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As the first anniversary of the credit crisis approaches, it's clear that a major part of the problem was a spectacular failure of information, with complex asset-backed securities turning out to be far riskier than anyone thought. But as sophisticated as we consider ourselves, this is just a contemporary example of what might be called the Problem of the Oblong Dice. The first game of dice, played by ancient Greeks, Romans and Egyptians, used astragali, animal ankle bones that are more oblong than square. Yet rolls of the dice got the same score whether the dice ended up on a...

Why Can’t Our Media and Politicians Get The Oil Story Right? Of course the answer is quite simple! Our pathetic media and politicians can’t get it right because they don’t know how to analyze a market. After all, how many of them have actual experience in managing a client’s portfolio or traded a futures market? The problem is that their ignorance is having an outlandish impact on our lives as their ineptitude to understand and present the facts might very well lead to policies that will substantially hurt this country’s economy for a long time to come. We have precedence...

WASHINGTON, May 7, 2008 – Citizens of Basra, the third-largest city in Iraq, celebrated the opening yesterday of a central market that demonstrated a return of peace and prosperity to an area that until recently was a stronghold of Shiia militias. Iraqi children watch the grand opening ceremonies of the Jameat Market in Basra, Iraq, May 6, 2008. The children were released from school early to attend the community-building event. Royal Navy photo by Leading Airman Jannine B. Hartmann   (Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available. Schools closed early as families from the Jameat district gathered with local dignitaries,...

Employers trimmed a less-than-expected 20,000 jobs in April, marking the 4th straight month of losses; unemployment falls to 5%.

The government reports that the economy grew 0.6% in the 1st quarter, the same rate as in the 4th quarter of 2007.

"Mortgage Crisis," shouts the New York Times. The Times has used the term "subprime crisis" at least 11 times. Not in opinion columns -- in news stories. The columns are worse. Paul Krugman writes: "A lot of the financial system looks like it's going to shrivel up and have to be rebuilt." The "financial crisis," says Fortune's senior editor, "is threatening to bring down the entire system, with dire consequences." When the current troubles aren't a "crisis," they're a "disaster". That's what John McCain called them, while Hillary Clinton prefers "crisis," saying, "This market is clearly broken, and, if we...

Taxmares in Bushvilles UrbanSurvival is unfortunately a nonfiction writing operation. But, every once in a while an idea slams me across the right hemisphere that brings tears to my eyes because of what a fine nonfictional fiction plot it would make. [...] The plot of this [prospective novel] takes place in the many Bushvilles which I asked people to send in notes on in yesterday's column. These emergent new features of "Shruburbia" are popping up all over the country, although they seem to weight toward the Midwest and West. The author of Taxmares can set it almost anywhere in the...

Daily Market Commentary for March 28, 2008 from Millennium-Traders.Com It was a slow, sluggish and listless market session today with stocks moving in a very snug range that began late morning. Stocks merely drifted lower through out the trading day, with the major indices moving into lows of the session during late afternoon. Economic data released today did little for the mood of the markets, it simply was blasé. Day traders and investors seem tired from the week of trading and many cut their trading day short to get a jump start on a desperately needed weekend break. At the...

Southeast Asian central bank governors, plus South Korea and Taiwan, will discuss financial market uncertainty and dollar weakness at a meeting in Jakarta starting on Friday, Indonesian central bank officials said. The financial leaders of these exporting nations are meeting for two-days as policy makers globally try to tackle the global credit crisis that is threatening to drag on worldwide economic growth. The meeting "addresses the problem of uncertainties in the global economy which, by now, I think everybody has realised is getting bigger and we have to try to make efforts in these conditions to maintain macroeconomic stability," Burhanuddin...

No question, Bear Stearns Cos. evokes the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed it. Politicians are already making analogies to Herbert Hoover, the demon of that period, and Franklin Roosevelt, the angel. On March 16, Senator Schumer of New York said on television: "We're in the most serious economic problem we've been in a very long time — much worse than 2001. The president's hands-off attitude is reminiscent of Herbert Hoover in 1929 and 1930." Within 24 hours, Rep. Rahm Emanuel, a Democrat of Illinois, was weighing in with his own 1930s comparison. Roosevelt had pulled a...

