Posted on 08/29/2012 10:01:01 AM PDT by Perdogg
Via Suitably Flip and RCP, the latest poll from James Carville’s Democracy Corps should have the sirens wailing over at Team Obama. The topline numbers show Barack Obama with a two-point lead over Mitt Romney, 49/47, down from a 4-point lead in July. The new sample is D+6 at 38/32/28, only a slight change from July’s D+5 at 38/33/25, a margin-of-error change from one poll to the next (which is true of the topline change, from 50/46, as well).
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
ping
I don’t know what pollsters are doing to their numbers, but there is no way this race is remotely tight.
Obama down 15 among independents but he’s up 2 overall in this poll? Makes no sense.
Polls = Keep asking until you get the answer you want
I don’t know what to believe anymore.
Also, Rush just said there is an ABC poll that shows the majority of people still blame Bush for the bad economy.
Bush = Republicans
23-point shift in independents and a 10 point drop in the women vote.
James Carville’s Democracy Corps.
This is why CNN is attempting to balance their coverage now...they smell a loser.
Yea whatever. This is a close race, period. And the fact the RNC will not go after Obama during this convention is going to keep it close.
Do you support the first African American President of the United States for reelection or that rich white Mormon elitist, Romney?
(/sarc for those lefty lurkers.)
I guess that depends on the poll.
Pulse Opinion Research
Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.
It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.
Sorry but the math doesn’t add up.
Roughly 40% of the electorate is INDEPENDENT, you can’t be in a close race if you are LOSING the independent vote by 15 points, its NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE folks.
Easy: D+6. Looks like a Romney lead to me.
But they oversample Dems, not indies.
“...and a RNC convention who thinks it’s best to talk in general speak about “Love” and “Respect” rather than putting this bastard on blast over his bad ideas and record.”
I don’t know what convention you’ve been watching but pretty much every speaker has been putting in their digs at Obama. Heck, last night’s theme was “We Did Build It” and before every small business owner’s speech you heard the FULL quote by Obama while on screen the name and credentials of the business owner were shown.
Now that Romney is the official nominee he has a boatload of cash that he can tap - and continue raising - instead of the primary restrictions. Romney/Ryan will come out with both guns a’blazing with mega rallies, TV/internet ads and fundraising.
Expect Ryan’s speech to be a little fire and brimstone and Romney making some very direct charges in his acceptance speech.
“Sorry but the math doesn’t add up.”
It doesn’t for me either.
FWIW, in addition to HamiltonJay’s predictions and my predictions, forner NH Gov. John Sununu, Sr. was on the Howie Carr Show Monday and he was as confident as a rooster in a henhouse that R2 would get over 300 EV’s. Maybe I need to stop huffing glue, but barring some truly WACKY event, R2 has this thing wrapped up.
And it won’t be close.
Like I’ve said here ~100 times, the popular vote % will look like 1988 and the EV count will look like 1992.
You are correct. Our side is motivated, independents are with us significantly, Dem motivation is down, and he is tied or ahead a little. BS. Not to mention Dem registrations are down and ours are up a little. The math doesn't add up. As someone said last week in a similar discussion, it is in the sampling. They are scoring a higher turnout by Dems than GOP, and assuming Dems are voting lockstep for Obama. Neither is the case.
“the RNC will not go after Obama during this convention”
That is pull bullcrap. I listened to the convention last night and they went after 0bama.
New poll in IOWA showing Obama losing a 10 point lead. It is now (supposedly) 2 from Dem PPP. Oversample of Dems certainly in place.
It’s MY OPINION that they need to be more tough on his record..be specific about the numbers.
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