Keyword: markets

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  • Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

    Tyler Durden November 10,2016 Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? Certainly not Wall Street experts, all of whom warned of drops as big as 5% should Trump be elected. And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all jumping (Nikkei was up a whopping 6.7% after losing...
  • Paul Krugman’s ‘Global Recession’ Prediction Lasted as Long as He Was Asleep

    11/10/2016 8:20:46 AM PST · by Beave Meister · 6 replies
    The National Review ^ | 11/9/2016 | PAUL CROOKSTON
    Paul Krugman has already had to walk back his prediction of a global recession following Donald Trump’s presidential victory last night. His initial post on the New York Times’ website was confidently apocalyptic about the prospects of Donald Trump plunging the world into a depression: “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.” He concluded by saying, “So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.” Markets rebounded in...
  • S&P & Nasdaq Limit-Down, Erase 2016 Gains, Peso Plunges To Record Low As Trump Victory Looks Assured

    11/08/2016 10:18:59 PM PST · by blam · 23 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 11-9-2016 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler DurdenNovember 11, 2016 This chart tells the whole story of the night: Trump - the massive underdog - appears to have pulled off precisely what he promised to do: Brexit times 10, having won virtually every key battleground state including Ohio, North Carolina and moments ago, Florida.(snip)Lots of charts, go look at them.
  • Stock Futures Jump After FBI Boosts Clinton's Chances

    11/07/2016 3:21:54 AM PST · by expat_panama · 43 replies
    Investors Business Daily ^ | 11/06/2016 Facebook | ED CARSON
    S&P 500 futures jumped Sunday after FBI Director James Comey said in a letter to Congress that the agency continues to believe that Hillary Clinton should not be prosecuted for her handling of emails. Futures for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 rose more than 1% Sunday evening. The S&P 500 has fallen for nine straight sessions, its longest losing streak since 1980s. The Nasdaq's nine-day decline is its longest since 1984. On Oct. 28, the FBI's Comey said that he was investigating new emails related to Clinton's private email server while secretary of state. That news up-ended the...
  • Civil War II - Fourth Turning Is Intensifying (Part 2)

    11/05/2016 4:41:53 PM PDT · by Perseverando · 20 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | November 5, 2016 | Jim Quinn
    In Part One of this article I laid out the case against the criminal establishment and how the regeneracy is being driven by the anti-establishment sentiment sweeping across the land. This atonement Fourth Turning will de-establish decade’s worth of delusional decisions. This election has destroyed the last vestiges of trust in this fraudulent system. This dysfunctional rigged presidential election reflects the tearing of the civic fabric at points of maximum susceptibility. As a country we have neglected, denied, or delayed necessary action on a plethora of vital issues threatening our long term viability as a nation. The deferral of difficult...
  • Civil War II - Fourth Turning Is Intensifying (Part 1)

    11/04/2016 9:37:28 PM PDT · by Perseverando · 13 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | November 4, 2016 | Jim Quinn
    “History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997 As we enter the final stretch of this vitriolic, deplorable, venomous, propaganda saturated, deceitful,...
  • The Consequences of a Trump Shock [THE LIBS MAY BE SELLING LIKE CRAZY]

    10/31/2016 4:46:06 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 44 replies
    project-syndicate ^ | OCT 29, 2016 | SIMON JOHNSON
    WASHINGTON, DC – With the United States’ presidential election on November 8, and a series of elections and other political decisions fast approaching in Europe, now is a good time to ask whether the global economy is in good enough shape to withstand another major negative shock. The answer, unfortunately, is that growth and employment around the world look fragile. A big adverse surprise – like the election of Donald Trump in the US – would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession. There is always a great deal of insight in the International...
  • Report: Trump victory will likely lead to major downfall of global financial markets

    10/22/2016 4:06:53 PM PDT · by Eleutheria5 · 113 replies
    AOL News ^ | 22/10/16
    X On Friday, the non-partisan Brookings Institution released a paper which describes the expected impact of the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election on the global financial markets, reports the Huffington Post. Authored by the University of Michigan's Justin Wolfers and Dartmouth College's Eric Zitzewitz, the piece notes, "...we estimate that market participants believe that a Trump victory would reduce the value of the S&P 500, the UK, and Asian stock markets by 10-15%, would reduce the oil price by $4, would lead to a 25% decline in the Mexican Peso, and would significantly increase expected future stock market...
  • Pressure is building for Germany to show it's ready to rescue Deutsche Bank

