The 5 economic stats that will decide the election … are all pointing down for Obama

AEI ^ | 07/20/2012 | James Pethokoukis

[SeekAndFind]

Forget those head-to-head matchup polls between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Instead, look at the incumbent’s approval rating. No president has won reelection with an approval rating below 50% (In 2004, George W. Bush had a 48% approval rating among registered voters but was over 50% with likely voters.) And right now, according to the RealClearPolitics average, Obama stands at 46.9%.

So how can Obama boost that rating to 50%? A better economy would sure help. As Dan Clifton of Strategas Research puts it:

Our premise has been that the President’s approval rating will determine whether he is effectively making the sale to voters for a second term. And the variable most important to the President’s approval rating over the past year has been the unemployment rate. Based on the current trajectory, the President needs a 7.6 pct unemployment rate to reach that 50 pct benchmark. The trajectory of the economy is what matters and we reviewed just about every economic indicator possible and found only a couple of metrics that have correctly predicted presidential reelections. These indicators are listed below with the economic improvements needed for the President to reach a 50 pct approval rating. We will update these with each new data release.

The above chart shows what those indicators are and where they stand right now. And right now all five show Obama below where he needs to be to hit 50%. Job growth and income growth needs to be faster, consumer confidence higher.

And time is running out for a last-minute boom. In fact, the new Wall Street Journal survey of economists finds that forecasters see the third-quarter of 2012 as only slightly stronger than the past two.

[Signalman]

These numbers reinforce my belief that Obama will lose in a landslide.

[PMAS]

*

[Armaggedon]

America has been called upon to reject the Obama Nation of Desolation which has been set up in our holy place, the White House. We will not get another chance to reject this evil spawn of self centered human nature. Now or never for America. Let's make a stand together, friends.

[Migraine]

Those are relevant economic categories. They will each have an impact, as will they all in aggregate.

I’ve got a social, cultural, political, psychological and historical little tidbit that will blow the doors off brocko’s chances: NOBODY respects him.

A fairly sizable segment of the electorate find brocko USEFUL; but NO ONE respects him. I am more and more convinced of this. Think about it: even his supporters seem to hold him in some derision. Read a liberal blog or two (hold nose, swallow hard), and you’ll see what I mean.

[Cyclone59]

Goofball/conspiracy theory question.

What if after 0bama is no longer in office we find out that he was never qualified to hold the office, do all the sh!t things he did get reversed?

[Dr. Pritchett]

We’ll need a landslide to overcome the ‘rat cheating!!

[Principled]

r squared is not “correlation”.

r is correlation coefficient - how well the data fits a line.

r squared is coefficient of determination - how much of the variation in the dependent variable is due to the variation in the independent variable.

where’s toddsterpatriot?

[Justice4awe]

I agree with you. O will lose in the landslide, but every time I say that, people respond, “No way.”

[nascarnation]

I hope you’re correct.

Historically an economy like this is a death blow for a POTUS candidate.

But the Baraqqis have used it to up dependence on govt to a startling degree: 99ers, record EBT, bailouts, Obamaphones, etc.

I fear we are close to the tipping point.

We’ll find out in November. If Obama wins, we’ll have to do some hard work on FR deciding what the next move for patriots will be.

[newzjunkey]

These past comparisons are entirely irrelevant.

Obama will be graded on a curve because of the "historical nature" of his presidency.

If he was John F. Kerry he'd be road kill.

[arthurus]

All these things are nice but they do not take into account what will be the most massive vote fraud in American history.

[Migraine]

What if after 0bama is no longer in office we find out that he was never qualified to hold the office, do all the sh!t things he did get reversed?

Personal opinion on the matter -- piecemeal,through the courts, there may be some dismantling of his bovine scatology. But me, I'll just be so bloomin mad to see the effer gone, I probably won't even think about doing anything except getting back to the good old Constitution in all future governance.

[karnage]

No way.