Posted on 06/27/2012 9:52:52 AM PDT by sunmars
Mitt Romney's support is up in Arizona following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning several provisions of the state's law cracking down on illegal immigration and the Obama administration's announcement that it will not process additional illegals arrested there.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 54% support to President Obama's 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) remain undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Fortunately, the Jewish vote is limited to a handful of Congressional Districts in already Democrat states. The only place Jewish votes could make a difference is Florida, though any swing in the Jewish vote would almost certainly be within an even bigger swing by other white voters.
Jews, like Catholics, are important sources of conservative activism and philosophy, but don’t count on their vote as a community.
He could "evolve" to pedophile "rights," and the NAACP would still grovel and follow him over the moral cliff.
I know that Hispanics are not 30% of the AZ electorate. But they are 20%. so if McCain had gotten 0% instead of 35% of the Hispanic vote, he would have lost AZ by 51%-47% instead of carrying it by 54%-44%. But, again, there is no chance that Obama will come close to 100% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he likely won’t exceed 70% no matter how much he panders), so Obama won’t come close to carryng AZ.
As for the Jewish vote, it is silly to use President Reagan’s 1984 landslide as a high-water mark for how a particular demographic group will vote. For example, Reagan did far worse among white voters in Western PA and many other parts of Appalachia than McCain did or Romney will do. So, yes, it is quite possible for Orthodox Jews to be more Republican today than in 1984.
The only people who think AZ is a “swing state” are democrat tools. It’s not and Obama had no chance of winning it, and he would not have carried it in 2008 even if McCain had not been the GOP nominee.
Obama, win or lose, is likely to do worse in EVERY state than he did last time. If I had to pick one he might do better in I guess I’d pick Maryland which is getting less and less Republican.
Obama, win or lose, is likely to do worse in EVERY state than he did last time. If I had to pick one he might do better in I guess I’d pick Maryland which is getting less and less Republican.
http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php
Check out that link from Dave Leip’s Political Atlas, you can make your own maps (it seems to be down as I type this cause of too many people trying to use the site). Note they use the proper color scheme which is red for DEMOCRAT. Red is the color of socialist parties the world over. This red blue thing happened by accident cause they used to rotate the colors on the map and the first time anyone cared about the map was 2000 but the media was all too eager to roll with it for future elections so as not to associate the democrats with the color of socialism. It would be easy to go along with the media and say “red” for Republican but I for one ain’t gonna. When I feel lazy I just type “GOP”, three letters just like “red”.
Anyway, Minnesota has gone the longest without voting GOP for President (72, Nixon) but losing streak aside it is NO WHERE NEAR the worst state. I fact I think 1984 was the last (and possibly only) time it was the state that gave the poorest percentage to the Republican nominee and that was only cause it was Mondale’s home state, it was not the most democrat state then nor has it ever been. Aside from “losing” (fraud) the Gubernatorial election 2010 was a good year for the MN GOP, took over both Houses of the legislature for the first time in decades.
Bush only lost it by about 4 points in 2004. If Romney is up by a decent margin it will be close and in play. There are at least a dozen states safer for Obama than Minnesota.
The most pro-Bama democrat states are in no particular order
Hawaii, his real home state which makes Illinois let alone Minnesota look Republican in comparison (there is ONE Republican left in the State Senate, ONE). Bush didn’t do too bad in 2004 but that’s cause they like incumbents. Obama got over 70% last time and will get over 60% this time. He could kill Michelle on live tv and he wouldn’t lose Hawaii.
Maryland, union dominated, lots of Black people, one of the most democrat states and showing signs of getting worse. It’s amazing to me that Bush 41 carried the state in 1988, the last time it’s gone Republican, the next time might be never.
Rhode Island, heavily democrat since they stole control of the statehouse in the 30’s (Fieldmarshaldj could tell you this story, I forget). From 1928 (it was still GOP then but heavily Catholic and the democrat Al Smith was a Catholic and he narrowly won) until now it’s voted GOP 3 times, all 3 landslide reelections of GOP incumbents (1956, 1972, 1984)
Vermont, White, rural, and historically THE most Republican state but increasingly liberal since being invaded by hippies in the 60’s. Obama won 2-1 over McCain, it was his second best state. It was also one of only 3 states where Bush did worse in 2004 than he did in 2000 when he got 40%. It’s small and less predicable than most of these other states and the local GOP is beaten down but still competitive but this is safe Obama and a good candidate to give him over 60% again.
Massachusetts, with HI and RI one of the most heavily democrat states. Romney’s “home” state (one of them anyway). It will be closer with him that it would have been with another Republican but he even comes within 10 points that means Obama is going down HARD.
New York, ‘nuff said.
Cali, see above. A couple locals told me they think Romney could win there, I think they are on the pipe. 2010 results were poor.
Illinois, more likely to go against him than Cali I’d say but it would have to be a hell of a landslide. One freeper insists it will be close cause 2010 was close, I disagree.
I misspoke on RI, they also voted for Ike in 1952.
It certainly should in California. How those people can put up with Depression-era unemployment and not at least think about voting red is beyond reason:
Highest unemployment rates May 2012
Yuma, Ariz. 28.9
El Centro, Calif. 26.8
Yuba City, Calif. 17.9
Merced, Calif. 17.3
Modesto, Calif. 15.6
Fresno, Calif. 14.9
Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. 14.8
Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 14.7
Stockton, Calif. 14.5
Madera-Chowchilla, Calif. 14.3
Thanks for the analysis. I am fired up to make IL a swing state. SCOTUS ticked me off today.
“Hussein has declared war on Arizona.”
Of course that is true, but something very interesting in this poll, that I believe many will fail to consider.
Arizona as a state is in a virtual “cold war” with the Obama administration.
Yet — even in Arizona — Obama seems to have a “baseline” of support that will never drop below 42-40%. I believe his support there will even -increase- between now and election day, perhaps to 45-46% or even a bit more.
Another poll out of Montana last week showed similar results. Obama was “holding” there around 42% — in conservative Montana, of all places!
To me, this is yet another indication of how “divided” America has become, with little “middle ground” to be found. Those on the left will “vote left”, even if the candidate is an all-but-undeclared communist (as Obama -is-). No amount of reason or logic will ever convince them otherwise.
(Disclaimer: no reason or logic will ever cajole me to vote for a ‘rat again!)
The fact that Obama is doing as well as he is in states like Arizona and Montana demonstrate that this election is going to be a close one, and it’s nowhere from over yet....
Is that really true? An accident? Nah, I think the media planned it that way.
BTW, what did they do for the color scheme of the electoral map in the days of black-and-white TV? I was around then, but I can't recall.
Thanks Impy (for both msgs).
Yes actually I think you’re right. I don’t know where I heard that they used to alternate colors but it turns out there was no consistency in what colors were used even in 2000.
With the map suddenly a big deal after the election, they all began to use Red for Republican and Blue for Democrat. That was a choice, as was choice of every outlet that use that color scheme before. The egghead media types that make these decision certainly know what they are doing.
Rasmussen Senate Poll. Flake leads Carmona by 47-31.
Rasmussen is standing in contrast to recent PPP polls showing both races close in Arizona.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.