    09/29/2016 3:56:36 PM PDT · by SkyPilot · 38 replies
    CNBC ^ | 29 Sep 16 | Jef Cox
    German officials could be about to find themselves in an uncomfortable position: Being called on to show they're ready to rescue a bank in a part of the world where such operations are considered taboo. Deutsche Bank came under intensified market fire Thursday, the latest salvo being a Bloomberg report that a small number of hedge funds are trimming their sails at the German bank. In a broad perspective, the move would represent a minor dent in Deutsche's derivatives clearing business. Barry Bausano, chairman of Deutsche's hedge fund business, told CNBC on Thursday that while there have been some outflows,...
  • How Hillary Clinton’s health scare threatens the markets [DUMB 1/2 SELLING OFF!!!]

    09/12/2016 3:29:24 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 15 replies
    Market Watch ^ | Sept 11, 2016 5:59 p.m. ET | Brett Arends
    Are you prepared for the unthinkable? Is your portfolio prepared in case Donald Trump, rather than Hillary Clinton, wins the White House on Nov. 8? Very few are. But after this weekend they need to be. The video footage of Hillary Clinton’s health “episode” on Sunday morning is not good. A member of the public, using a cellphone camera, filmed the former secretary of state being helped into a van by aides after apparently being overcome by heat at the 9/11 ceremony. She had left the event abruptly. The so-called “optics” are damaging... ...she is 68 and the Trump campaign...
  • Sell Everything"... But Why: What Has The Smartest Investors So Spooked?

    08/08/2016 4:35:18 AM PDT · by blam · 19 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 8-8-2016 | Tyler Durden - Nick Colas
    Submitted by Nick Colas of Convergex Many of the smartest investors out there hate stocks. Since May, we’ve heard negative equity calls from Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross. Wall Street lore says “Never argue about markets with a guy who is much richer than you”. So we’ll take the discussion in a different direction: what do they know? Successful investors are always more plugged in than the market as a whole – hence their success. And while we can only guess at the lynchpins of their negative take on stocks, we do have some...
  • DOW 50,000!

    07/21/2016 5:08:55 PM PDT · by blam · 59 replies
    The Soverign Investor ^ | 7-21-2016 | J.L. Yastine
    by J.L. Yastine July 21, 2016 A massive stock market rally is at our doorstep, according to several noted economists and distinguished investors. Larry Edelson, a Money and Markets editor, predicts: “The Dow Jones Industrial will lead the way higher and catapult to 31,000 over the next two years.” Ron Baron, CEO of Baron Capital, thinks: “It’s going to be 30,000.” Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, believes it will go even higher: “The Dow Jones Industrial Average will surge to 38,820 in a ‘super boom’ beginning in 2017.” However, Paul Mampilly’s “Dow 50,000” predication is really...
  • 3 Reasons to Worry That Stock Rally’s End Is Near

    07/21/2016 3:49:45 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 7 replies
    Barrons ^ | July 20, 2016 | Michael Kahn
    In technical analysis we are taught to trade what we see and under that directive the stock market, or at least the larger capitalization end of it, has a significant breakout in place. After nearly two years of sideways trading, albeit with some large swings, the indexes finally gave what should be an important buy signal. But is it really? It sure walks like a duck, as the old saw goes. But it is quacking like a platypus.......What really bothers me is the lack of dissent in the bullish chorus...   ... many sentiment surveys still show doubt in this rally....
  • USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Higher, BoC Business Survey Next

    07/04/2016 7:30:24 PM PDT · by Tolerance Sucks Rocks · 6 replies
    Market Pulse ^ | July 4, 2016 | Kenny Fisher
    The Canadian dollar has posted gains on Monday session, continuing the upward trend which marked the Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2860. The Canadian dollar posted strong gains on Friday, which was somewhat surprising as Canadian markets were closed for Canada Day. US markets are closed on Monday for Independence Day, so there are no scheduled US events. Canada will publish Manufacturing PMI and the BoC Business Outlook Survey. With the financial markets understandably focused on the stunning Brexit vote, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has shifted to the back-burner. That could change later this week, with the release of...
  • BREAKING: Britain's FTSE 100 index recovers all losses from Brexit

