Posted on 06/06/2012 6:16:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Minnesota's constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage now appears to be in serious danger of failing, a reversal from a PPP poll four months ago when it led for passage by a 48/44 margin.
Now only 43% of voters support the proposed amendment, with 49% of voters opposed to it. The shift since then has come with independent voters. After previously supporting the amendment by a 50/40 spread, they're now opposing it 54/37. Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment (74/21) while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition (71/22).
Independents coming a lot closer to Democrats than Republicans on gay rights is becoming something of a constant in our polling. The GOP seriously risks antagonizing voters in the middle if it continues to pursue a far right social agenda.
Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that we've found in other states. Voters over 45 support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater 60/34 margin.
Voters in the state think gay marriage should be legal by a 47/42 margin, closely matching the numbers on the amendment. And when you expand the discussion to civil unions 75% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 21% who think there should be none. That includes even 55% of Republicans.
Republicans are headed for better news with their proposed amendment to require voters to show a photo identification when they go to cast their ballots. 58% of voters support that with 34% opposed. Republicans (84/10) are almost unanimously supportive of it and independents (58/35) strongly favor it as well. Democrats are opposed (36/54) but not to a large enough extent to come anywhere close to defeating the amendment.
Mark Dayton's still winning the battle of public opinion when it comes to state politics. He has a solid 49/36 approval rating. Meanwhile the Republicans in the legislature have just a 21% approval rating, with 61% of voters disapproving of them. That includes a 12/66 spread with independents. Democrats are strongly positioned to make major gains in legislative seats this fall, as they lead the generic ballot 48-36 thanks in large part to a 13 point advantage with independents. 2 other notes:
-Voters in the state support Sunday liquor sales by a 59/27 margin. There's a bipartisan consensus on the issue with Democrats supporting it 61/22, Republicans 46/38, and independents 68/23.
-Voters are closely divided on the Vikings stadium deal with 44% supporting it and 41% opposed. In January 59% of voters in the state said they were opposed to any public funding for a new stadium, but they also said by a 46/39 margin that they'd rather spend public money on a stadium than have the team leave. These numbers suggest grudging acceptance of the reality that there was either going to be public funding for a new stadium or the Vikings were going to be moving on.
One note about PPP’s accuracy... just a day before the Wisconsin recall elections, their polling says that Walker would win by 3 percentage points.
The result : Walker by over 7.5%. PPP was OFF by 4.5 points.
The problem we have is the way they set up the rules for this.
A under vote is an automatic NO vote.
Seems to me when they did the transportation amendment a under vote was a YES vote.
Or, put another way, it was off by 150%.
What poll had Walker winning by 8% Sunday or over the weekend?
What poll had Walker winning by 8% Sunday or over the weekend?
I don’t believe it.
If I recall correctly, they also had the North Carolina gay marriage ban a dead heat going into the election and it passed with a 20 point margin. They tend to way over sample democrats and under sample republicans, not surprising considering they are little better than a left wing push poll. I stick to Rasmussen.
this DNC push poll operation was spreading its usual lies that it was neck and neck now!
7 .5 % is not close.
why do we post Dem party financed push polls here ?
If this poll were right then it seems among the youngest and most niece of our population marriage is dead and moms & kids are screwed.
PPP is a fraudulent polling outfit. Well over 85% of Minnesotans from real polls want to pass the voter ID amendment. Since they are claiming that it is only 59%, I think we can safely assume they are off by almost 30% on all their other issues as well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.