Obama Keeps Lead as Voter Anxiety Rises (New Tonight- Distressing)

Wall Street Journal ^ | July 24, 2012, 6:45 p.m. ET | NEIL KING JR. And DANIEL LIPPMAN

[Positive]

American voters are growing more polarized and locked in their views as they witness a presidential campaign that is boosting negative feelings about both candidates, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Tuesday shows.

The poll also finds a resurgence of anxiety about the economy as job growth has slowed, though President Barack Obama maintains his edge on several fronts despite that. Half of registered voters feel less optimistic about the direction of the economy, with just 27% predicting the economy would improve over the next year—a sharp drop in optimism from recent months.

Still, coming in the wake of several weeks of intense TV campaign advertising, much of it negative, the poll of 1,000 registered voters found Mr. Obama leading his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, 49% to 43%, a gap mirrored precisely in four other Journal/NBC polls over the last year. The poll, conducted July 18-22, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

[GoCards]

Wow. 49%, thats terrible. I cant believe it. We are screwed. I hate stupid people :(

[ilgipper]

Completely out of line with other polls....and it says these numbers are consistent with their previous polls, so it does not indicate any sort of positive trend. Sounds like a registered voter poll that should be ignored. They are likely oversampling Dems by a good margin.

[nascarnation]

I’m always dubious about percentage polls.

I think we know Baraq will run up big margins in Cal, NY, and Illinois.

But you really have to look at the battleground states one by one.

[txrefugee]

Don’t despair. “Registered Voters” is a more liberal group than “Likely Voters.” That is why NBC will always construct its poll this way. I have no idea why the WSJ pairs with that Leftist group in its polling.

[Palmetto Patriot]

They are likely oversampling Dems by a good margin.

46% Dems + Ind, Lean Dem

35% Reps + Ind, Lean Rep

16% Strict Ind

Skewed +11% Dem.

[GoCards]

Is that seriously the sampling? Holy Cow, thats bad for even them.

[GoCards]

Is that seriously the sampling? Holy Cow, thats bad for even them.

[Positive]

Who are you referring to as "stupid" in this context? The pollees or me?

My distress is about the 6 points and the WSJ implied endorsement.

[GoCards]

Oh my certainly not you. Sorry!! Im talking about 49% of the stupid people :)

[Palmetto Patriot]

Here is the polling question:

QF4a Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")+

Strong Democrat ............................................... 24

Not very strong Democrat ................................. 11

Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11

Strictly Independent .......................................... 16

Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12

Not very strong Republican ............................... 7

Strong Republican ............................................. 16

Other (VOL) ....................................................... 2

Not sure ........................................................... 1

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

[God luvs America]

the other thing about this poll is they don’t break it down for R/D/I....i want to see what the percentages look like for the questions answered by Independents...

[mrsmith]

.

Frightened dependents: politicians love them.

[Positive]

Thanks, I'm aware of that. I'm distressed by the spread in light of other recent polls, but by no means dispairing.

(Recently immigrated from Kalifornia to Texas)

[Positive]

Thanks, I'm aware of that. I'm distressed by the spread in light of other recent polls, but by no means dispairing.

(Recently immigrated from Kalifornia to Texas)

[LS]

Check that-—this has (ready?) a +11 Dem advantage, more than even 2008. It appears that the worse Obama is really doing, the more the skew the polls.

[aposiopetic]

From Rasmussen at http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot:

Republicans lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the third week in a row, this time for the week ending Sunday, July 22.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.

In a FR thread yesterday I read that Rasmussen tracks self-identification closely in a sample of 3,500 likely voters and currently pegs self-identification as about 35% R, 35% D and 30% I, with the 'pubs in a slight lead.

WSJ is WAY oversampling Dims.

[paul544]

Let’s not tear apart the polling. The same shell game was going on in 2008 and people on here were somehow convincing themselves that McCain was actually leading. The polls are very likely correct.
Romney should be ahead by now. The economy has been crap for 3+ years and Obama is still in the high 40’s regardless of poll. So after all screw ups, bad economy, class warfare, Obamacare, etc... he is still, best case for us, tied.

What else do we think is going to change? This guy is like Clinton, no matter what he does or will do, he’ll win again.

[map]

The poll that you posted is flawed. See posts #5,6,11: registered voters, +11% democrats, 3% margin of error (x2=6%).

WSJ NBC is a good belly laugh. See Rasmussen for a serious poll.

[cherry]

many freepers rejoicing that bamey could be dictator again....

rejoicing...oh, they'll be all bitching for the next 4 yrs..everyday, everyhour and expect the rest of us to give a damn...

but anyone who puts bamey back in office, either by not voting, voting for some obscure candidate or by voting for bamey...the blame is on them 100%...