The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 11:10am GMT 03/03/2008 Have your say Read comments The verdict is in. The Fed's emergency rate cuts in January have failed to halt the downward spiral towards a full-blown debt deflation. Much more drastic action will be needed. Read more from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 'Ninja' loans explode on sub-prime frontline Yields on two-year US Treasuries plummeted to 1.63pc on Friday in a flight to safety, foretelling financial winter. advertisement The debt markets are freezing ever deeper, a full eight months into the crunch. Contagion is spreading into...

European Stocks Rise, Asian Markets Mixed on US Public Holiday LONDON (AP) -- European stocks rocks rose Monday on speculation about possible new investment in the banking sector even as U.S. markets remain closed on Presidents Day, a public holiday. Asian markets were mixed. The U.K.'s benchmark FTSE 100 rose 2.75 percent to 5,946.6, while Germany's Dax Index gained 1.98 percent to 6,967.55. In France, the CAC 40 advanced 1.89 percent to 4,861.80. "It seems to be a combination of factors," said Keith Bowman, a broker at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers Ltd. "There was press speculation over the weekend that banks...

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February 14, 2008 -- IF you still don't believe me that the US government has an organization called the Plunge Protection Team that intervenes in the stock market, consider this: * A former Federal Reserve official proposed just such a market-rigging operation decades ago. * US Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, publicly brags that he has revitalized a group that some - including me - thinks is capable of rigging the market. * Paulson has admitted on TV that he regularly discusses financial trouble spots with "market participants," perhaps even at the Wall Street firm he once headed. * A former...

"I'm extremely worried," he says. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected." To Rogers, a longtime Fed critic, Bernanke's decision to ride to the market's rescue with a 75-basis-point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate only a week before its scheduled meeting (at which time they cut it another 50 basis points) is the latest sign that the central bank isn't willing to provide the fiscal discipline that he thinks the economy desperately needs. "Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc.,...

<p>Fed Cuts Rates by Half Point By BRIAN BLACKSTONE and HENRY J. PULIZZI January 30, 2008 2:18 p.m.</p> <p>WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its key lending rate by one-half percentage point, capping an unprecedented eight-day period in which officials slashed rates massively to ward off recession risks.</p>

The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002. Wednesday's Commerce Department report showed that the economy deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated. For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse was the biggest...

It was supposed to be a bad day in the American stock markets according to CBS's "The Early Show." Guess what - they were wrong. "Hong Kong's Hang Seng market was down more than 4 percent," Julie Chen said on the January 28 "The Early Show." "Tokyo's Nikkei index off about 4 percent. Wall Street may have a rough morning in advance of President Bush's final State of the Union address tonight. We'll be watching the markets throughout the morning."

Crisis grips European hedge funds Louise Armitstead A RAFT of European hedge funds have been forced to introduce emergency measures to protect their businesses from collapsing in the wake of the turmoil in financial markets. Up to 10 European hedge funds have suspended redemptions after investors clamoured for their cash when the managers made severe losses. A London prime broker told The Sunday Times that even before last week’s extreme gyrations, nearly two-thirds of London-based hedge funds had lost between 4% and 10% of their value. A “significant number” had lost much more, he said. The manager of one of...

“I don’t know where he is,” said Daniel Bouton, the long-standing chief executive and chairman of Société Générale, when he was asked on Thursday about the whereabouts of Jérôme Kerviel, the trader at the centre of one of the biggest frauds in banking history. But while Mr Kerviel’s movements remained unknown, the sequence of events that led to the extraordinary writedown at SocGen was becoming clearer. The trader joined the bank in 2000 and worked in Paris. The first three years of his career were spent in the bank’s so-called “back office” and “middle office”, where trades are settled...

There has been a great deal published about how the "Evil Americans" have caused foreign markets to stumble. I suggest we look in a different direction

The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years. However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.

