Akin’s Support Craters in Missouri

Weekly Standard ^ | 8/26/12 | Fred Barnes

[rhema]

Support for Republican Todd Akin’s decision to stay in the Missouri Senate race has cratered and so has his favorability. Those findings come from two new polls conducted after Akin created a firestorm with his comment about “legitimate rape.”

Republicans, by a 47 percent to 37 percent margin, think he should drop out of the Senate contest against Democrat Claire McCaskill, and self-described Akin supporters believe the same by 50 percent to 34 percent, according to a Mason-Dixon survey. Only Democrats, sensing he’s likely to lose, want him to remain a candidate, 47 percent to 37 percent.

And in a poll for conservative groups, only 24 percent of Missouri voters looked favorably on Akin and 54 percent said they regard him unfavorably.

Before his rape comment two weeks ago, Akin had a solid lead over McCaskill. Republicans counted Missouri as a likely victory that would help them take control of the Senate. Now their chances look shaky.

While Romney did well in the poll for conservative organizations, leading President Obama in Missouri by 54 percent to 41 percent, Akin trailed McCaskill, 44 percent to 36 percent. A few weeks ago, he led by five percentage points. He was ahead by 11 percentage points among independents but now is 17 points behind. Independents, by 57 percent to 25 percent, want him to drop out.

Akin, however, has vowed to stay in the race. His freefall in the two polls will make that decision more difficult to defend.

[TonyInOhio]

He does not consider the GOP by and large to be his opposition. His beef is with a handful of GOPe "party bosses".

Am I wrong in that Akin enjoyed the backing of the Missouri GOP in running for the seat? He was the "GOPe"! How can you serve six terms in Congress and not be "Establishment"?

Akin got on very well with the GOP, right up until his self-inflicted wound.

[Uncle Chip]

Congressmums and Congressmums to be —

[tsowellfan]

If he stays and receives no GOP support and loses, a lot of the blame will fall on the GOP for not supporting him.

Not after his silly comment which makes him too toxic to be next to him. The "rape" comment came BEFORE the conservative and RINO republicans distanced themselves from the man.

What if Josh Mandel in Ohio, Ted Cruz in Texas, Rick Berg in North Dakota, Jeff Flake in Arizona, Deb Fischer in Nebraska, Richard Mourdock in Indiana, Denny Rehberg in Montana, Pete Hoekstra in Michigan, George Allen in Virginia, and others lose their races. Will we be to blame for those losses as well?

If they are conservatives and they lose it does not help our movement. If they lose the RINOs will try to blame them as well so that the next time they will have a reason to run one of their own.

Welcome to the real world.

[chae]

I’d bet that the majority of the money is coming from die-hard democrats.

[TonyInOhio]

Congressmums and Congressmums to be —

I'm not quick enough to get it. :) What are their names?

[Uncle Chip]

How can you serve six terms in Congress and not be "Establishment"?

By being too conservative and doing what's right for the people you represent rather than follow the party line all the time.

[doug from upland]

re: Others have been asked but have turned it down. They don’t want the hassle and fear of saying something wrong and to then be abandoned by those they fight for. And do you blame them???
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

I love inside info. Who has been asked and turned it down? If Akin dropped out, it is the Republican Central Committee who would choose a replacement. Please share with us what you know. Have you spoken with any of them? I have.

It is interesting that someone who would be asked to step in and have a shot at the Senate would turn it down because they don’t want the hassle and fear of saying something wrong and then be abandoned by those they fight for. I am impressed with your sources. I would have thought they someone stepping in would know they would get immediate and overwhelming financial support from conservatives, pro-lifers, and the party because of the desire to send McCasKILL packing. But then, I hardly know anything about politics.

[Ingtar]

As near as I can tell, he has about two weeks to see if it turns around. At that point, he can bow out, and watch one of the RINOs get put up in his place. The GOP-E will see to it that the 97.25 rated candidate will be replaced by a squishy one.

