Posted on 06/20/2012 5:53:31 AM PDT by Hojczyk
One of my favorite indicators, mentioned here back in March, is the FedEx indicator, and it is flashing bright yellow right now. The package shipping business is a highly sensitive indicator of aggregate decisions across the economy. Yesterday the Wall Street Journal updated the FedEx indicator with the headline: “FedEx Signals Economic Woe.”
A glance at sales and income from previous downturns shows how sensitive FedEx is to economic growth. Not only is FedEx the kind of company that catches a cold when the world economy merely sneezes. It is also the type that gets the sniffles when the data still give the economy a clean bill of health. .
[F]reight trends suggest a clear slowdown in Europe and a nascent one in Asia [and] may even be accompanied by a braking in the domestic market. Analysts at Credit Suisse note that April freight volumes in the U.S. fell 11% from March; typically the month sees an about 4% decline.
UPDATE: Today’s Journal offers this headline: “Steelmakers Gird for a Downturn.”
NEW YORK—The steel industry faces its worst prospects in four years, with prices and demand falling, prompting a call by industry executives to cut costs and shut unprofitable mills.
The gloomy outlook mostly reflects the European crisis and slowing construction in China. It represents a sharp contrast from earlier this year when, buoyed by the automotive and energy-extraction industries, steelmakers were able to push through price increases and step up production.
I’m sure Obama-Biden will tell us that prosperity is just around the corner.
Interesting. It agrees with my personal, anecdotal favorite - truck traffic. I’ve been driving up and down I-95 for the last couple of months and there hasn’t been much truck traffic to speak of.
I, personally, don’t think the recession ever ended - despite what Bernanke and crew might say.
Here in the midwest, it didn't end.
Now if you go to Wash DC and NoVa, it never started.
The price of steel has been outrageous for years now.... this drives up the price of everything... but what is the real reason for the pricing?
Government regulation and interference...
Combine that with the tactics of the steel nazi’s....
not good
I, personally, don’t think the recession ever ended - despite what Bernanke and crew might say.
Same here, but I think it’s like saying the sun sets in the west. Only by playing with stats and the technical definition of “recession” can they make that claim.
It reminds me of a very good college term paper that was making the rounds back in 1972 where the writer makes a compelling case that white is black.
Hmmm. I got a quote on a 40x80 steel building last year. It was $32k. I passed. Wonder if it would be cheaper now...
(imho) if it (the recession) never started in this area (NoVa and D.C.), one would have to know stimulus dollars were utilized to create a grand illusion in the region of NoVa and D.C. What percent of the stimulus-es went into this region (NoVa and D.C.) to prop the region up? Was the bailout of NoVa and D.C. equal and on par with the Wall Street bailouts?
How about a link?
My back-of-the-envelope index is rail traffic—More specifically, freight car loadings.
Railroads carry everything from raw materials to finished products made from those materials, and traffic volume has been tepid, at best.
One of the few growth areas in traffic this year, at least in the Eastern US, has been coal shipments—for export.
There is never a recession in DC.
All this BS about the recession ending 3 years ago is only correct in the district.
As for the rest of the country, it grinds on.
ED!
The CSX indicator near my house is down significantly. The number of trains is down better than 60% since 2008. I used to get stopped at least once a day at the CSX crossing near my house, now it’s more like once a week.
Bailouts benefit a few and all Americans are placed on the hook to pay the money back. (imho) Bailouts are monetary distributions and redistribution of the assets of one group to another group. It does not work (bailouts imho) to benefit anyone except a small select group of individuals (the chosen winners) and the (pay the) tab goes to everyone else whom were unlucky enough to be in the same room when the (chosen winners) group ordered dinner. Perhaps this is not a proper analogy yet the _resident just stated W ate this steak and drank heavily and left him (zer0) the tab to pay. Should not the _resident and congress be as concerned as We the Taxpayers when he (zer0) and congress eat the steak and drink heavily along with the selected chosen few, and send US (taxpayers) the tab? To read (the views regarding a possible QE3) one gathers an answer of NO. It is necessary! When those desiring the money of others are allowed to write the reviews, those who will be fleeced of their money should be (use a strong word here). What good does writing ones opinion do ... when one is out opinioned by bigger opinions and money?
Now this does not happen at this site (FreeRepublic), but out there ... on the public stage of doomed opinions it is common. The balance is tilted, as all know the playing field tilts in the direction (normally) of the good guys. This is real life. One wins by going against the tilt.
“Now if you go to Wash DC and NoVa, it never started...”
the rest of the country doesn’t start to heal until they start to hurt...
Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of shipping traffic, is a similar indicator for the global economy. Haven’t kept up with it lately.
When we visited there in April, I told my wife it probably comes down to pitchforks and Molotov cocktails.
Or permanent enslavement.
One or the other.
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