OPEC sees 2013 oil demand growth slowing

World oil demand growth will slow in 2013 from the already weak 2012, OPEC said on Wednesday, citing Europe's debt worries, a faltering U.S. economic recovery and deceleration of growth in emerging markets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces a third of global oil, said healthy output levels from non-OPEC producers next year would be enough to cover the modest growth in demand without the need for OPEC itself to increase output.

"Besides the euro zone crisis, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the contraction of manufacturing in the U.S. for the first time since 2010 and decelerating economic growth in emerging markets have been fuelling uncertainties regarding global economic growth," OPEC said in a monthly report.

OPEC left its 2012 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 0.9 million bpd and said growth in 2013 would slow to 0.82 million bpd.

"The fact that the departure of Greece from the euro zone, with a severe impact on the euro zone economy, still cannot be ruled out remains a cause of concern," it said.

"Such an action would provoke a massive capital outflow from the country and result in a default of its fiscal obligations, with a destabilizing effect on the euro zone and beyond."

The group's forecasts are close to those of the U.S. government, which on Tuesday cut its global oil demand growth estimate for 2013 by 360,000 bpd to 730,000 bpd.

OPEC forecast non-OPEC supply to increase by 0.7 million bpd in 2012 and 0.9 million in 2013.

OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004
...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.

US Imports of Crude oil
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Year	Quantity (thousands of barrels)	Value (thousands of US dollars)	Unit price (US dollars)	Average daily US$ per € exchange rate	Unit price (euros)
2001	3,471,066	74,292,894	21.40	0.8952	23.91
2002	3,418,021	77,283,329	22.61	0.9454	23.92
2003	3,673,596	99,094,675	26.97	1.1321	23.82

We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period.

As the dollar has fallen, the dollar price of crude oil has risen. But the euro price of crude oil remains essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period. It does not seem logical that this result is pure coincidence. It is more likely the result of purposeful design, namely, that OPEC is mindful of the dollar's decline and increases the dollar price of its crude oil by an amount that offsets the loss in purchasing power OPEC's members would otherwise incur. In short, OPEC is protecting its purchasing power as the dollar declines.

Demand for Saudi oil may be falling, and that is a matter of personal concern for them.

But demand for oil will still be satisfied with other sources, and a number of them stand to gain in relative standing against the Middle East sources. The Russians seem to be untroubled by the possibility of decreased demand, and they are almost certain to make up the decrease in per-unit payments by making it up on volume. And they will have plenty of buyers.

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