ITs more than that, I don’t think Ryan is the big factor honestly, though I’m sure he’s helped Romney’s support on the right become a little firmer, and helped in the rust belt and Wisconsin especially..
What you have is a simple situation, The election is a referendum on Obama... and since Obama can’t run on his record, a record or DISMAL FAILURE, his only course of action is to attempt to paint his opponent as scarier than 4 more years of him.
The problem is, Romney, whether you like him or not, is a freaking boy scout when viewed within the spectrum of politicians, and so is Ryan. So, for Romney’s many faults, Obama cannot paint this guy as an extremist, and the same is true of Ryan. So they are going to just keep making more and more outrageous claims, because its all they have.
Now the problem is the more outrageous the claims, the more people will be disgusted and refuse to even consider Obama, and the lower Obama polls the worse and more vile the attacks will get and the lower he will go in the polls.
Obama NEVER had a prayer, his only chance was if the Republicans put up someone he could paint as a radical extremist scarier than himself, and frankly Romney cannot remotely be painted that way.
So Obama is out there screaming at the wind, no one other than his core is listening to him and the more he’s ignored the more vulgar and disgusting the attacks will become and the more vile they become the lower Obama will poll which will cause him to make even more vile accusations etc.
The “common wisdom” that this is going to be a close election is NONSENSE. If just 3.6% of the voting population changes their minds about Obama and don’t vote for him this time that did last time he loses. Do you REALLY think as abysmal as this guys term has been that less than 1 in 10 voters who supported him last election WON’T change their minds this election? Come on.. anyone claiming close election or that has claimed close election is either ABYSMAL at mathematics or is focused on the wrong numbers when doing their math.
Obama is utterly unelectable folks, he’s going to lose, lose big, we are talking losing by more than HOOVER lost in 1932 big folks.
And as an aside, on that, HOOVER won in 1928 58.2 to 40.8, then lost in 1932 57.4 to 39.7. Obama won in 2008 52.9 to 45.7. Hoover saw nearly a 10 point swing of the electorate in his 4 years presiding over the market crash, do you really honestly think Obama’s 4 years of disaster aren’t going to see a 3.6% swing minimal? Its just idiotic to promote such a thing. Now yes non farm unemployment was 23.6% in 1932, vs the 9% it is today (13-15% REAL UNEMPLOYMENT), but you also have to keep in mind farming was still what employed most folks in 1932, so that 23% not the same as 23% would be today, today itd be closer to the teens where where are with our real unemployment.
It is CRAZY and was CRAZY to think from the begining less than 3.6% of the electorate would not change from the most failed administration to another option, to think it would only be close to 3.6% and the race will be tight is equally silly.
To hit 40% of less on election day, all that needs to happen is about 6.6% of the overall electorate that voted for him last time has to vote for Romney and he’s at 40%. That represents a little more than 1 in 10 folks who voted for him last time changing their minds. This is well within the realm of possibility folks. However for him to simply lose, all it takes is about 6% of the folks who voted for him last time have to change their minds, thats just over 1 in 20 people that voted for him last time to change their minds... you really think 1 out of 20 people who voted for him last time aren’t regretting that decision 4 years later????
The very idea that he’s not going to lose 6% of his support from 08 to 12 given the state of things is just silliness. He’s not just going to lose, he’s going to lose big. Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t think for one minute this obama can get a second term.
>> ...frankly Romney cannot remotely be painted [as a radical extremist scarier than Obama]
I’ve seen certain RDS-afflicted FReepers give it one helluva persistent attempt though... LOL!
The problem is, Romney, whether you like him or not, is a freaking boy scout when viewed within the spectrum of politicians, and so is Ryan. So, for Romney’s many faults, Obama cannot paint this guy as an extremist,”
Obama spent a $100 million on horrible ads that accused Romney of being a vulture capitalist, felon, he called Romney a tax cheat and did the ‘he killed my wife’ ad.
So Obama’s out of ammo. He can keep doing that but its really more negative garbage that wont sell.
“Now the problem is the more outrageous the claims, the more people will be disgusted and refuse to even consider Obama”
I agree.