North Korea: Moving Toward Chaos or Reform? (destabilization on the rise)

Last week’s abrupt dismissal of North Korean Army Chief of General Staff Ri Yong-ho from all party and military posts raises important questions about the direction of Kim Jong-un’s regime.

On the one hand, Kim’s ouster of Ri has sent a dramatic message to the nation – but particularly to the Korean People’s Army (KPA) -- about who is in charge. On the other hand, reports that Ri was ousted for resisting efforts to reduce the KPA’s role in the economy suggest possible divisions inside the leadership. Meanwhile, there are reports that North Korea’s 29-year-old leader hopes to take the totalitarian regime in a new direction, including by implementing Chinese-style agricultural and economic reforms. Such a move would have major implications for the North’s system.

Can this be what Kim Jong-un has in mind? This seems unlikely in a political and economic system that emphasizes rigid control and where genuine reform has been largely eschewed for fear of its implications for that control. But if Kim Jong-un is out to confound the skeptics and pursue change, he should keep another lesson of Deng Xiaoping’s China in mind. Deng, mindful of the Chinese military’s role in the economy and of the danger of breaking the People’s Liberation Army’s “rice bowl,” crafted creative ways to allow the military to run its own enterprises, make money, and become a major stakeholder in China’s economic reforms.

If Kim Jong-un indeed dismissed Ri Yong-ho because of KPA resistance to reforms, and if Kim is seeking to pursue economic reform at the expense of the North Korean military, then he may be taking on a dangerous and potentially destabilizing challenge by trimming the KPA’s role in the economy.

The current episode only highlights the squeeze NK regime is in. It does not have resource and time to carry out transition period in a smooth manner. Internationally, it is in a bind. Crucial economic aids are not flowing in steadily as they used to. Naturally, its economy suffers. The dilapidated infrastructure of N. Korea had made it more vulnerable to natural disasters. Drought or flood, which could be manageable in a normal country, can easily become a serious crisis. Its nuclear and missile projects are not going forward. It experienced major setbacks(rocket launch failures) or international pressure(nuclear test.) They are failing short of all goals they set out to achieve in 2012, the year zero of "Strong and Powerful Nation." The regime is in a zig-zag path. Belligerent hardline stance, marked by currency reform, rocket launch, attacks on a SK navy ship and its island, produced only failures. Now it appears to be on the different path. Because it ran out of options as it did in late 90's and gives limited breathing room for market economy. It has to do it to get past the current predicament which they hope is temporary. There is no way NK would give up on ICBM and nukes. It is only buying time, and bending a little to dodge a bullet. However, it seems to be interested in paring down the power of military, though.

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