Posted on 08/29/2012 10:01:01 AM PDT by Perdogg
Via Suitably Flip and RCP, the latest poll from James Carville’s Democracy Corps should have the sirens wailing over at Team Obama. The topline numbers show Barack Obama with a two-point lead over Mitt Romney, 49/47, down from a 4-point lead in July. The new sample is D+6 at 38/32/28, only a slight change from July’s D+5 at 38/33/25, a margin-of-error change from one poll to the next (which is true of the topline change, from 50/46, as well).
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
That’s what I’m taking about.
BTW, PPP nailed the Scott Brown election in 2010 head on in their prediction. Even though they trend left, they are one of the more accurate polling firms.
I would like to see an across the board comparison of all major pollsters for the last poll of the 08 presidential election and for the 2010 senate races.
True.
Like I’ve said many times a polling outfit is but one data point. That’s why when some folks go Tourette’s when Rasmussen gets questions, it shows that they don’t understand (or want to accept) that he, like everyone else, is a data point, not the whole data set.
Ha !! If you think that’s amazing got the RCP’s average. Suddenly there are a surge of polls out taken just before the convention that show Romney surging. Why do you think that is ?
I say according to the polls the week before the Republican convention is probably historically the best week for Republicans in history and it’s consistent from race to race. Why do you think that is ?
RCP shows Romney +2 in this poll, +1 and actually leading in the ABC/Wash Post poll, +5 in the CNN poll, +5 in the FOX poll, pretty much all the recent non-tracking polls that have something to compare them to show a bounce. Some do it by messing with internals, others pick this poll as their first Likely Voters poll but they all want to make Romney look stronger just before the convention so that they can deaden the bounce that they may register during the convention. Just my opinion.
It's because most polling is turning up a population that identifies itself as more Democrat than Republican than in previous years. Even the FOX poll showed this recently, and their polling firm discussed it specifically (one of the few who took the time to do so). I think the demographic shifts have something to do with it. Also, many polls simply show less independents - and the way the race seems frozen at around 47/47 seems to demonstrate this. That's the theory anyway.
I just heard Paul Ryan.
He nailed it and brought the house down, going after Obama’s failures on Obamacare and on a number of issues.
Just heard Brooks call it a ‘prosecutorial indictment’.
“Spent force” ... nailed Obama on stealing from Medicare to fund Obamacare, and reminded the promise to repeal it,
That line about kids still in their parents home staring at their old Obama poster was ... sublime.
You may be right that some of the convention went soft on Obama or at least havent all gone fullbore, but not really now ... Obama’s mincemeat if America listens to Ryan.
The thing about PPP is that sometimes they may lie for a partisan reason since they are an official democrat firm. When they want to be accurate, they are.
“You have a media who has written stories about we’re in a recovery, and have covered for zerO’s HORRIBLE economic record, “
So are the 25 million long-term unemployed / underemplyoed / gave-up-on-work-entirely to believe the media or their own lyin’ eyes?
Unemployment this election day will be over 8%, higher than when Obama took office. If THAT was a crisis ... what is today? The media cant paper over the lousy economy.
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