’d run in 2014: “I have not made any plans one way or the other.”


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; elections; gop; senators
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1 posted on 05/09/2012 2:44:31 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
"“It’s the environment we’re living in right now,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune..."

Thune (like David Souter) has been a great disappointment

2 posted on 05/09/2012 2:47:48 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

Yesterday, some galloping fairey at The NATION was lamenting the loss of “Pragmatic” Republicans (Democrat-Voting) in the Senate.

FUGG’EM....


3 posted on 05/09/2012 2:50:03 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: SeekAndFind
"Basically, it’s the ABCs of politics: Stay involved; communicate with your constituents; be prepared to embrace a 21st-century campaign,” Sen. Lindsey Graham "

Try, try, try to REPRESENT your State/Constituents/Country, b0z0s.

4 posted on 05/09/2012 2:50:24 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

And they should.


5 posted on 05/09/2012 2:51:30 PM PDT by T. P. Pole
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To: SeekAndFind

Sure would like to see the Kentucky Gobbler put out to pasture.


6 posted on 05/09/2012 2:52:04 PM PDT by crosshairs
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To: SeekAndFind

For the 10% of GOP Senators that are conservative, No.


7 posted on 05/09/2012 2:52:18 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
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To: Paladin2

Thune has been a tall squish mostly. Wouldn’t call him a RINO but a play-it-safe type. I keep getting letters from him in the mail to donate-— fat chance.


8 posted on 05/09/2012 2:52:24 PM PDT by tflabo (Truth or tyranny)
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To: SeekAndFind

They all need to switch to the party they have been most loyal to. Real simple. No more DNC/RNC. Should be Socialist or Conservative. Democrats in congress do not exist anymore. Republicans with power are mostly what an 80’s Democrat was, mushy. Pick a side and fight for what you believe.


9 posted on 05/09/2012 2:57:29 PM PDT by liberty or death
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To: SeekAndFind

After Utah Senator Bob Bennett was voted out at the convention in 2010, Orrin Hatch quickly found the conservative ‘light’ and changed his tune for 2 years. Orrin is all about the constitution and the 2nd amendment now, according to his commercials here in Utah. His time is up, hopefully we can vote Dan Liljenquist in to run the general election in November.


10 posted on 05/09/2012 2:57:46 PM PDT by Utah Girl (John 15:12, Matthew 5:44)
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To: SeekAndFind
“The story is play offense, not defense,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who tore down his primary challenger, J.D. Hayworth, in 2010. “And it ain’t bean bag.”

McCain gets it half-right ... the story IS play offense. Just against the Dems, NOT fellow Republicans or Conservatives.

Unlike what the MSM and others are saying, Lugar didn't fall victim to the Tea Party. He fell victim to the Senate Democrats, for whom he repeatedly rolled over and refused to stand up to from a position of strength. He got used, abused and left all alone on the floor by the likes of Schumer, Durbin, Levin and Reid ... and has no one but himself to blame.
11 posted on 05/09/2012 2:58:09 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: SeekAndFind
but there are obviously Republicans out there who may not like when you’ve been around a few years and you got a lot of votes.”

Silly me, I thought it had something to do with them being liberals.

12 posted on 05/09/2012 2:58:22 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: SeekAndFind

Saxby Chambliss definitely needs to go.


13 posted on 05/09/2012 2:59:26 PM PDT by Student0165 ("If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun." Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: SeekAndFind
Mention the words every career politician hates: "term limits"...


14 posted on 05/09/2012 2:59:40 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m disappointed that Levin is supporting Orrin “booby” Hatch. Hatch is way past his sell-by date.


15 posted on 05/09/2012 3:01:19 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (Chen Guangcheng: Gutsy call, Obama /UltraMegaDrippingSarc)
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To: SeekAndFind
What is dishonest about this story is what happens on the Democrat side.

Yes, Republicans have to face a Repbulican electorate that has tired of the constant caving to Democrats on most issues.

