BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE: RCP Electoral Map

Real Clear Politics ^ | RCP Staff

[pistolpackinpapa]

RCP ELECTORAL MAP: 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win

Obama: 221 ........ Toss Ups: 136 ........ Romney: 181

SOLID Dem: 175 ........ Leaning Dem: 46

SOLID GOP: 181 ........ Leaning GOP: 50

LIKELY STATES

OBAMA (175)

California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) District of Columbia (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New Jersey (14) New York (29) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12)

ROMNEY (131)

Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (38) Utah (6) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)

TOSS UP:

Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Missouri (10) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)

[Vigilanteman]

Any poll which lists North Carolina as "toss-up" is delusional. Obama won it by less than 0.4% in the Democrat banner year of 2008. The jackass governor and U.S. Senator cruised to huge wins that year and both are declining to run for re-election. That says a lot more than one poll.

Even the left-leaning New York Times has a way better analysis posted here.

With what Freepers on the ground have added, it may actually come down to New Hampshire's results in a razor thin election. Not exactly a friendly state to voter fraud.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

On that one point, we shall agree to disagree then.

:D

[pistolpackinpapa]

That is another reason why FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA, VIRGINA, OHIO and NEW HAMPSHIRE are so very important. Eastern Time Zones (Except for the Panhandle of FL.)

[pistolpackinpapa]

Please see my Post #20. That will answer your question.

[Wallace T.]

I just don't see North Carolina or Virginia repeating their pro-Obama vote in 2008; they will rejoin the Confederacy. OTOH, New Hampshire may fall in line with the rest of Yankeeland and provide a solid Obama phalanx from the Potomac to the Canadian border. Ohio's most recent polls do not look encouraging, with the pro-Obama margin wider there than in Florida or Pennsylvania. However, a Portman vice presidential nomination may turn Ohio Republican. The fallout from Obamacare may push Florida into the Republican camp, as the Medicare program will suffer severe cuts. A Rubio vice presidential nomination will almost assure a GOP victory in the Sunshine State. Pennsylvania always disappoints GOP hopes in the Presidential race, and the incumbent Democrat US Senator (Casey) has a double digit lead in the polls. The Scott Walker victory may be a harbinger of GOP victory in Wisconsin. The illegal immigration issue may assure a Republican victory in Arizona. The Mormon voters in Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona may allow for a GOP victory, especially if a Rubio vice presidential candidacy adds significant numbers of Hispanic voters to the Republican column.

One possible element that could hurt Romney is if the 10-15% of the Republican primary electorate that supported Ron Paul vote for the Libertarian Gary Johnson or don't vote at all. This election is going to be tight, and a 2-5% vote for Johnson could tip Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire into the Democrat camp. It will pay dividends if Romney plays nice with Paul and his supporters and gives him a half hour speaking engagement at the Republican convention.

The 2012 election may be something of a "tribal" affair, if Romney's Mormon "tribe" and Rubio's Latino "tribe" outweigh Obama's "tribes" of blacks and urban and union white liberals.

[EDINVA]

“Obama got a big Convention boost; McCain never caught up.”

Not exactly. McCain led until late September when the market tumbled and he briefly suspended his campaign. He never recovered from that. Convention bumps have a tendency to dissipate quickly.

[pistolpackinpapa]

I saw the NY Times article, but I didn’t think FR would let you Post NYT articles.

[libs_kma]

"Should be able to snare Ohio out of that group, especially as Ohioans view the unraveling economy, job scarcity, etc"

I'm in Ohio and there some big money already being spent to tie Obama and healthcare around the neck of the most liberal Senator, Sherrod Brown.

He's up at this point, but Josh Mandel is going to finish strong and I think he takes that seat away from Brown, and hopefully the end result is that Ohio goes back to Repub for 2012.

I think in 2008 people said, lets vote for Obama, how bad could it really be? And now they know...

[NonZeroSum]

When’s the last time Wisconsin went GOP?

A few weeks ago. The machinery that made it happen is still in place for the fall.

[jstaff]

Is it just me or did RCP make a mistake in their arithmetic. They give Obama 221, and that counts the “leaners”. For some reason they didn’t include the leaners in Romney’s totals. By my math, if you include the leaners for both sides, Romney has 181+50 for a total of 231, which puts Romney up by 10 using their numbers. Is this a typo, trick reporting, or my lack of coffee this morning?

[jstaff]

That solid GOP number should read “131”, per the RCP site.

[jstaff]

That solid GOP number should read “131”, per the RCP site.

[Charles Henrickson]

LIKELY OBAMA (175)
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)

LEANS OBAMA (46)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)

TOSS-UP (136)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

LEANS ROMNEY (50)
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
South Carolina (9)

LIKELY ROMNEY (131)
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

[Charles Henrickson]

270 needed to win. If Romney keeps all his “Likely” (131) and “Leans” (50), that gives him 181. 89 more needed to win.

Among the “Toss-ups” (136), let’s say he picks up Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Missouri* (10) for starters. That’s 67 of the 89 needed. 22 more to get to 270. Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10) together could put him over the top. Or one of those plus Colorado (9) and Nevada (6).

Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of those “Leans Obama” states—Maine (4), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), and Pennsylvania (20)—slip away from the Campaigner-in-Chief.

* Obama lost Missouri, where I live, even last time. I think Missouri should be listed as at least “Leans Romney.”

[ken5050]

Good post. Thanks. Remember, just after the 2008 election, we were told that the GOP was toast, kaput, finished. Heck, we might as wellc ancel the 2012 election and save millions..Obama was gonna be coronated in a landslide. Then, early this year, they started to talk about "alternate pathways" for Obama to get to 270. Trying to convince themselves, and keep the $$ flowing in.

This could well be another wave election.

[longtermmemmory]

the senior citizens are firmly in the zombie democrat votes.

senility rules.

They will talk a good game but once their dem precinct captain hands them the balloting sheet, they just vote democrat like good zombies.

we need our own voting sheets with the american flag on it.

[pistolpackinpapa]

Typo on my part. Sorry. Go on down to “Likely” and you’ll see Romney with 131 Solid and 50 Leaning - 181.

My bad.