Skip to comments.The Best Economic Indicator In The World Continues To Be Dead On
Posted on 07/08/2012 9:29:56 AM PDT by blam
The Best Economic Indicator In The World Continues To Be Dead On
Jul. 8, 2012, 7:15 AM
We love it: Initial jobless claims vs. the S&P 500.
The two lines continue to move very nicely with each other, even lately.
Note that the chart isn't updated with Friday's S&P move, which was lower...
The reason we like this chart is that for one thing, it's a pretty correlation. But beyond that, it's a reminder of what's driving this market. Fundamentals. There haven't been many periods where the two lines separated much, and where they did, it was always the market (blue line) that caught back up with the fundamentals.
When a real downdraft in initial claims happens, then it's time to be worried.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
BTW, I posted as Sara in the BI comments section...
Sara lost her posting rights recently when she got a little too rough on the boys over there.
Since when is a “correlation” an “indicator”?
2 data lines moving in tandem, don’t make one or the other a predictor.
The true “Best Economic Indicator” is the 10 yr. U.S. Treasury Bond...currently at 1.54%.
That is pitiful...
Thank you Obama, your plan for the destruction of America’s Freedoms and it’s economy is right on track.
He is actively regulating and taxing America into oblivion.
This is done with malice of intent, NOT ignorance.
“2 data lines moving in tandem, dont make one or the other a predictor.”
Thank you. If an upturn/drop in one usually PRECEEDED a similar action in the other than it would have some predictive value.
Shows you where you’ve been...not where you’re going.
I’ve got an indicator which works well for me and it’s very simple. If the price of gasoline is going up, then the economy is improving. If the price of gasoline is going down, then the economy is failing. It’s simple. Requires no computation. Seems to work.
Yep. Something about Supply and - - - - ? Darn! slight case of Halfheimers just struck! Sorry. I’ll have to get back to you. Continue on - - - .
Thanks, Blam, for exposing BI for what it is. I have been very suspicious for a long time why it is so frequently cited here at FR. It's a know-nothing site.
That should have been proven by this ridiculous article on a correlation between the stock market and first-time unemployment claims. Idiots with statistics calculators are a real bore.
I don’t believe this correlation. Show me that the correlation holds true back to 1980, and then I’ll believe it. They cherry picked one drastic event.