However, there is no mention that the Democrats rule their side with threats of no reelection funding by the leadership if they stray from the party line.

In summary:

Republicans fear their voter base.

Democrats fear their leadership.

-PJ

16 posted on 05/09/2012 3:01:45 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The TEA PARTY LIVES!


17 posted on 05/09/2012 3:03:03 PM PDT by DallasDeb (usafa06mom)
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To: SeekAndFind
“Senators who stay closely connected to people at home are senators who are usually able to be reelected,” Alexander said.

Good point, because if they stay connected, they'll HEAR what their constituents are saying, and realize that their re-election depends on keeping the folks back home satisfied.

18 posted on 05/09/2012 3:03:04 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: SeekAndFind

““I know we’ll have a primary,” Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) said of his 2014 bid for a third term.”

I am praying for the opportunity to vote against Chambliss in a primary.


19 posted on 05/09/2012 3:03:08 PM PDT by texteacher
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To: Political Junkie Too
Republicans fear their voter base.
Democrats fear their leadership.

Great summary that shows the difference between "We the people" and "We the ruling class"

20 posted on 05/09/2012 3:08:01 PM PDT by kosciusko51 (Enough of "Who is John Galt?" Who is Patrick Henry?)
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To: SeekAndFind
I don't see Jim DeMint agonizing over who will be going after him in his next* election!

(*hint* - if you are a strong conservative with a strong conservative voting record, you aren't in any danger of getting knocked off by patriotic Americans)

21 posted on 05/09/2012 3:11:13 PM PDT by Gritty (Washington no longer has a government; rather, it has a gangster regime - Jeffrey Kuhner)
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To: SuziQ

One more reason they should only spend about 90 days in DC every year.

My congressman entered a bill limit congress to 10 days in session per month. It didn’t go anywhere.


22 posted on 05/09/2012 3:12:43 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Political Junkie Too
In summary:

Republicans fear their voter base.

Democrats fear their leadership.

Nicely, and succinctly written. I agree completely

.

23 posted on 05/09/2012 3:15:00 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: SeekAndFind
“It’s the environment we’re living in right now,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, chairman of the Republican Conference, told POLITICO. “There are lots of folks who are watching every member’s voting records; you’re not only going to be attacked by your opponent on the Democrat side, but there are obviously Republicans out there who may not like when you’ve been around a few years and you got a lot of votes.”

Here's some free advice that's worth what you paid: Don't make stupid votes your constituents would hate.

24 posted on 05/09/2012 3:18:19 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hmmmm...has the Politico forgotten Sen. Joe Lieberman getting purged???


25 posted on 05/09/2012 3:20:03 PM PDT by Lysandru
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To: Student0165

He’s not conservative anymore?


26 posted on 05/09/2012 3:23:51 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: DallasDeb
Not if they keep supporting RINOs like Scott Brown and GOP party hacks like Kelly Ayotte. One thinks compromise is the way to fix things, the other has blind allegiance to the GOP - unless she's giving a speech or interview.
27 posted on 05/09/2012 3:29:00 PM PDT by Semper Vigilantis (Want to stop illegals and lower unemployment? Shut off the welfare faucet.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Yet despite his local problems, Lugar also couldn’t escape the reputation of being everything the tea party movement hates: a disconnected establishment Washington type known for making deals and occasionally breaking with the party.

Nobody gives a damn about breaing with the party. The "party" is the problem. It's about screwing over the people who elected you.

28 posted on 05/09/2012 3:38:07 PM PDT by Hugin
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To: SeekAndFind
Just like in "Braveheart" where the Clan leaders wonder who's next,

Then..."WHAM"!

29 posted on 05/09/2012 3:40:34 PM PDT by jaz.357
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To: SeekAndFind

I shall vote for any senate or house member, dem or rep, who is in favor of TERM LIMITS.


