Skip to comments.Bogus NBC/WSJ Poll Oversamples Dems (This is nothing new!!!)
Posted on 07/25/2012 12:26:17 PM PDT by Kaslin
RUSH: Yes, I've heard about the NBC poll. In a couple of minutes. It's right here. I'm gonna get to it in just a second. All in due time. It's a three-hour program. Of course I've heard about it. It's a joke. They sample 11% more Democrats than Republicans, and even at that they can only get Obama a six-point lead. Yesterday we were talking, Reuters was the only poll with Obama up six. We were talking about what a joke it was.
My question is, what's the Wall Street Journal doing partnering with this bunch? Everybody knows that NBC's in the tank for Obama and so forth and the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, this is not doing the Wall Street Journal any good, credibility-wise. They had to have an 11-point spread in Democrats versus Republicans in their sample in order to get Obama a six-point lead. There's no way that that's gonna reflect the turnout. There aren't gonna be 11% more Democrats voting than Republicans in November.
RUSH: Grab audio sound bite number two -- yesterday, the day before, talked to you about Chris Cillizza's column, Washington Post, and also Thomas B. Edsall in the New York Times about the Obama strategery here where it comes to Romney voters. The first stage was write off the votes of white working-class Americans. The Obama campaign in November of last year announced: we know they're not gonna vote for us. We're not gonna campaign for their votes. And the next stage, which was announced this week: we're gonna try to suppress that vote, and we're gonna try to convince white working-class Americans that Romney hates 'em. Romney looks down his nose at them.
Now you've got Andrea Mitchell. You know, Andrea Mitchell's accusing Romney of speaking in dog whistle language. You know what that means? Well, dog whistle, humans can't hear it. But Romney is able to speak to certain human beings in dog whistle language, which means that some of Romney's voters are the equivalent of dogs, and they're the only ones that can hear what he's saying, and he's sending them racist coded messages.
For example, when he talks about Obama saying (impression), "You didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen." According to Andrea Mitchell, when Romney says that, that's "dog-whistle language." For the white, working-class Americans that's Romney sending out racist code. (interruption) "Tax cuts" was code. Yeah, Rangel said that tax cuts was racist, was code for racism. (interruption) How does Andrea Mitchell know the code?
Well, she's a journalist. They know these tricks. They know all the tricks we Republicans try. They know. Andrea Mitchell (NBC News, Washington) knows all the secret stuff. She knows the secret handshake. Yeah, she knows the secret blood-sharing ceremonies. She knows it all. That's what being an investigative journalist is all about. She and Brian Ross talk about this frequently! Dog whistle is lingo emanating from Romney as code. Anyway, here is Cillizza admitting all this.
He was on Starting Point on CNN this morning. He's got this new book, The Gospel According to the Fix, which is the name of his column. The host, Soledad O'Brien, said to Chris Cillizza, "Voters are disenchanted. [Voters] are unhappy." W -- w -- w -- w -- what? Have you not seen the NBC poll? Why, you ought to. You ought to see it. A majority of Americans think Obama is better than anybody to deal with the economy, better than anybody deal with foreign policy.
I mean, you would not believe this poll, as well you shouldn't. Soledad O'Brien obviously hadn't seen it when she said, "Voters are disenchanted, they're unhappy, and we see that in the polling. At the same time, Chris, negative ads are successful, and that's why they keep running." How much do they pay her for these unique, unavailable-anywhere-else, insightful questions? "[N]egative ads are successful, Chris, and that's why they keep running."
Here's what Cillizza said....
CILLIZZA: Negative ads do tend to depress turnout broadly. That said, in a presidential election where you have the Republican base increeeeeeedibly energized to vote against Barack Obama -- [and] you have the Democratic base slightly less energized but still energized to vote for Barack Obama -- I just don't see people not turning out. I think we're looking at an '04 electorate: Extremely close! The path to Barack Obama to victory in this election is disqualify Mitt Romney. Because Barack Obama's positive message only can go so far. Because we know from all the polling we've seen out there basically says, "A majority of people don't approve of how Barack Obama's handling the economy." If we're talking about the economy every day, i-i-it does not take a political genius to realize he probably comes up short.
RUSH: Uh, "Barack Obama's positive message only can go so far"? There isn't one, when you boil it all down. What's the positive message?
RUSH: The Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll has Romney up over Obama 47 to 44%, and yet here we have the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. They oversample Democrats by 11 percentage points. That gets Obama a six-point lead. But even with that (if I'm reading this right) in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama still can't get over 50%. They find Obama leading Romney 49-43. Six points.
And the sample is Democrat plus-11 at 46% of the sample. Republicans are 35%. We haven't seen 35% Republican turnout in a presidential race since the Watergate era! In this poll, they're sampling what they think the turnout's gonna be on Election Day: 46% of the turnout's gonna be Democrat; 35% Republican. In 2008, the electorate identified as Democrat plus-seven, and it's gonna be...? (scoffs) It's a joke. The poll is an absolute joke. And it's obvious they're putting it out so that they can use it to shape public opinion, because it clearly does not reflect it.