    06/29/2016 9:03:44 AM PDT · by C19fan · 107 replies
    Reuters on Twitter ^ | June 29, 2016 | Staff
    BREAKING: Britain's FTSE 100 index recovers all losses from Brexit
  • History Predicts How Bad The Post-Brexit Market Volatility Will Get

    06/28/2016 4:27:45 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 44 replies
    Investors Business Daily ^ | June 272, 2016 | PAUL KATZEFF
    How long will the Brexit meltdown continue? How far will the market fall? It's impossible to say for sure, of course. But if history is any guide, then you should expect about a month of market weakness and nearly an 11% decline before the next upturn. WPERS_01_062716This could help guide any post-Brexit investment moves you're weighing. Friday's 3.6% tumble in the market -- measured by the S&P 500 -- jibed closely with the 3.5% average first-day market decline sparked by all sorts of shocking stock market news since World War II. That includes bombings and assassinations, according to a Monday...
  • Jim Rogers on Brexit: 'Worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime'

    06/27/2016 10:55:41 AM PDT · by GilGil · 81 replies
    Yahoo ^ | 6/27/2016 | Lawrence Lewitinn
    The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. “This is going to be worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime,” he said on Yahoo finance’s “Market Movers” program Monday. “2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have...
  • Dow falls 650 points; financials tracking for worst day since 2011

    06/24/2016 12:33:40 PM PDT · by dragnet2 · 64 replies ^ | 6/24/2016 | Dow falls 650 points; financials tracking for worst day since 2011 Evelyn Cheng
    Just wait until EU member countries start falling like dominoes.
  • MARKET MELTDOWN £100billion wiped off FTSE 100 as within minutes as world markets go into freefall

    06/24/2016 2:51:23 AM PDT · by SkyPilot · 73 replies
    The Sun ^ | 24 Jun 16 | John Pettitt
    MORE than £100billion was wiped off the London FTSE 100 this morning within minutes and the value of the pound crumbled as world markets were gripped by Brexit panic. The City was facing its third biggest fall of all time, shedding 458 points in a massive selloff, with shares in Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland tumbling by around 30 per cent. Experts warned of more carnage to come with fear gripping world markets seeing Japan briefly shut down and European stock markets all in free fall. Britain also looked set to lose its triple-A rating after 52 per...
  • Brexit: Global markets stunned as UK is set to leave European Union

    06/23/2016 9:56:08 PM PDT · by NRx · 103 replies
    CNBC ^ | 06-24-2016 | Holly Ellyatt
    Markets around the world have been roiled by the shock result: In Japan the Nikkei 225 was down some 7.5 percentSterling has fallen 10 percent against the dollar and 3.35 percent against the euro.The prices of Brent and WTI have both dropped some 5.8 percent.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen 12.5 percent.Dow futures now down 700 points
  • Saudi Authorities Panic As Speculators Drive Currency Down

    06/06/2016 1:26:43 PM PDT · by bananaman22 · 19 replies ^ | 06-06-2016 | ZH
    With Saudi Riyal forwards plunging back below 3.81, dramatically weaker than the current peg, Bloomberg reports that Saudi authorities are cracking down on currency traders as speculation mounts that the world’s biggest oil exporter won’t be able to maintain the riyal’s peg to the dollar as revenue plunges. Saudi Arabia ordered banks in the kingdom to stop selling some products that allow speculators to bet against its currency peg just days after demanding information from lenders on the offerings, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency sent a circular to banks this week saying...
  • Bull Market in False Prophets

    05/25/2016 6:31:49 AM PDT · by SkyPilot · 4 replies
    Rapture Ready ^ | 25 May 16 | Wilfred J. Hahn
    Usually, long experience and practice is something of great merit. Presumably, with age comes much knowledge and useful perspective. That is not necessarily so in today’s world of political economics and financial markets. Today, long experience is more likely to be a hindrance … a so-called mill stone around the ankle. One is not so free to accept farcical policies and quick-fix solutions. It appears that the economic “body of knowledge” accumulated in the standard text books over the last 50 to 150 years or so no longer has any application. No need apparently. New enlightenment is all that is...
  • Eco News Good, Markets Down [w/ DAILY INVESTOR THREAD]

    05/16/2016 4:25:18 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 9 replies
    Barchart ^ | May 16, 2016 | Nick Mastrandrea
    Good Morning Traders,As of this writing 4:05 AM EST, here’s what we see:US Dollar: Down at 94.535. The US Dollar is down 58 ticks and trading at 94.535.Energies: June Crude is up at 46.93.Financials: The June 30 year bond is down 7 ticks and trading at 166.16.Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 6 ticks and trading at 2045.00.Gold: The June gold contract is trading up at 1282.50.  Gold is 98 ticks higher than its close.Initial Conclusion This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is down- and crude is up+  which is normal and the 30...
  • Are Stock Market Bears About to Get Clobbered Yet Again?

