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Solar storm incoming: Federal agencies provide inconsistent, confusing information
Washington Post ^ | 7-13-12 | Jason Samenow

Posted on 07/13/2012 3:32:39 PM PDT by dynachrome

A wave of plasma stoked by an X-class solar flare, the most intense type, is headed towards Earth. This blast of charged particles, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), is forecast to ignite a geomagnetic storm on Earth over the weekend. NOAA predicts it will be minor, maybe moderate. NASA says it will be moderate to severe.

I ask: which intensity will it be and why aren’t these two science agencies on the same page?

The intensity of the inbound CME matters.

If NOAA’s right, and the ensuing geomagnetic storm is minor, it’s no big deal. It means the high latitudes could be treated to some brilliant auroras over the weekend with few, if any, negative effects on earth-orbiting satellites or the power grid.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bureaucracy; onesecondafter; solarflare
Chicken Little? Doom and gloom?
1 posted on 07/13/2012 3:32:51 PM PDT by dynachrome
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To: Kartographer

Related to your post yesterday. Doesn’t help that the gov’t agencies can’t agree on the severity of this solar flare.


2 posted on 07/13/2012 3:34:45 PM PDT by dynachrome ("Our forefathers didn't bury their guns. They buried those that tried to take them.")
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To: dynachrome

Solar Storm to hit on Bastille Day- July 14th....

March 13th 1989- Bastille Day...

March 13,1989; a powerful geomagnetic storm set off a major power blackout in Canada that left six million people without electricity for nine hours. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the flare disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Québec generating station and even melted some power transformers in New Jersey....Tthe entire province of Quebec, Canada suffered an electrical power blackout. Hundreds of blackouts occur in some part of North America every year. The Quebec Blackout was different, because this one was caused by a solar storm!

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated giant clouds of plasma in space, are the largest explosions in the solar system. It was like the energy of thousands of nuclear bombs exploding at the same time. The storm cloud rushed out from the sun, straight towards Earth, at a million miles an hour. The solar flare that accompanied the outburst immediately caused short-wave radio interference, including the jamming of radio signals from Radio Free Europe into Russia

The Quebec Blackout was by no means a local event. Some of the U.S. electrical utilities had their own cliffhanger problems to deal with. New York Power lost 150 megawatts the moment the Quebec power grid went down. The New England Power Pool lost 1,410 megawatts at about the same time. Service to 96 electrical utilities in New England was interrupted while other reserves of electrical power were brought online. Luckily, the U.S. had the power to spare at the time…but just barely. Across the United States from coast to coast, over 200 power grid problems erupted within minutes of the start of the March 13 storm.


3 posted on 07/13/2012 3:37:55 PM PDT by TaraP (On Christ the Solid rock I stand, all other ground is sinking sand.)
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To: dynachrome
It's fairly large, but I'm not suprised NOAA and NASA see it differently. NASA has to worry about sensitive satellites. NOAA has an atmosphere and oceans to worry about.

Different scales of concern with each agency.

I read that as "It's not going to strip off the atmosphere and oceans, but your 2 billion dollar satellite may be toast." ;)

/johnny

4 posted on 07/13/2012 3:39:42 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: dynachrome

If Algore and all of his envirocultists would just bend over and fart towards the sun...


5 posted on 07/13/2012 3:44:58 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Help reduce voter fraud in America! If you see something, say something!)
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To: JRandomFreeper

Nicely phrased ... I do believe you have nailed it.


6 posted on 07/13/2012 3:45:12 PM PDT by Hodar (A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.- Burroughs)
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To: JRandomFreeper

Discovery Channel-

NASA: Solar Storm 2012-2013 - pt 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8E7Wc_kGbc


7 posted on 07/13/2012 3:45:21 PM PDT by TaraP (On Christ the Solid rock I stand, all other ground is sinking sand.)
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To: dynachrome

http://iceagenow.info/2012/06/catastrophic-termination-ice-age-video/


8 posted on 07/13/2012 3:45:30 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: dynachrome
Chicken Little? Doom and gloom?

THIS IS SERIES!

9 posted on 07/13/2012 3:51:38 PM PDT by Gamecock (The Gospel is only good news when we understand the bad news. ¬óR.C. Sproul)
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To: dynachrome

Can I get a Faraday Cage at Home Depot?


10 posted on 07/13/2012 3:53:44 PM PDT by Argus
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To: dynachrome

An X10 or higher is good for possible light shows in mid-US latitudes. An X1.x, not so likely although possible. Depends on where the north magnetic pole is now (better for pictures, if it’s still way off).

It’s doubtful that this one will harm personal electronic items, unless they made an extreme error on the class of the flare.

For those of you watching to get pictures, try looking tomorrow night.


11 posted on 07/13/2012 3:58:46 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: Argus
No, but you can get the parts to build one.

Make sure to get the ground rods and connectors and wire. ;)

/johnny

12 posted on 07/13/2012 3:59:00 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: dynachrome

I guess there is no consensus and the science isn’t settled here.

I bet it’s still hot in the midwest.


