Posted on 08/22/2012 10:19:57 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
We can get pretty detail-oriented in our analysis of the polls here at FiveThirtyEight. But sometimes there is also value in applying a simpler approach.
One simple thing I've noticed is this: Mitt Romney has held the lead recently in quite a few swing state polls. That wasn't the case in June or July, when Barack Obama held leads in those polls far more often than Mr. Romney did.
Right now, our forecast model classifies the 10 most important states in the Electoral College as follows, and in the following order: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
If you simply count the scientific polls that have been conducted in those states since Aug. 1, Mr. Obama has led in 13 of them, Mr. Romney has led in 11, and there have been two exact ties.
This marks a contrast from June and July, when Mr. Obama held leads in polls of the top 10 states about four times as often as Mr. Romney did.
If you read the fine print on the polls, then things don’t look quite as good for Mr. Romney. In the polls where Mr. Obama has held a lead, it has generally been by a somewhat larger margin than when Mr. Romney does. And the polling firms that have been most active in the states recently have been a bit Republican-leaning on balance — and a few of the polls have been outright weird.
It’s also plausible that this is partially a statistical fluke, since we really haven’t gotten all that much data.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
I just received the NC poll dated 8-17 Pomney 56% Zero at38%. The polls are beginning already!
Go Pomney! Now, there’s a guy I can vote for! :)
RE: I just received the NC poll dated 8-17
From which polling outfit is this?
As an incumbent president, Obama is likely to lose all the states where he’s polling bellow 50%. That’s common knowledge, but don’t expect the MSM to mention it.
Oh NYT, you were doing so well until then. If you read the sampling in many polls, you will see that there is a major oversampling of Democrats. Also, many times the polls consist of "registered voters" instead of "likely voters".
Not to mention we are hearing MICHIGAN is up for grabs, with Romney possibly leading by a point?
What’s next...dogs and cats living together?
And, just for perspective, half of these polls grossly oversample Dems, so it’s doubtful Romney is trailing anywhere except PA.
LS, I contend we are watching a reprise of 2010.
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