    04/14/2016 4:27:49 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 43 replies
    The Fiscal Times ^ | April 13, 2016 | Anthony Mirhaydari
    On the surface, Wall Street is in the midst of an uneasy standoff. After a historic nine-week rebound rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average now trades near levels first reached in late 2014, just below massive resistance around 18,000. The trading range between 17,800 and 17,500 has contained trading since the middle of March. Yet a new long-term bear market seems to have started last May, based on the pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index, both of which are trading at levels first reached in late 2013. U.S. investors...
  • Titan Falling – Pershing Square and Bill Ackman Face Dark Days

    04/05/2016 11:33:18 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 2 replies ^ | April 5, 2016 | Steve Sherman
    Last fall, I wrote a piece about Hedge Fund Billionaire Bill Ackman and his unmitigated assault on the health products company Herbalife; Battle of The Hedge Fund Titans. It was an interesting piece about one man’s personal vendetta and attempt to take down a famously successful American company. The short of it (no pun intended), is that Bill Ackman used his hedge fund company, Pershing Square, to take a $1 Billion short position in Herbalife. Thus, banking on the failure of the company to profit immensely, while actually attempting to trigger that failure. Herbalife fought back and the demise of...
  • US existing home sales tumble in warning sign for housing market

    03/21/2016 3:50:30 PM PDT · by familyop · 16 replies
    Reuters, CNBC ^ | Mar 21, 2016 | Reuters, Gina Francolla, CNBC
    U.S. home resales fell sharply in February in a potentially troubling sign for America's economy... February's decline weighed on investor sentiment, with the S&P 500 stock index falling after the data was released. Sales fell across the country, including a 17.1 percent plunge in the U.S. Northeast...Shares of homebuilders briefly fell more than 2 percent after the news, including William Lyon, D.R. Horton, Beazer Home and PHM.
  • Global fears as markets lose faith in central banks

    03/06/2016 5:42:37 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 23 replies
    The Times ^ | 7 Mar 16 | Patrick Hosking, Financial Editor and Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor
    The global economy is heading for a storm as faith in policymakers dwindles, according to a stark warning from one of the world’s most respected financial institutions. The uneasy calm in financial markets last year has given way to turbulence, the Bank for International Settlements, known as the central bank for the world’s central banks, said in its latest quarterly report. Financial markets are losing faith in the healing power of central banks and their latest policy weapon - negative interest rates - to boost the world's main economies, the bank said.
  • Cost of first-class letter to drop to 47¢ effective April 10

    03/01/2016 9:40:35 AM PST · by SoFloFreeper · 32 replies ^ | 2/25/16 | Bill McAllister
    A rare drop in postal prices will become effective Sunday, April 10, the United States Postal Service announced Feb. 25. The decrease, which results from the expiration of a temporary rate increase ordered in late 2013, had been widely anticipated. It will be only the third time that there has been “a general reduction in postage rates,” according to the Alliance of Nonprofit Mailers.
  • What Happens if Something Goes Right? [SOMETIMES ECONOMY/MARKETS IMPROVE]

    02/23/2016 4:13:51 AM PST · by expat_panama · 10 replies
    Trinity Asset Management ^ | February 22, 2016 | Brian Gilmartin
    Most investors can talk valuation until they are blue-in-the face, but I've learned to ignore the charts at significant peril. [click to enlarge] The above link is the weekly chart of the SP 500, and as readers can see, the SP 500 remains above its weekly trend line off the March, 2009 low. A lot of technicians are watching 1,950 as a key technical level over which the SP 500 must trade to begin to repair the technical damage suffered over the last 8 -- 9 months. Bearishness is at long-term extremes. The political rhetoric is anything but "free-market". Mark...
  • We Desperately Need a Twenty-First Century View of the Economy.

