51% of Germans Believe Germany Better Off Outside Eurozone, 71% Favor Greece Leaving

Townhall.com ^ | July 31, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

[Kaslin]

A recent poll says 51 percent of Germans now believe Germany would be better off without the euro.

The Emnid poll for the Bild am Sonntag mass circulation weekly showed 51pc of Germans believed Europe's top economy would be better outside the 17-country eurozone. Twenty-nine percent said it would be worse off, AFP reports.

The survey also showed that 71pc of Germans wanted Greece to leave the euro if it did not live up to its austerity promises.

Economy Minister Philipp Roesler told Bild am Sonntag there were "considerable doubts whether Greece is living up to its reform promises."

Implications on Constitutional Court Ruling

That poll, with only 29% believeing the euro is a good thing, suggests that if the German constitutional court forced Merkel to put the euro to a referendum, that Germany would vote to leave the eurozone.

On September 12, the German constitution court is expected to rule on the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty chancellor Angela Merkel signed in March.

Is it any wonder ECB president Mario Draghi is loathe to do anything but talk before the court meets?

Should the court rule both are OK, eurocrats like Jean-Claude Juncker will immediately seek to change what the ESM can do, including the use of leverage.

Let Voters Decide

Given that Germany is better off outside the eurozone, and the eurozone is arguably better off without Germany, hopefully, the constitutional court will say it's time to put all of this to voters, including whether Germany should stay in the eurozone.

Unfortunately, I expect the court will OK both the ESM and the Merkozy treaty, but give further warnings to Merkel and the ECB that 500 million euros is the limit.

 

Eurozone Retail Sales Sink 9th Month; 17th Month of Contraction in Italy; Margins Collapse in France; Germany Barely Above Contraction

 

Eurozone retail sales continue to dive and not even Germany is immune. German manufacturing has been in contraction off-and-on, and retail sales are once again on the verge contraction as well.

Let's take a look at some reports.

Italy Retail Sales Slump Extends to 17th Month

Markit reports Downturn in retail sales continues in July

Summary:

July data pointed to a further reduction in activity in the Italian retail sector, with sales down markedly both on the month and compared with levels one year ago. The rates of decline in employment, purchasing activity and inventories all accelerated, while profitability continued to deteriorate sharply. Cost pressures, however, eased to the weakest in 20 months amid stronger competition between suppliers.

The downturn in Italy’s retail sector extended to a seventeenth month in July. Furthermore, the rate of contraction in like-for-like sales accelerated from the previous month and was marked. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Italian Retail PMI® posting 40.7, down from 41.7 in June.

Italian retailers generally fell short of their targets set for July.

Employment levels continued to fall during July, extending the ongoing sequence of contraction to 55 months. Moreover, after slowing to the weakest in eight months during the preceding survey period, the rate of job shedding accelerated and was
marked overall.

Sales Fall Sharply in France

Markit France PMI shows Record Drop in Retail Margins

French retailers encountered another tough month in July. Sales fell at a sharper rate on both a monthly and an annual basis, while margins were squeezed to the greatest extent in the survey history. The pace of job shedding accelerated [fastest rate in nearly three years], while retailers scaled back their purchasing of goods and lowered their inventories.

The headline Retail PMI® remained below the 50.0 no-change mark for a fourth successive month in July. At 46.7, down from 48.9 in June, the index signalled an acceleration in the monthly rate of decline in sales.

Gross margins in the French retail sector continued to decline in July. Moreover, the latest fall was the sharpest in the history of the survey. Panellists indicated that margins were squeezed by the need to engage in substantial discounting and promotional activity in the face of an increasingly competitive trading environment.

German Retail Sales on Verge of Contraction

Markit reports German Retail PMI hits three-month low during July

The recent rebound in German retail sales faded in July, with like-for-like sales rising only marginally since the previous month. At 50.3, down from 52.4 in June, the seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI signalled the slowest expansion in the current three-month period of growth.

German retailers indicated that their actual sales fell short of their initial plans in July, and by the greatest margin since January. Anecdotal evidence mainly cited weaker than anticipated underlying consumer demand. July data indicated that retailers are downbeat about their prospects for reaching sales targets in one month’s time. The degree of negative sentiment was the most marked since that recorded in December 2009.

Eurozone Retail Sales Sink 9th Month

Markit reports Eurozone retail sales fall for ninth month running in July

Key points:

Revenue downturn continues at faster rate
Near-record drop in gross margins
Wholesale price inflation strengthens



Eurozone retail sales fell on an annual basis for the fourteenth successive month in July. The rate of contraction was little-changed from June’s sharp pace, and much faster than the long-run average for the survey. Sales fell rapidly in Italy, extending the current sequence of decline to two-and-a-half years. France also posted a steep fall, the fifth in successive months. Sales were up compared with a year earlier in Germany, and at the fastest rate since March.



Retailers cut back on staffing in July. The current period of job shedding now stretches to four months, and the rate of reduction accelerated to a 32-month record. French and Italian retailers reduced their workforces on average, with the steeper decline posted among the latter. Italian retailers have shed staff every month since January 2008. In contrast, German retailers raised headcounts for the twenty-sixth successive month.

[Shadow44]

The EU doesn’t care what the people think, it’s an oligarchy for the elites to wield power and influence.

[CottShop]

52% of peopel don’t beleive in polls

[Army Air Corps]

Ping.