A torrid rally in financial stocks resurrected a wheezing stock market, which suffered from recession fears but then rejoiced at a possible bailout of bond insurers by New York regulators. The Dow Jones Industrial Average languished with a 326-point loss at its early-afternoon nadir, but finished up 298.98 points, or 2.5%, at 12270.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 ended up 2.1%, or 28.10 points, at 1338.60. The broad measure's financial sector led the way, up more than 7%, with most of the gains coming in the wake of afternoon reports that New York state regulators were meeting with Wall Street...

Index Value: 12,162.38 Trade Time: 3:29PM ET Change: Up 191.19 (1.60%) Prev Close: 11,971.19 Open: 11,969.08 Day's Range: 11645.63 - 12163.44 52wk Range: 11,508.70 - 14,280.00

TOKYO - Asian stock indexes rose sharply Wednesday, rebounding from steep losses in the previous two days after a surprise interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index gained 423.82 points, or 3.37 percent, to 12,996.87 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in early trading. It had fallen 5.7 percent Tuesday — its biggest percentage drop in nearly 10 years — on fears of a recession in the U.S. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose as much as 3.1 percent in the opening minutes of trading. The Kospi slightly pared gains to trade up...

The fear is spreading. For months now, investors have been lured to overseas markets with the promise that surging growth and solid economic fundamentals in Asia and the Middle East would insulate them from the credit squeeze plaguing the United States market. But the broad international sell-off on Monday — and the prospect of a steep market decline in the United States on Tuesday — raised fresh concerns that a looming recession and the fallout from subprime mortgages could have global repercussions. Some analysts saw the sell-off, with leading indexes off 4 percent to 7 percent worldwide, as being driven...

[CAUTION: CONTAINS VULGAR LANGUAGE] Knees knocked last week from sea to shining sea as the shape-shifting monster of economic reality cut a swathe of destruction through the markets and financial ranks. The exact nature of this giant beast still remained largely concealed in a fog of accounting gambits, policy blusters, and reporting dodges, but a few intrepid scouts who glimpsed the behemoth up close said it looked like Godzilla with Herbert Hoover's face. George W. Bush tried to appease the beast by offering each American adult the dollar equivalent of half a month's mortgage payment -- with the exhortation to...

World stocks routed on fears for economy By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent Mon Jan 21, 2:29 PM ET LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks nosedived and demand for safe-haven bonds and currencies soared on Monday as fears gripped investors that a deteriorating U.S. economy would drag others down with it. The losses on the blue-chip stock indexes of Germany, Britain and France alone amounted to more than $350 billion, or roughly the size of the combined economies of New Zealand, Hungary and Singapore. MSCI's main world stock index (.MIWD00000PUS), a benchmark gauge of stock markets globally, sank 3.3 percent, falling...

The key Nikkei average plunged to hit a 27-month closing low on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday, after an outline of an economic stimulus package announced by U.S. President George W. Bush on Friday failed to rev up the U.S. stock market. The 225-issue Nikkei ended down 535.35 points, or 3.9 pct, from Friday at 13,325.94, the lowest finish since Oct. 25, 2005. It gained 77.84 points on Friday. The TOPIX index of all first-section issues, an 11.06-point winner Friday, was down 47.76 points, or 3.6 pct, at 1,293.74. Both the Nikkei and the TOPIX finished lower for the...

Following Asia's battered lead, European shares tumbled to some of their worst losses since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, knocked by worries the global credit crisis has much further to play out and that its ultimate effect will be a U.S. recession. For investors, there were no havens yesterday as shares, bonds and commodities declined. Companies normally seen as defensive, such as utilities, were whacked lower by the daylong rout. "It does feel like there is panic out there, and there is little sense that it is bottoming out," said Lucy MacDonald, chief investment officer of global equities at...

Equities sank on Monday, tracking sharp losses across Asia, after financial stocks seen as being exposed to the bond insurance market were stung. By the close in London, the main European indices were . The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 5.1 per cent to 1,288.80, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax shed 6.7 per cent to 6,825.63 . The CAC 40 in Paris lost 5.8 per cent to 4,798.66, and London’s FTSE 100 sagged 4.6 per cent 5,633.8. These were the worst one-day falls since September 11, 2001. The Eurofirst 300 and the CAC 40 were in technical bear-market territory, having fallen more...