    02/21/2016 1:33:12 AM PST · by M. Dodge Thomas · 22 replies
    Evonomics ^ | 02-21-2016 | Nick Hanauer and Eric Beinhocker
    For everyone but the top 1 percent of earners, the American economy is broken. Since the 1980s, there has been a widening disconnect between the lives lived by ordinary Americans and the statistics that say our prosperity is growing. Despite the setback of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy more than doubled in size during the last three decades while middle-class incomes and buying power have stagnated.... (yet) for too many families, the American Dream is becoming more a historical memory than an achievable reality. These facts do not just highlight the issues of inequality and the growing power of...
  • What's behind the global stock market selloff?

    02/12/2016 6:59:26 PM PST · by MtnClimber · 35 replies
    Reuters ^ | 12 Feb, 2016 | DAVID RANDALL AND DAVID GAFFEN
    Global stock markets are on their shakiest footing in years. Investors are fleeing stocks and running to safe-havens like bonds and gold, driven by concerns about economic growth and the effectiveness of central banks' policies. At the same time, tumbling energy prices are upending the economies of oil-producing countries, further slicing into global economic growth. Only six weeks ago cheap oil prices were still expected to cushion the global economy, and the Federal Reserve's decision in December to raise interest rates for the first time since the end of the financial crisis in 2008 was widely seen as a vote...
  • Global Markets Are Selling Off

    02/11/2016 6:17:20 AM PST · by blam · 44 replies
    BI ^ | 2-11-2016 | Akin Oyedele
    Akin OyedeleFeburary 11, 2016Here we go again. Major global stock markets were sharply lower on Thursday, with US futures also deep in the red ahead of the market open. Near 8:56 a.m. ET, Dow futures were down about 250 points (1.6%), S&P 500 futures were down 29 points (1.6%), and Nasdaq futures were down 60 points (1.5%). Investors were piling into gold for safety, with futures up 3%, or a whopping $36.30 an ounce to as high as $1,231.50, the strongest in a year. US Treasurys — another safe-haven asset — were also getting a huge bid, pushing the yield...
  • "I Don't Trust Deutsche Bank" David Stockman Unleashes Truth Bomb

    02/09/2016 4:33:25 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 14 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 9 Feb 16 | Tyler Durden
    "I Don't Trust Deutsche Bank" David Stockman Unleashes Truth Bomb: "When The Crunch Comes, Bank CEOs Lie" Following this morning's proclamation by Deutsche Bank co-CEO John Cryan that Germany's largest bank is "rock solid," David Stockman exposed the ugly truth that everyone appears to have forgotten from just 7 years ago... "in my experience is that when the crunch comes, bank CEOs lie" Stockman details the Morgan Stanley, BofA, Lehman, and Bear Stearns bullshit that occurred before exclaiming... "I don't trust Deutsche Bank. I don't trust what they're saying. And there's reason why the banks are being sold all across...
  • Trump: Markets in a 'big, fat, juicy bubble'

    02/08/2016 3:03:00 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 55 replies
    CNBC ^ | 8 Feb 16 | Jacob Pramuk
    Amid another battering for stocks Monday, billionaire businessman Donald Trump contended that markets still look overvalued. "I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're in a big, fat, juicy bubble," the Republican presidential candidate said on CNBC's "Power Lunch." Major U.S. stock averages were down more than 2 percent each Monday afternoon, continuing a rocky year in which the S&P 500 has fallen 10 percent. Fears about slowing growth in the United States and around the globe have contributed to the recent selling. Trump, who was in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday's primary voting, criticized the state of the economy...
  • Gold Surges Back Into The Green After $1.2 Billion Morning Plunge

    02/05/2016 12:47:53 PM PST · by amorphous · 4 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 5 Feb 2016 | Tyler Durden
    After someone decided to dump $1.2 billion notional in gold futures this morning as the jobs data hit - sparking a $20 tumble in the precious metal - it appears stock sellers are greatly rotating to the safety of bullion (over bonds)...
  • Now Among Largest Firearms Investors, Soros in Gun Control Scheme to Dump Stocks