[tsowellfan]

Can you supply the link to confirm your statement that conservatives have been asked to replace Akins but they refused?

[Sola Veritas]

“until it was too late to easily replace him with an equally conservative candidate”

There was NO WAY for the VOTERS to replace Akin....the mechanisms in place would NOT really take them into consideration. The names bantered around to “replace” him were not as “conservative” as him....and he WAS elected by the largest vote.

NO, he did the right thing to stay in the race. Huckabee did the right thing to support him.

I’m going to get a big laugh IF he wins (after the GOP establishment failed to bring him down) but Romney loses the state (a pick of the GOP establishment). That would be really funny to me.

IF a person isn’t first a social conservative, then they are not at all a real conservative.

[muir_redwoods]

So once Akin has lost and is in no position to legislate and a pro-abortion democrat has the job, what do Akin’s position and views mean? Nothing! Allowing a conservative with similar positions to run in his place and possibly win makes the difference.

That’s been proved time and time again

[so_real]

I think you are wrong. The "e" in GOPe does not refer to longevity. The GOP remains largely a conservative organization. Unfortunately, a subset of the whole, having both wealth and influence, have gone limp-wristed on conservative values. And, clearly, Akin does not "get along" with this faction who have exploited his verbal miscue in an attempt to expunge him.

[Uncle Chip]

The three obvious replacements discussed on radio have been Wagner, Emerson, and Hartzler — all Congresswomen who have safe districts and easy wins ahead of them. Which of them would be foolish enough to risk a certain and easy election for a fight with a seasoned pro for which the outcome is uncertain??? Would you???

[muir_redwoods]

Right now the guy who is right shot himself in the foot and the side that is wrong is cruising to victory. With a simple withdrawal and replacement the seat could be held by another right guy.

[doug from upland]

Love the screen name. I also want to exterminate rats. I once hired an exterminator, who turned out to be a loon, said stupid things, and didn’t catch the rat. In fact, the rat laughed at him. So I replaced him with a real exterminator who actually did get rid of the rat.

[tsowellfan]

Basically, according to recent polls, Akin is handing us another 2 years of a Harry Reid Senate, a permanent ObamaCare here to stay and at the very least free reign of a RINO President, at worst another 4 years of Obama and Infanticide.

All avoidable and without having to compromise our principals as we could have replaced him with another conservative.

[Tex-Con-Man]

Am I wrong in that Akin enjoyed the backing of the Missouri GOP in running for the seat? He was the "GOPe"! How can you serve six terms in Congress and not be "Establishment"?

Welcome to "The Legend of Todd Akin, Conservative Martyr". It's a revisionist history being rewritten as we speak. I can't wait to find out how it begins.

[TonyInOhio]

....and he WAS elected by the largest vote.

That is true - McCaskill's money did help him win a slim plurality in a three-way race, which means that three fifths of Missouri Republicans voted for another GOP candidate. Why not give them a chance to vote for someone else again, someone who can actually beat McCaskill?

[Uncle Chip]

I love inside info.

I'll bet you do -- doesn't everybody.

[so_real]

Nothing! Allowing a conservative with similar positions to run in his place and possibly win makes the difference.

In your sentence, "possibly" is the operative word. Should the "possibly"-win candidate lose, the "Nothing!" remains. With only two months before the election, both other primary contenders ineligible for the race, local grass roots leaders coalescing around Akin, and Akin himself reaffirming his plan to remain on the ballot, the probability of any write-in or third-party victory is miniscule. So miniscule, in fact, that stepping aside amounts to a guaranteed loss, while remaining in position and moving the message back to the real issues at stake is a potential win. If the GOPe truly care about the seat, they will come back around to support the only possible Republican victor. If they don't, they'll make good on their promise and throw the seat to a progressive liberal democrat for six years. And, that is their right, but the true colors it shows will not be lost on us.