I believe the oversampling is supposedly an estimate of how many more Democrats will actually vote than Republicans.
That's correct. In 2008 Obama was +8 over McCain. In 2010, with the Tea Party energized Dem advantaged dropped to about +0. What will it be this year? I'm thinking it will look more like 2010 than 2008. If I'm right then Romney will win.
That is true. But in 2008 at the height of hopey changey mania there was only a Dem +7 advantage in turnout. Does anyone really think that Obama will do better than that in 2012, especially after “Hope and Change” has now turned into “Hyped and Deranged?”