It's not even close.
RUSH: The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll oversampled Democrats by 11% over Republicans: 46% Democrat, 35% Republican of registered voters. Now, they do this... They claim that they try to poll the breakout that will be on Election Day to reflect turnout. Now, does anybody believe that Democrats are gonna turnout 11% more than Republicans in this election? And even doing that -- even doing that -- they can't get Obama to 50% in this poll. It's still 49-43 over Romney. The NBC poll also oversampled women by 4%.
Now, I've got the whole break down here. Really all you need to know is 46% of their sample was Democrat; 35% Republican. Again, it's a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, and it's meant to encourage Obama to continue with his negative ads against Romney. This is NBC trying to help Obama. This is NBC telling Obama, "Stick with what you're doing." Now, there's a story in the Weekly Standard that Obama is spending more than $2.5 million a month in polling.
What are they polling?
One theory is, when you rely on polling -- when you live and die on the basis of polling -- and those polls show you behind, you keep polling. You keep polling. Hopefully you get to a poll that shows you ahead. You don't want to see polls that show you behind. Then you start polling everything. What to wear for breakfast? What to wear on vacation? Where to go on vacation? What to put on the teleprompter? What to say here? What to say there? It becomes a -- I don't know -- self-fulfilling prophecy of doom.
It's what they're engaged in right now. So NBC is coming to the rescue, and what they're doing is a combination of things. They're trying to reflect public opinion. Remember Thomas B. Edsall and his story in the New York Times yesterday that the whole point of a portion of Obama's campaign is to suppress Romney voters. Depress, dispirit Romney voters in any way possible so as to make them think there's no point in voting. It's over. The country loves Obama. That's what this poll is.
This poll is supposed to dispirit you.
"Oh, my God, even with all this, Obama's still ahead? Ah, there's nothing we can do. The heck with it!" That's the reaction they want you to have. They want you to get depressed. They want you to give up. They want you to think it's hopeless. They want you to think there's nothing that can be done. Obama could wreak even more damage, and it wouldn't matter. The second aspect of this is to send a message to Obama to keep it up. They want Obama to keep up with his negative ads against Romney.
All the other polls say that those ads aren't working. This one says that they are. They want Obama to believe theirs. Remember it was just yesterday that we cited numerous polls all pointing out the fact that the attack ads against Bain are not working. Now, lo and behold, here comes one that is working like magic! The NBC poll says, "Half of registered voters feel less optimistic about the direction of the economy, which is a sharp drop in optimism from recent months."
Yet we are supposed to believe that Obama has surged ahead of Romney, when they even tell us "Half of registered voters feel less optimistic about the direction of the economy"? And yet more and more of them vote Obama? I'm telling you, it's a disconnect. It doesn't make any sense. The poll also claims the following. Quote: "Half say Obama has the background and set of values they identify with, while only 42% say that of Romney." Now, ladies and gentlemen, that's just ridiculous.
How many people come from a background like Obama's? "Half say Obama has the background and set of values they identify with"? Yeah? Where's the hardscrabble life? Where's the growin' up in the Midwest? Where's the numerous jobs as a boy with the hardscrabble life the parents had? There's no life story that Obama has that has much in common with anybody in this country. Obama had a communist, bigamist, absentee father from Kenya. How many people in America can lay claim to that?
He was raised in Indonesia and Hawaii.
He never set foot on the US mainland until he was in college and went to Howard Johnson's. He was a student of the radical left. His mentors were communists like Frank Marshall Davis and Saul Alinsky and Jeremiah Wright. What...? What kind of pap is this? They're trying to tell us that half say "Obama has the background and set of values they identify with"? You know what's happening here? It's like I told Snerdley yesterday: The people that voted for Obama for policy reasons will not vote for him again in 2012.
Do you realize how many people voted for this guy for reason have nothing to do with policy? Well, maybe remotely related to policy. People voted for Obama for the historical aspect. They voted for Obama because they wanted to be able to tell everybody how enlightened they are, how they're not racist and how cutting edge they are. They wanted to be able to say, "It's the end of racism in America! It's the end of strife!" Obama was gonna make the world love us.
He promised all these nebulous, unsubstantive things that didn't matter and never had a prayer of happening anyway. Well, the bloom's off that rose. All of those reasons are not gonna survive. You've been there, done that. There's no reason to vote for "history" twice. You already did that. So the only people who are gonna vote for Obama again are those who believe in his policies. And that's where it all comes down, folks. Have we reached the point where over half the country wants to sit around and take?
That's the question.
And I don't think we're anywhere near there.
Well, we may be close, but we're not that close that we've lost the country yet.