[truth_seeker]

German people know the system expects them to work to older age, so Greeks can retire at younger age.

Real simple, no need to bring in any other information.

German people say: “No, I don’t like that.”

And in Greece, elections prove the people don’t want to reform their economy; won’t make necessary sacrifices.

Again, German people say: “No, if Greeks won’t bring their budget into balance, to hell with them.”

[Kozak]

Why they won’t get a chance to vote on Euro membership.

[StAnDeliver]

"With Germany running a current account surplus, it was sending capital abroad, essentially lending foreigners the money to pay for German goods, like a mini China. This money flooded into the nations at the fringes of the eurozone who got German interest rates along with the single currency. And they knew how to spend it.

In Ireland, the boss of Dublin airport was awarded a salary double than that of the Chancellor of Germany. Government spending rose between 2000 and 2008 by 144 percent; welfare spending tripled. In Greece the public sector wage bill doubled. Pastry chefs and hairdressers were placed on a list of 600 professions deemed so “arduous and perilous” that they could retire at 50 on a state pension of 95 percent of their final year’s earnings.

So when you hear cries for the ECB to provide liquidity or for debt mutualisation, you are hearing cries for German workers to work till they’re 67 so Greek crimpers can retire at 50.

Sensibly you know that Angela Merkel will balk at turning her electorate into the galley slaves of Europe.

[StAnDeliver]

“The basic question is that a German has to increase working from 65 to 67 and that is to pay for Greeks retiring at 50. The 17th of June is the perfect opportunity to say either ‘we’ll behave’ or ‘we’ll carry on cheating,’ -- Nick Dewhurst, director at wealth management firm Integral Asset Management

[SaraJohnson]

Shut down globalism and send the ‘citizens of the world” back to menace their own Nations where they will be dealt with.

[allmendream]

Much as the first bailout the US did for a failing bank signaled to all the other banks that the sky was the limit and let the good times roll because it would all be OK once the taxpayer got the bill - so too will any Euro bailout of Greece signal to Spain and others that ‘Woo Hoo - party ON!’.

No need to stop the party prematurely if we can stick someone else (Germany) with the bill and make them clean up while we sleep off the hangover!

[cartan]

The problem is, German politicians do not care what German people say. All parties in the German parliament are committed to the EUSSR. They call it the “European dream.” They already see themselves as the Rulers of Europe, and have lost all loyalty to their own people. They are selling out their own country.

The only chance German voters have to stop this madness is to vote for a political party that used to be so insignificant (< 5%) that it is not currently represented in the parliament, but promises to stop this EUSSR project. There are not many choices. The most vocal of them is well-known, though: The Nazi party (NPD). I would not be surprised if they got a record result in the next election. Hopefully, a better alternative will step up until then.

[Moltke]

The most vocal of them is well-known, though: The Nazi party (NPD). I would not be surprised if they got a record result in the next election.

Highly unlikely! The most obvious choice would be the somewhat Tea Party-like 'Free Voters' (Freie Wähler) who have been around for decades with some notable success on the local and regional level.

[cartan]

Well, look at the successes that the Nazis have already had on the “local and regional” level. They have one thing going for them: Everybody knows them! Unlike other small parties.

I am somewhat planning to vote for Freie Wähler myself, but I don’t know if they are even available in federal elections. They are a very Bavarian party, and I don’t see them having much success among us Saupreiß…

[SeminoleCounty]

Shut down globalism and send the ‘citizens of the world” back to menace their own Nations where they will be dealt with.

---

That would be the best way to handle it

Unfortunately, too many who lament the EU problems continue to support all the failings of the EU and Globalism: Free Trade, NAFTA, NAU (EU for North America), banker bailouts, and the like. Even with the Euro crumbling, you have economic morons pushing for a one-North American currency (Amero)

[Moltke]

From Saupreiß to Saupreiß:

My initial draft response to your post was much longer and did in fact mention the limited NPD success on a regional level. But I ended up deleting most of it and just posted a brief comment.

And while the NPD (not Nazis, btw, as those are not allowed as you well know ;-)) might have 'name recognition', they have no appeal at all to the broader electorate. Other than collecting some votes from people who are thoroughly fed up with the status quo politicians.

The Freie Wähler do plan to go nationwide in the 2013 federal elections. And might prove to finally be an acceptable alternative to the ever-more-left CDU/CSU/FDP:

Something is Stirring in Germany

Only a rumor so far, but I have heard that Olaf Henkel might possibly be a figure-head. Which would be excellent news.

[cartan]

Yes, I had heard before that Henkel was going to support the Freie Wähler. He would have mass appeal, so there is some hope.

About the NPD, I wasn’t saying they would win the election, just possibly get a record result. I can see that they quickly noticed how many people are fed up with the Euro, and they are already out there on the streets, campaigning on it. I am sure they will convince an idiot or two.

I know some of those NPD people personally. Yes, they are Nazis. Real, Mein Kampf citing, Hitler worshipping, Holocaust denying Nazis. With huge Swastika flags and Hitler busts over the living room sofa. Absolute nutsos. They just have to deny it in public, for legal reasons.

[Moltke]

I did not mean to imply that you said the NPD would actually win an election. That would be ludicrous.

And I’ll take your word about those Nazis you know. I guess there will always be some who are disconnected from reality.

Oh well, I just hope that SPD/Khmer Verte (the Greens) don’t win the next election.

[cartan]

Yeah, me too. Vom Regen in die Traufe.