30 posted on 05/09/2012 3:43:13 PM PDT by 353FMG
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Comment #31 Removed by Moderator

To: SeekAndFind
if you don't get yer mind right... YES!!!
32 posted on 05/09/2012 3:58:05 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: SeekAndFind

I find it very telling that none of them were quoted as saying that sticking to conservative principles was all they needed to do to stave off a challenge.


33 posted on 05/09/2012 4:04:53 PM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Not Romney - Not ever!)
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To: SeekAndFind
GOP senators wonder: Am I next?

Yes, you are.

34 posted on 05/09/2012 4:05:34 PM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: NonValueAdded

Carl Levin, Sander Levin or our own Mark Levin?


35 posted on 05/09/2012 4:18:37 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
GOP 2014 microscope:

Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
Pat Roberts of Kansas
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Jeff Sessions of Alabama
Jim Risch of Idaho
Susan Collins of Maine
Thad Cochran of Mississippi
Mike Johanns of Nebraska
Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
John Cornyn of Texas
Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Grahamnesty, Floozy Collins, McCornhole, Suxby, and Lame Lamar walking the plank would be a GOOD start.

36 posted on 05/09/2012 4:26:56 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: BlackElk

The Great One himself, Mark Levin. I heard him yesterday, said he’d talked with Hatch. The problem is that Orrin has talked a good game before but then his actions exposed bhis talk as just that - talk.


37 posted on 05/09/2012 4:40:45 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (Chen Guangcheng: Gutsy call, Obama /UltraMegaDrippingSarc)
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To: dfwgator; fieldmarshaldj; EternalVigilance; Dr. Sivana

This brings to mind the scene in Braveheart when Robert the Bruce, having betrayed William Wallace at the Battle of Falkirk (1298) and, pondering the fact that Wallace is spectacularly and personally slaying the corrupt nobles, one by one, asks the utterly corrupt Scottish landed nobles (who sell their souls and sell out the Scottish people regularly to Longshanks for more estates): “Who is next? Could be any of you. Could be ME!!!”

Let each and every scumbag GOP “moderate” senator remember vividly the words of a secularly repentant Robert the Bruce to the Scottish peasants (armed with a few swords and farm implements) at Bannockburn (after Wallace was martyred by Longshanks and it was presumed that there was nothing left for the Scots but to pay tribute to Edward II) as Robert the Bruce turned to those utterly outnumbered Scottish peasants and asked: “Ye bled the ground red at Falkirk for Wallace. Will ye bleed wi’ me?” And so they did as will we until each and every elitist scumbag posing as a GOP senator or congresscritter or governor or POTUS is no more.


38 posted on 05/09/2012 4:47:31 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Lots of words in the article to never mention specific issues where some of the rejected senators ignored their constituents such as support for Dream Acts and amnesty and the 2010 START treaty, and many budget/spending issues.

They just don’t want to mention those little details. It’s just a rejection of ‘moderation’ and ‘compromise’ by the Tea Party crazies and other extremists.


39 posted on 05/09/2012 4:47:47 PM PDT by Will88
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To: VRWC For Truth

I don’t know anything about Sen. Pat Roberts (KS), but he’ll be 78 in 2014. Doesn’t he need a push out the door like Luger?


40 posted on 05/09/2012 4:50:00 PM PDT by Atlantan
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To: NonValueAdded

‘Tis a shame!


41 posted on 05/09/2012 4:50:11 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: VRWC For Truth

During (to some extent) and after Bannockburn, the Scottish Nationalist war leader under Robert the Bruce (the new William Wallace) was the dispossessed knight Sir James (The Black) Douglas. In his generation, the land-grubbing Scottish nobles and sellouts included one Sir John Cornyn (must have been an ancestor of the Texas Senator, no?). Senator Cornyn richly deserves defeat as well. Defeat Dewhust with Cruz this year and go after Cornyn next time.


42 posted on 05/09/2012 4:55:36 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline, Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Broil 'em now!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Our Republican Senators are tone deaf.

