Posted on 07/13/2012 3:32:39 PM PDT by dynachrome
A wave of plasma stoked by an X-class solar flare, the most intense type, is headed towards Earth. This blast of charged particles, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), is forecast to ignite a geomagnetic storm on Earth over the weekend. NOAA predicts it will be minor, maybe moderate. NASA says it will be moderate to severe.
I ask: which intensity will it be and why aren’t these two science agencies on the same page?
The intensity of the inbound CME matters.
If NOAA’s right, and the ensuing geomagnetic storm is minor, it’s no big deal. It means the high latitudes could be treated to some brilliant auroras over the weekend with few, if any, negative effects on earth-orbiting satellites or the power grid.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Related to your post yesterday. Doesn’t help that the gov’t agencies can’t agree on the severity of this solar flare.
Solar Storm to hit on Bastille Day- July 14th....
March 13th 1989- Bastille Day...
March 13,1989; a powerful geomagnetic storm set off a major power blackout in Canada that left six million people without electricity for nine hours. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the flare disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Québec generating station and even melted some power transformers in New Jersey....Tthe entire province of Quebec, Canada suffered an electrical power blackout. Hundreds of blackouts occur in some part of North America every year. The Quebec Blackout was different, because this one was caused by a solar storm!
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated giant clouds of plasma in space, are the largest explosions in the solar system. It was like the energy of thousands of nuclear bombs exploding at the same time. The storm cloud rushed out from the sun, straight towards Earth, at a million miles an hour. The solar flare that accompanied the outburst immediately caused short-wave radio interference, including the jamming of radio signals from Radio Free Europe into Russia
The Quebec Blackout was by no means a local event. Some of the U.S. electrical utilities had their own cliffhanger problems to deal with. New York Power lost 150 megawatts the moment the Quebec power grid went down. The New England Power Pool lost 1,410 megawatts at about the same time. Service to 96 electrical utilities in New England was interrupted while other reserves of electrical power were brought online. Luckily, the U.S. had the power to spare at the time…but just barely. Across the United States from coast to coast, over 200 power grid problems erupted within minutes of the start of the March 13 storm.
Different scales of concern with each agency.
I read that as "It's not going to strip off the atmosphere and oceans, but your 2 billion dollar satellite may be toast." ;)
/johnny
If Algore and all of his envirocultists would just bend over and fart towards the sun...
Nicely phrased ... I do believe you have nailed it.
THIS IS SERIES!
Can I get a Faraday Cage at Home Depot?
An X10 or higher is good for possible light shows in mid-US latitudes. An X1.x, not so likely although possible. Depends on where the north magnetic pole is now (better for pictures, if it’s still way off).
It’s doubtful that this one will harm personal electronic items, unless they made an extreme error on the class of the flare.
For those of you watching to get pictures, try looking tomorrow night.
Make sure to get the ground rods and connectors and wire. ;)
/johnny
I guess there is no consensus and the science isn’t settled here.
I bet it’s still hot in the midwest.
Easy to nail it with a band like that. ;)
/johnny
The graphs on the right show the model predictions for the time evolution of density and velocity at the locations of Earth and of the two STEREO spacecraft. The yellow vertical line is in sync with the movies on the left, so it is possible to see how values of density and velocity correspond to particular solar wind structures.
A “model run mode” for WSA-Enlil is indicated at the bottom: “Ambient” means that the model has been run in the quiet, “fair-weather”, mode while “CME” indicates a dynamic model run containing a prediction of one or multiple CMEs which may be directed towards Earth, or “Geo-effective”.
http://www.solarham.net/cmewatch2.htm
Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks “S1” on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of strong polar geeomagnetic storms on July 14th when a CME is expected to crash into Earth’s magnetic field. More South Pole auroras could be in the offing.
It won't get here till tomorrow. You'll be wanting a Saturday or Sunday Cage for protection.
Yes I did
They have hardware cloth and aluminum screen and lots of stuff for framing
Yes, magnetic north has moved beyond the Canadian Arctic Territory. So it’s pretty far off normal. Geo-magnetic effects might come through to us a little more than usual (re. possibly slightly weakened protection due to magnetic pole shift).
Look for more than usual weather fluctuations, though—maybe much toward cold fluctuations in about 4-6 years. We’ll see. But no, I don’t see any huge, imminent disaster resulting from the latest CME. Some of the sponsored media alerts tend to exaggerate much in recent years.
GeoHack - Magnetic North Pole 2012 est
https://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?pagename=North_Magnetic_Pole¶ms=85.9_N_147.0_W_&title=Magnetic+North+Pole+2012+est
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