[Calliecat]

Obama might have hurt himself with black ministers with the gay marriage thing, but in final analysis, I don’t expect blacks to desert him.

Agree, it will never happen.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Looking at the data, the Gallop poll of >3000 ‘registered voters’ showed it at a virtual tie (Obama +1). That a relatively large poll of registered voters shows it as a tie at this point is bad news for Obama, no matter how they try to spin it. Gallop had Carter up +8 over Reagan in May of 1980.

My gut tells me that Obama will lose by a substantial margin, but anything can happen with a volatile electorate.

[CA Conservative]

Obama might have hurt himself with black ministers with the gay marriage thing, but in final analysis, I don’t expect blacks to desert him.

Agree, it will never happen.

I agree that they will not vote for Romney. But they might just stay home over the gay marriage issue, at least a percentage of them. And Obama requires a huge turnout from blacks and young people to have a chance - two groups that traditionally do not turn out in big numbers, but did so in the last election for Obama. If they return to their usual voter turnout pattern, Obama is toast.

[HiTech RedNeck]

To go vote Republican this year, no. But many could sit out.