13 posted on 07/13/2012 4:01:46 PM PDT by Tenacious 1 (The Click-&-Paste Media exists & works in Utopia, riding unicorns & sniffing pixy dust.)
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To: dynachrome
Is there any evidence that the reported the 2012 solar activity with many surface flares have been a cause of the unusually hot weather we have had in this hemisphere??
14 posted on 07/13/2012 4:02:23 PM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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To: Hodar
What I said is like saying: "plus or minus 1012"

Easy to nail it with a band like that. ;)

/johnny

15 posted on 07/13/2012 4:03:21 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: familyop

The graphs on the right show the model predictions for the time evolution of density and velocity at the locations of Earth and of the two STEREO spacecraft. The yellow vertical line is in sync with the movies on the left, so it is possible to see how values of density and velocity correspond to particular solar wind structures.

A “model run mode” for WSA-Enlil is indicated at the bottom: “Ambient” means that the model has been run in the quiet, “fair-weather”, mode while “CME” indicates a dynamic model run containing a prediction of one or multiple CMEs which may be directed towards Earth, or “Geo-effective”.

http://www.solarham.net/cmewatch2.htm

Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks “S1” on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned.

NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of strong polar geeomagnetic storms on July 14th when a CME is expected to crash into Earth’s magnetic field. More South Pole auroras could be in the offing.


16 posted on 07/13/2012 4:03:31 PM PDT by TaraP (On Christ the Solid rock I stand, all other ground is sinking sand.)
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To: Argus
Can I get a Faraday Cage at Home Depot?

It won't get here till tomorrow. You'll be wanting a Saturday or Sunday Cage for protection.

Yes I did

17 posted on 07/13/2012 4:07:33 PM PDT by Tenacious 1 (The Click-&-Paste Media exists & works in Utopia, riding unicorns & sniffing pixy dust.)
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To: Argus

They have hardware cloth and aluminum screen and lots of stuff for framing


18 posted on 07/13/2012 4:17:37 PM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: dynachrome

Yes, magnetic north has moved beyond the Canadian Arctic Territory. So it’s pretty far off normal. Geo-magnetic effects might come through to us a little more than usual (re. possibly slightly weakened protection due to magnetic pole shift).

Look for more than usual weather fluctuations, though—maybe much toward cold fluctuations in about 4-6 years. We’ll see. But no, I don’t see any huge, imminent disaster resulting from the latest CME. Some of the sponsored media alerts tend to exaggerate much in recent years.


19 posted on 07/13/2012 4:17:58 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: dynachrome

GeoHack - Magnetic North Pole 2012 est
https://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?pagename=North_Magnetic_Pole&params=85.9_N_147.0_W_&title=Magnetic+North+Pole+2012+est


20 posted on 07/13/2012 4:18:53 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: Gamecock
Chicken Little? Doom and gloom?

THIS IS SERIES!

Hugh!!!!

21 posted on 07/13/2012 4:23:45 PM PDT by Calusa (The pump don't work cause the vandals took the handles. Quoth Bob Dylan.)
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To: familyop

Well you might see some common factors from the CME that hit the Magnetic Field in March of 2011

X-FLARE: March 9th, 2011 ended with a powerful solar flare. Earth-orbiting satellites detected an X1.5-class explosion from behemoth sunspot 1166 around 2323 UT. A movie from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a bright flash of UV radiation plus some material being hurled away from the blast site.

3/11/11
2011 March 11 05:46:24 UTC -Magnitude 9.0 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

7/12/12

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th, 2012. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 09:17 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.


22 posted on 07/13/2012 4:39:32 PM PDT by TaraP (On Christ the Solid rock I stand, all other ground is sinking sand.)
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To: dynachrome

Chicken Little wins hands down


23 posted on 07/13/2012 4:46:39 PM PDT by Wuli
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To: TaraP

Thank you.


24 posted on 07/13/2012 4:50:09 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: familyop

The peak of the inbound CME should arrive at 2200 UTC or about 1400 PDT.


25 posted on 07/13/2012 5:40:06 PM PDT by Myrddin
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To: bert

The cage we had in the Army was made of COPPER screen.


26 posted on 07/13/2012 6:20:47 PM PDT by Tucker39 ( Psa 68:19Blessed be the Lord, who daily loadeth us with benefits; even the God of our salvation.KJV)
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To: dynachrome
Solar storm incoming: Federal agencies provide inconsistent, confusing information

If they would just scream "we're all going to die" I could relax.

But THIS is worrying.

27 posted on 07/13/2012 7:48:06 PM PDT by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
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To: Talisker

You may want to go to VIEWZONE.COM and look up the following articles which are rather interesting and in reference to CME’s

What does science say about 2012? 2012 Doomsday Dan Eden examines the truth and fiction behind the end of the Mayan calendar and discovers some frightening facts.

The last Doomsday — what was it like? An extinction event 14000 yrs ago was recorded in petroglyphs. What was it like? How did they survive it


28 posted on 07/13/2012 11:49:07 PM PDT by saintgermaine
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To: Talisker

You may want to go to VIEWZONE.COM and look up the following articles which are rather interesting and in reference to CME’s

What does science say about 2012? 2012 Doomsday Dan Eden examines the truth and fiction behind the end of the Mayan calendar and discovers some frightening facts.

The last Doomsday — what was it like? An extinction event 14000 yrs ago was recorded in petroglyphs. What was it like? How did they survive it


29 posted on 07/13/2012 11:49:33 PM PDT by saintgermaine
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