Another Day, Another Democrat-Heavy Poll Sample

nationalreview.com ^ | Aug 01 2012 | Jim Geraghty

[BarnacleCenturion]

If Obama surging to a better position among likely voters than among registered voters seems odd to you… it’s because it is. “As an empirical matter, Republicans do better among likely voters since the GOP draws from high turnout groups like seniors, while Democrats depend on constituencies with low turnout rates, like young voters and Latinos. With an impressive slate of historical polling data, Nate Silver found that shifting to likely voters causes a 1.5 point swing toward the GOP.”

And if your instinct is to wonder if the samples have unrealistic proportions of Democrats to Republicans, well… you’re probably right. John Podhoretz already picked out the numbers this morning: “Florida’s 2008 exit poll when Obama won by 5 percentage points: Dem +4. Quinnipiac/NYT Florida poll today — Dem +9… Ohio 2008 exit poll: Dem +8. Today’s Quinnipiac poll: Dem +8…. 2008 exit poll in Pennsylvania: Dem +7. Today Quinnipiac poll: Dem +6. If today’s Qunnipiac polls are right, there are more Obama voters in Florida today than in 2008, and the same number in Ohio and Pennsylvania as in ‘08. Choose to believe if you want.”

UPDATE: Jon in Washington points out another incongruity: In most polls Romney is tied nationally, but he’s losing the swing states worse than McCain did?

When Quinnipiac asked its swing state samples, “Did you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in 2008? Obama enjoys a 13 percentage point margin in Florida and a 15 percentage point margin in Ohio. Of course, in 2008, Obama won Florida by three percentage points and Ohio by 4.6 percentage points.

So these are some really heavily Democrat samples.

[jpl]

I say let these losers just keep lying to themselves with this nonsense. Their delusion will work out to our benefit.

[cotton1706]

On November 6th, there will be another heavy poll, this one with teeth!

[Palmetto Patriot]

Quinnipiac, CBS, NY Times poll was busted before breakfast.

[caveat emptor]

IMO these Dem heavy poll results may accurately reflect Dem heavy voting results as eventually reported.



See also Dem activist E. Holder's protection of voter fraud. GOP needs a big win to overcome these fraudulent activities.

[lacrew]

This same poll asked respondents about senate races.

FL Senate - Dem beat GOP by 7 points
Ohio Senate - Dem beats GOP by 12 points
PA Senate - Dem beats Gop by 18 points

The real story - the poll oversamples Democrats...and Barry UNDERPERFORMS, when compared to these Democrat senate candidates.

He’s actually BEHIND in this poll, relative to other Rats....7 points in PA, 6 points in Ohio, and 1 in Florida.

[ExSES]

Denial followed by manufactured Delusions..., I could conduct a poll of a "selected sample" resulting in ANY number! The more delusional..., the better (or is the ultimate intent RIOTS after the poll results?)