But there are just so many things in this poll that are unbelievable. "Half of registered voters feel less optimistic about the direction of the economy. That's a sharp drop in optimism from recent months," and yet they can't wait to reelect Obama. It's a disconnect. "Half say Obama has the background and set of values they identify with." That cannot be true. Nothing against Obama's background or set of values, here. It just can't be true. Most people do not have Obama's childhood.
Most people don't, not in any way. Most people don't have a brother living in a six-by-three-foot hut that they don't do anything for! Most people have not been raised by communist mentors. Most people have not gone to a church with a pastor like Reverend Wright. (interruption) Most, Snerdley. Most. But we are nevertheless being told that we are supposed to believe that people "identify with Obama's background and set of values" and that Romney's white-bread upbringing is the one that's bizarre.
We are being told that Romney is the freak!
Romney is the freak of nature. Romney is the one that's unnatural. Romney is the one that's an oddball weirdo. Romney and his background, that ain't what this country's all about! That's not what this country's about anymore. Obama claims he's running a grassroots campaign, so why all the polling anyway? I'm stunned by this. "Half say Obama has the background and set of values they identify with." Okay, so where are we? We have a bogus poll, structured bogusly, designed to dispirit and depress you -- while at the same time inspiring and encouraging Obama.
But there is an upside.
There is a bright side.
And it is this.
I'm perfectly fine with these yokels believing their own pap.
If the media wants to run around and think all this is true, let them. If they want to invest totally in this -- if this makes them feel better, if they want to go into this campaign thinking it's a lock and there's nothing Romney can do -- fine. I love people living illusions when it's my opposition. I love my enemies, my opponents deluding themselves. And that, potentially, is what is happening. NBC just tweeted, by the way, "NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates. Obama up six points!"
The daily tracking in Rasmussen, Romney is up three.
So that's that, folks.
It's a pretty transparent and pathetic attempt to go against the tide.
RUSH: You know, speaking of delusions, one more passage from the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll claims that Obama also leads by double digits on voters who think he would be the better commander-in-chief and protector of the middle class and who is knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency. Leads by double digits in voters who think that he would be the better commander-in-chief, protector of the middle class. It's laughable. Better be laughable. This is absurd. Obama, since he's been in the White House, we've had 41 straight months of unemployment above 8%. And we got a poll that tells us that he leads by double digits of people who think he's the right guy for the right time in virtually every aspect of the presidency, while he's out there saying, "We tried our plan, and it worked." Everybody in this thing is delusional, including Obama.
Here's Tom in Spring, Texas, as we start on the phones. Tom, thanks for the call. Great to have you here. Hi.
CALLER: Good morning, sir. It's an honor and a privilege to talk with you today.
RUSH: Appreciate that very much.
CALLER: I believe that these polls that come out day after day, week after week, Obama's ahead of Romney, Obama's likeability rating is up, Obama's job approval number's up, Obama this, Obama that, are gonna backfire come November 6. All these polls do is scare the heck out of millions and millions of people across this great country that we live in, and the poll that's gonna matter is gonna be on November 6th, 2012 when an energized electorate comes out in force to change the direction of this great country.
RUSH: So you believe that the reporting of these polls is simply going to fire up the anti-Obama vote, and it's gonna show up in droves?
CALLER: Yes, sir, I do.
RUSH: Well, that's not what they're counting on. You're probably right. What they're counting on is that polls like this are gonna depress people like you. What they want, when you look at the poll, they want you to go, "Ah, damn it, hell, nothing we can do. This is futile. This guy's ruining the country, and half the people or more think... ah, to hell with it. Mabel, let's pack up. Let's look at Singapore." That's what they're hoping you do. They're trying to suppress your vote. They're trying to dispirit you. They're trying to really dial back your enthusiasm with these polls, while at the same time trying to ratchet up Obama's encouragement. They're trying to enthuse him, keep doing what he's doing. Tom, I appreciate it.
Well, Rush, keep in mind that Andrea is a bitch...
What does that mean? That Romney is speaking in code to all the other nascent mass murderers in the TEA Party?
Good grief. Obama didn't say what he said, and Romney is saying what he didn't say.
This is our State-Owned Media.
They actually think they can turn reality on its head, make black into white, make up into down.
In 1980 Reagan was losing up till the Sunday before the election..
Question- why doesn’t somebody commission a poll that’s weighted like the 2010 congressional elections?
Congressional election years without a Presidential election on the ballot should compare with each other. Presidential election years should compare with each other. You can infer some things by looking two years back, but it doesn’t always translate the same. I think Gallup does the best job, and Rasmussen, at capturing the partisan makeup and adjusting against that in the same year. At some point in Fall Gallup begins to crystallize what it believes is going to be the LV model and you see an adjustment. I think Rasmussen makes that adjustment much more regularly. I could be wrong, it has been a few years since I really studied it.
I agree with Rush- the 2012 election will be a bloodbath, combining the 1984 Presidential election with the 1994 Congressional elections.