Sen. Lindsey Graham is a RINO..let alone a CINO.

McCain???? God help us if that moron keeps getting elected.

Luger needed to be gone...just like Bennet. And he whined JUST LIKE BENNET. I've zero sympathy for these guys.....

They just don't FREAKING get it!!

Hatch is done. Graham is done. To name just two.

43 posted on 05/09/2012 4:56:17 PM PDT by Osage Orange (The MSM is the most dangerous entity in the United States of America.)
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To: Semper Vigilantis

You probably have to be realistic about those states though. Can anyone more conservative than them get elected there? The key to me is that those names don’t show up as going to the liberal/Democrat side on any close vote losses for us. You can say that about Lugar who was one of a handful of Republicans voting for Obama’s Supreme Court noms, where we could have filibustered if Republicans stayed united. I’m not going to worry about how they vote in states like that if it isn’t a close call or we didn’t need their vote. Like Scott Brown on Obamacare, the best we can hope for from a state like Massachusetts is someone who will be the deciding vote for our side when it really counts.


44 posted on 05/09/2012 4:57:51 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: Phantom Phixer
I’m reconciled to Romney in the race—well, barring a miracle, that’s who we have. He could be worse—and worse is what we have now.(and if he’s re-elected....oy gevalt)So I’ll give Romney a horseyback ride to 1600 Pa Ave in Jan 2013 if he wants—he’s no prize but better than McCain, IMHO, and probably not a whole lot worse in a lot of ways than Dubya—probably smarter, and at least Romney might actually fight back. And with enough real conservative leadership in Congress to keep him on a short leash, Romney might do OK.

You couldn't be wrong on more levels. Dubya was a tax-cutter and a strong social conservative on abortion and gay marriage. Romney is neither. McCain understood the military and was also socially conservative on major issues. Romney isn't. Romney has shown he's not very smart. He just memorizes consultant talking points and doesn't understand a thing about any of the issues. When he has to decide something on his own off the cuff, he's a default liberal by nature of being a classic limousine liberal and living in a deep blue state. They live in a bubble and don't understand the first thing about conservatism. Romney has shown he will NOT fight Obama, but will cave in the minute it looks like the public is on Obama's side. And everyone knows the Congress will rubber stamp whatever Romney wants to do. That's what RINOs did under both Bush administrations, and they made more concessions to the left to get their votes if they needed them because the handful of true conservatives balked. You're living in a fantasy world and projecting wishful thinking onto a candidate who is nothing that you would like to pretend he is. Deal with reality, because only then can you possibly come up with the right strategy for fighting the problem.

45 posted on 05/09/2012 5:04:16 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
I think....freshman pubbies...get the what for...from the GOP-E "leaders"...quite often.

I'd gather, Allen West...could tell us a thing or two.

46 posted on 05/09/2012 5:09:27 PM PDT by Osage Orange (The MSM is the most dangerous entity in the United States of America.)
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To: Osage Orange
Yes, the freshmen do, but they don't have the vote discipline that the Democrats do.

-PJ

47 posted on 05/09/2012 5:15:01 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: Paladin2

Grahamnesty wouldn’t know the first thing about properly representing the people of SC! I can say with NO DOUBT that he will face a primary in 2014......I only hope the good people of SC will send McCAIN’s RINO buddy packing..


48 posted on 05/09/2012 5:21:52 PM PDT by jakerobins
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To: Political Junkie Too
Maybe so....

I don't know that for sure.

But it figures.

49 posted on 05/09/2012 5:23:39 PM PDT by Osage Orange (The MSM is the most dangerous entity in the United States of America.)
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To: nickcarraway

Chambliss never was conservative. He was a huge supporter of the Bush / Kennedy Ammesty mess in ‘06. So was Johnny Isakson.


50 posted on 05/09/2012 5:25:01 PM PDT by Student0165 ("If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun." Barack Hussein Obama)
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