    02/01/2016 8:10:18 AM PST · by Perseverando · 22 replies ^ | January 29, 2016 | Mac Slavo
    Do you see the puppet strings? The plot to disarm Americans and suspend the 2nd Amendment is working with furious pace. But it is anything but head on. The 2nd Amendment makes gun ownership an inalienable right and guarantees armed and formidable populace. The NRA and other lobbies have gun rights firmly entrenched in the Republican party. So the other side works the back door. Infiltration, sabotage and other dirty tricks. Is that what is happening? By all appearances, Soros, the elite wolf in sheep's clothing has been investing in firearms companies not to profit from them, but to destroy...
  • Mansion prices hit new highs in super-rich enclaves

    01/29/2016 3:54:57 AM PST · by SkyPilot · 8 replies
    CNBC ^ | 28 Jan 16 | Robert Frank
    Mansion prices show no signs of slowing in rich enclaves such as the Hamptons, Beverly Hills and Aspen, suggesting that the global market panic has yet to spread to top trophy homes. According to sales data from Douglas Elliman, the median sales price in Beverly Hills for a single family home jumped 54 percent in the fourth quarter over the same period last year, to $5.5 million. In Aspen, the median single-family home price increased 35 percent to $6.7 million and 2015 was the market's best year ever for sales. In the Hamptons, a record number of homes sold for...
  • Corporate Bonds Pass An Ominous Milestone (Recession likely)

    01/28/2016 7:47:24 PM PST · by GilGil · 4 replies
    Felder Report ^ | 1/28/2016 | Jesse Felder
    The spread between the yield on corporate bonds and that on treasuries passed the 2% mark yesterday for the first time in over three years yesterday. In the chart above I’ve annotated with red vertical lines the prior two occasions when spreads widened to this degree for the first time in at least two years. Notice that each of the two prior occurrences led to painful bear markets and recessions. Now this indicator alone isn’t sufficient evidence that another painful bear market and concomitant recession are on their way. However, when you pair it with the all the other data...
  • Sanctions And Low Oil Prices Deepen Russian Recession

    01/28/2016 2:16:36 PM PST · by familyop · 10 replies ^ | 26 January 2016 | Andy Tully
    The Russian economy's heavy reliance on energy, plus Western sanctions imposed because of Moscow's role in the Ukraine conflict, have left the country in its worst financial position since the depths of the global financial crisis eight years ago...About half of Russia's annual budget relies on revenues from its prodigious production of oil and gas,...
  • Volatility In Oil Markets Hits A 7 Year High

    01/20/2016 12:56:01 PM PST · by bananaman22 · 1 replies ^ | 20-01-2016 | Volatile
    Everyone knows that oil prices have crashed, and that has opened up a variety of avenues for investors to play the market. Some may have been burned by staying long on the energy sector, others have tried to pick the bottom. Other investors have found ETFs that track the price of WTI, or ETFs that trade inversely to oil prices, which amount to bets that prices will fall further. In these uncertain times, one strategy would be to bet not on oil prices rising or falling, but simply bet on oil price volatility. If that was your strategy, you probably...
  • Soon Comes The Deluge [David Stockman's Corner - The Market]

    01/20/2016 9:01:18 AM PST · by amorphous · 27 replies
    David Stockman's ContraCorner ^ | 19 Jan 2015 | Cavide Stockman
    The robo-machines are now having a grand old time hazing the August lows at 1870 on the S&P, and may succeed in ginning up another dead-cat bounce or two. But this market is going down for the count owing to a perfect storm. To wit, the global and US economies are heading into an extended deflationary recession; S&P earnings peaked at $106 per share more than a year ago and are already at $90, heading much lower; and the central banks of the world are out of dry powder after a 20-year binge of balance sheet expansion. The latter is...
  • All Stock Markets Down (noon, EST): DOW -475,NASDAQ,AMEX, S&P -175..."Not Oboma's Fault" ABCNNBCBS

    01/15/2016 9:52:43 AM PST · by Robert A. Cook, PE · 10 replies ^ | 01-15-2016 | RACookPE1978
    Not much to say ... Only another few trillion lost from the pension funds, IRA's and 401K invested "for the future" ... So, when will the powers-that-be decide that "money" trumps "their liberal ideology" so the money stops protecting and defending democrat politics?
  • Trump Now Best Bet to Win GOP Nomination, Say Free Markets

