Posted on 09/02/2012 1:10:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In 2006 and 2008, Democrats rode a wave of voter dissatisfaction to two electoral victories --- and to large leads in party affiliation. By 2010, Republicans had the momentum of voter dissatisfaction, but not the realignment seen in the previous two cycles. According to a new survey by Rasmussen Reports, the realignment seems to have arrived in 2012:
After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.
During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.
The number of Democrats slipped to 33.3% in August from 34.0% in June and July. Those two months marked the Democrats’ best showing in 2012. In February, just 32.4% described themselves as Democrats, the lowest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.
The number of voters not affiliated with either major political party fell to 29.2% last month. That’s down two points from 31.1% in July and the smallest number of unaffiliated voters since 2009.
Rasmussen is one of only two significant pollsters that track partisan affiliation on a regular basis. Gallup also surveys on this question, and we’ll get to their measure in a moment. This metric has significant bearing on poll analysis, as Hot Air readers know, but it’s not the end-all for that, either. Pollsters have to model the likely-voter turnout, and while party affiliation measures in the general population inform that modeling process, the models aren’t a copy of these surveys, either. This series, unlike most of Rasmussen’s surveys, poll general-population adults rather than likely voters.
Galllup’s series has not reflected the same trend Rasmussen sees, though. In fact, there’s been a slight decline for the GOP in that series since spring among affiliated voters, although that evens out when leaners are added:
This then becomes a matter of which pollster would be more reliable on this measure. Bear in mind that Rasmussen’s tracking on this question did a pretty good job of showing at least the direction of the turnout in 2010′s midterm elections, which nationally had a D/R/I of 35/35/30 in the tracking polls. In this graphic, the columns are R/D/I:
Gallup missed the surge in that election, however, and had the GOP’s affiliation numbers tracking the other direction (columns are R/I/D, then R+leaners/D+leaners):
By the week of the election, the D/R/I of Gallup was 31/26/41, while Rasmussen had it almost precisely accurate at 35/36/29. That’s something to keep in mind, and it’s been my experience with Rasmussen polling that it tends to identify trends earlier than almost any other pollster.
In this case, it shouldn’t be a big surprise to see voters shifting more Republican after three-plus years of a flatline recovery, with job creation stalled, and Democrats refusing to talk about either or talk about their own plans to fix either, for that matter.
Don't mean a thing. Obuma's got it sewed up, according to the Washington Post. Almost all the "models" have Obuma walking into another four years of multiculturalized glory.
Republicans can Affiliate till the cows come home.
>> Obuma’s got it sewed up,
It’s imperative that every Conservative realize that Obama is more hazardous to Life and Liberty.
If not to vote for Romney, then vote for a Republican White House.
This is what the media wants you to believe. This same tactic worked in 2008, so many Republicans stayed home because they thought it was a waste of time, this is the most important election of our lifetime, if Obama wins re-elections America officially becomes the Communist country we all dreaded
It may appear to be sewed up but the fabric is swiss cheese. They have been cooking the polls.
Seems to me that when Reagan won it was a big surprise to the Dems, their polls did not show his popularity at all.
“Almost all the “models”..”
Sure.
This race is Romney’s to lose, and my impression is that he is way too politically savvy to make major missteps. As much as the moronic media tries to prop up the idiot in chief, he’s still and idiot, and many, many people get it.
=’still an idiot’.
Many Democrats have run to the other environmentalist, feminist/homosexualist/anti-family, socialist, animal-worshiping, political/regulator party. But we already know that. On through default to small government. No more debt/revenues for politicos.
Absolutely, they want the conservatives to stay home. If the people turn out, I think O is probably toast.
Do not believe a thing that the WP says, it is living in DENIAL and DENIAL WP is NOT a RIVER in EGYPT.
Yep and more people are waking to this reality that WE HAVE AN IDIOT IN CHIEF.
.....And as proof, take a look at all the Romney/Ryan rallies, they sure resemble rock concerts.
This is peculiar. Then why are the polls so tight?
If you really think Obama has this thing sewn up you’re delusional. Bill Moyers certainly doesn’t think so, and I suspect this program was his warning to all like minded lefties:
http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-the-resurrection-of-ralph-reed/
Ralph Reed and others have been doing a TON of behind the scenes work the media doesn’t want you to know about. You think 2010 was just about the Tea Party? Or this past summer’s Walker recall? Nope it’s because we have grass roots leaders that are mobilizing conservatives like never before.
It’s going to be a wipeout.
Yancy
I think it’s a close race. OR maybe the polls are using old affiliation models when doing their Dem vs Rep sampling in polls. Usually they sample Dems around 3% to 7% more than Republicans.
Paging Axelrod..
"I ain't in it!"
I guess it's nice but I'm not affiliated with that Party. I'm a conservative - through and through.
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