Bleeding red across the globe. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_international.html?mod=mdc_h_intlsctnhd

As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues things are rapidly spiralling out of their control Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects. As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world's central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of...

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade hit their highest levels since 1973 on strong technical buying and bullish long-term fundamentals, which included concern over securing enough U.S. soybean acres for next spring. U.S. soybean acreages have fallen sharply as farmers jumped to corn amid a rally in prices of the other crop last year. In Friday's trading, CBOT soybeans for January surged as much as 17.25 cents to $11.78 a bushel. They closed at $11.77-1/2, up 16.75 cents CBOT corn for March rose as much as 10.5 cents to a 11-year high of $4.48 a bushel on indications...

ECB's liquidity move produces mixed reaction An aggressive move by the European Central Bank to pump liquidity into the banking system produced mixed reactions in financial markets yesterday. The ECB supplied €348.6bn to banks in its two-week operation at 4.21 per cent after it scrapped the normal upper limit on the amount it would lend. Two-week euro Libor was set at 4.40 per cent, down 54 basis points from Monday's fix. The one-month rate fell 33bp and the three-month contract fell nearly 10bp - the biggest drop in six years. Yet Gabriel Stein at Lombard Street Research warned that if...

Wall Street Has 2nd Straight Rally on Rate Cut Hopes, Signs That Financials Are Finding Cash NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street barreled higher Wednesday for the second day in a row, propelling the Dow Jones industrials up more than 300 points after a Federal Reserve official hinted that the central bank may lower interest rates again. Investors' renewed hopes for a rate cut added to their relief that companies that made losing bets on subprime mortgages, such as Citigroup Inc. and Freddie Mac, are coming up with ways to raise cash. Early Wednesday, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn told...

No one knows how severe the slump will be, but economists and real estate experts interviewed by The Times, and who were willing to make predictions, said prices could fall 15% to 25% before turning back up. Most said values would continue falling through at least next year, and some thought the market wouldn't reverse course until 2010. That could translate to big declines for home buyers who bought at the peak of the market, which various measures place in late 2006 or early 2007. For example, a home that sold for $800,000 in 2006 could fall to $600,000 over...

SHOULD WE BE worried about the U.S. dollar falling to all-time lows vs. foreign currencies? Does it matter to investors? Yes it matters, and yes you should be worried — but not for the reasons that you may think. First, let's get all the wrong reasons out of the way. One reason you hear all the time is that the U.S. is growing slower than the rest of the world, so global investors want to move out of dollars and into the currencies of countries that are growing faster. Fine — China and some other emerging markets are growing faster....

BAGHDAD, Nov. 7, 2007 – Just a few months ago, Operation Rogue Thunder began to reclaim the streets of Jamia and Adel, Iraq, from the grip of violence. Today, the streets not only are peaceful, they’re also thriving. Troops from 3rd Battalion, 5th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army Division Military Transition Team; 1st Battalion, 64th Armor Regiment; and their Iraqi counterparts have seen what was once a community gripped by fear come out of hiding and begin living for the first time in a long time. Before the joint operation in July took place, many residents were being oppressed by militia...

Top 5 Declining U.S. Markets Published on: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 Written by: Elizabeth Smith Although the overall U.S. population grew by 6.39 percent between 2000 and 2006, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, certain areas of the nation actually declined in population during that period. Many of those areas also experienced negative economic factors and job losses. An abandoned train station in Detroit, MichiganNuWire analyzed Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and divisions of MSAs with populations of more than one million to determine the Top 5 Declining U.S. Markets. Each of these markets experienced negative job growth between 2000 and...

It's been called the most important securities fraud case to reach the Supreme Court in years, with fortunes riding on the decision and the scandal of Enron just in the background. But after oral arguments yesterday, it doesn't seem like much of a cliffhanger. In this artist's rendering, attorney Stephen Shapiro argues before the Supreme Court on behalf of Charter Communications shareholders. In this artist's rendering, attorney Stephen Shapiro argues before the Supreme Court on behalf of Charter Communications shareholders. (By Dana Verkouteren -- Associated Press) TOOLBOX Resize Text Save/Share + Digg Newsvine del.icio.us Stumble It! Reddit Facebook Print This...

