The world's shifting centre of gravity {to the east!}

The Economist ^ | June 28, 2012 | Economist

[Cronos]

How the world's economic centre of gravity has shifted

IT IS not exactly news that the world's economic centre of gravity is shifting east. But it is striking how fast this seems to be happening. In a new study on the economic impact of urbanisation the McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the eponymous consultancy, has attempted to calculate how this centre of gravity has moved since AD 1 and how it is likely to move until 2025. Although the underlying maths (which involves weighting the approximate centre of landmass of a country by its GDP) has to be taken with a pinch of salt, the calculations show that the centre is rapidly shifting east—at a speed of 140 kilometres a year and thus faster than ever before in human history, according to Richard Dobbs, one of the authors of the study. The main reason for this is rapid urbanisation in developing countries, in particular China. As people are moving into cities many are becoming richer, driving further economic growth. Most of this growth will not occur in much-hyped megacities, such as Mumbai or Shanghai, but in what the authors call "middleweight cities". Few in the rich world would be able to identify these on a map. Ever heard of Foshan or Surat, for instance? (Hint: the former is China's 7th-largest city, the latter India's capital for synthetic textiles.)

[Cronos]

it's fascinating that the center shifted from Asia only after the 1820s as the industrial age progressed. And then the 1950s was the time of the turn-back.

[Cronos]

thought you might find this interesting

[jim_trent]

Why is it so far north? There is not much economic activity north of the line. Much more south of it. Doesn’t look like it could be balanced.

[alexander_busek]

Why is it so far north?

Because the shortest route from Europe to the U.S. is over the North Pole - not westward across the Atlantic.

Regards,

[blam]

Thanks.

Interesting, yes.

[SaraJohnson]

The homo pervert United States of the Soviet Union is not worthy of global influence and control. From an American-Ameerican cold warrior’s point of view, this is a switch from the committed dark side to the wannabe dark side.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Cronos. The population fluctuations would have a lot to do with this.

[odds]

>>>”Most of this growth will not occur in much-hyped megacities, such as Mumbai or Shanghai, but in what the authors call “middleweight cities”.”<<<

Most “megacities” are saturated markets, depending on industry or industries, so little possibility of growth.. whereas it would be possible to achieve “growth” in “middlewight cities”, depending on industry, population, skilled workforce, political climate, infrastructure, and, broadly, what I would term as “opportunities for Growth”. So, it is not Entirely surprising.

Didn’t read the rest of the Economist article, so not sure of details of their Entire mathematical or more accurately economic ‘calculations’ for the prediction/forecast - but seems a reasonable assumption.

[jim_trent]

Thanks. Makes sense.