    01/13/2016 12:04:41 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 10 replies
    New York Magazine ^ | 01/13/2016 | Eric Levitz
    Donald Trump is now the odds-on favorite to be the GOP’s 2016 standard-bearer, according to two top betting markets.The London-based Betfair gave Trump a 34 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination as of Wednesday morning, three percentage points ahead of Establishment-favorite Marco Rubio, with Ted Cruz laying claim to a distant third place at 22 percent. This is the first time Trump has ever enjoyed front-runner status on Betfair. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s PredictIt has Trump trading at 40 cents a share, Rubio at 29 cents, and Cruz at 23. Trump first gained the top spot on PredictIt last week,...
  • Bank Of America Just Laid Out Why Its Clients Are Wrong About The Bond Market

    01/12/2016 12:29:52 PM PST · by blam · 10 replies
    BI ^ | 1-12-2016 | Matt Turner
    Matt TurnerJanuary 12,2016Bank of America Merrill Lynch's high-yield team is bearish. So bearish, in fact, that it is getting into debates with its clients and colleagues over exactly how bad it is. "It is our fear that many of the signs we see in high yield ultimately foreshadows further economic and risk asset malaise in 2016 and 2017," the team led by Michael Contopoulos said Monday in a note. "However, as we sort through the financial press releases and discuss our views with investors and internally, we realize our disposition is perhaps on the unconventional side of where most currently...
  • The Weekend Is Over, And The Markets Are Falling Again

    01/10/2016 7:03:10 PM PST · by blam · 51 replies
    BI ^ | 1-10-2016 | Sam Ro
    Sam RoJanuary 10, 2016 World markets are open for Monday trading, and they're down. US futures are in the red with Dow futures down 120 points and S&P 500 futures down 13 points. Asian markets are also set to trade in the red. All this follows last week's bloodletting, which saw the S&P 500 fall 6%. It was the worst first five trading days in history.There's no shortage of explanations for all this: * You have the Fed, which tightened monetary policy with an interest rate hike in December. * You have oil prices, which are a struggling to find...
  • Mid-East Massacre: Equity Markets Plunge From Bahrain To Kuwait

    01/10/2016 12:08:40 PM PST · by blam · 6 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 1-1-=2-16 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden1-10-2016 With all eyes focused on tonight's China open (and the "oops, China matters after all" meme), the Middle-East has fallen off the front (or back) pages of mainstream media. However, the last few days have been a bloodbath (analogistically as opposed to literally) across the Middle-East with Saudi stocks plunging 2.5% overnight (down almost 13% in the last 5 days) and every market from Bahrain to UAE all tumbling below August lows. Saudi's Tadawul Stock Index has collapsed in the last few days and is now unchanged since May 2009.(snip)
  • Rig Count: Capitulation?

    01/09/2016 7:35:24 PM PST · by familyop · 17 replies ^ | 09 January 2016 | Arthur Berman
    ...Fayetteville Shale play officially bit the dust...tight oil horizontal rig count was down by 20...Bakken-Eagle Ford-Permian HRZ rig count was down by 14. The Bakken lost 3 rigs, the Eagle Ford, 4, and the Permian, 7.
  • These Shale Drillers Could Soon Default As Credit Options Run Out

    01/09/2016 4:54:54 PM PST · by familyop · 5 replies ^ | 06 January 2016 | ZeroHedge
    So, without further ado here are 25 deeply distressed companies, whose banks we found have quietly shrunk the borrowing base of their credit facilities anywhere from 6 percent in the case of Black Ridge Oil and Gas to a whopping 51 percent for soon to be insolvent New Source Energy Partners. [Link to chart here.]
  • China's 'national team' props up the yuan but other Asian markets slide – live

    01/07/2016 10:55:05 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 15 replies
    The Guardian ^ | 8 Jan15 | Martin Farrer
  • This investor called the financial crisis - and is predicting market falls again

    01/07/2016 4:19:53 PM PST · by SkyPilot · 24 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | 7 Jan 16 | Kyle Caldwell
    Martin Gray, one of a handful of fund managers who made money during the financial crisis, is concerned global equity stock markets are ripe for a fall An investor who delivered a 12.3pc return for investors during the financial crisis despite global stock markets falls has said he is moving into cash again and "cannot help but feel bearish" about shares. Martin Gray, formerly of fund firm Miton but now running his own business, Coram Asset Management, is concerned that "overvalued" stock markets are ripe for a fall. Mr Gray's former fund, Miton Cautious Multi Asset, was one of just...