The Dow and S&P 500 jumped to close at records on Tuesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed inflation expectations were contained, leaving open the question of whether another rate cut is near. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 120.80 points, or 0.86 percent, to end at 14,164.53 -- a record. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index nded up 12.57 points, or 0.81 percent, at a record 1,565.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished up 16.54 points, or 0.59 percent, at 2,803.91. During the session, the Dow reached an intraday record high of 14,166.97 and the S&P hit...

The market volatility of late summer, which included a huge drop in stock prices from August 6th to August 9th, prompted the financial press to look for a scapegoat. Several journalists and commentators settled on quantitative hedge funds, or “quants,” as the culprits. But did the media get it wrong? New research suggests so. Quant funds are part of the revolution in finance that has taken place over the last 30 years. They employ sophisticated computer models to select long and short trading positions. But the late-summer market turbulence bruised their image. One Wall Street Journal article detailed “How the...

On Monday morning, as fresh news of severe losses by the giant financial groups, UBS and Citigroup, revealed even more damage inflicted by this summer's credit squeeze, the reaction of stock markets was clear. They rallied. In Monday's trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, still the most widely watched index of the US stock market, managed to top the all-time peak itreached on July 19. This was broadly representative of the most important developed market indices. The US S&P 500 index and Germany's Dax index are within 1 and 2 per cent respectively of their mid-July highs. Neither the S&P...

Bear Stearns, its shares and reputation beaten down after the collapse of two hedge funds, is in serious talks to sell as much as 20 percent of the firm, with several individual investors, including Warren E. Buffett, expressing an interest, people briefed on the discussions said today. Other investors who have expressed an interest in buying a minority stake include the Bank of America, Wachovia and two Chinese institutions — the Citic Group and China Construction Bank, these people said. Such expressions of interest will help bolster Bear and its chief executive, James E. Cayne, who has struggled to restore...

old that Porsche? The Wall Street bonus picture is bleaker, by Street standards at least. While the summer may have started with the long-term bonus outlook for Wall Street seemingly strong, it's ending with bankers and traders expecting lower bonuses, or even layoffs. It's still early to be getting a firm read, but given the subprime crisis, credit crunch and market unrest, the early talk is of lower payouts for the first time in five years, especially in fields related to fixed income, hedge funds and alternative investments. (Many people in Wall Street jobs get most of their compensation through...

Just a few weeks ago, Fortune magazine pronounced the world to be in "the greatest economic boom ever." This may be, but the turmoil in stock and bond markets poses some unnerving questions. Is the global economy stable? Or might its periodic crises someday lead to a calamity? Go back a century, and the world also enjoyed a fabulous boom. From 1896 to 1913, trade roughly doubled. Declining steamship and telegraph costs were melding countries together. "There was something close to an integrated world market for most goods," writes Harvard political scientist Jeffry Frieden in his book "Global Capitalism." In...

Wall Street plunged again Thursday after problems at Countrywide Financial Corp. confirmed fears of widening credit woes and the Federal Reserve injected $17 billion into the banking system. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 250 points.

Markets fear there is more to come By Katherine Griffiths City Correspondent Last Updated: 12:15am BST 13/08/2007 Turmoil is expected to continue in global stock markets as fears abound that some of the world's biggest banks might be sitting on heavy liabilities from the US sub-prime meltdown. US housing crisis deepens Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are among the latest banks to be caught up in the maelstrom because they are creditors to HomeBanc, the US mortgage company which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection at the end of last week. BNP Paribas, which sent shockwaves through the financial markets last...

The Chinese government has hinted that it may liquidate its vast holding of US Treasury bonds, potentially triggering a crash in the dollar, if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation, The Telegraph reported. The paper said that two Chinese officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning, for the first time, that China may use its 1.33 bln usd of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. Xia Bin, finance chief at China's Development Research centre, which has cabinet rank, commented last week that China's foreign...