Democrats Like Their Chances of Holding the Senate

Roll Call ^ | September 4, 2012 | Kyle Trygstad

[Georgia Girl 2]

They are really hitting the Kool Aid hard. LOL!!!

[GOPsterinMA]

HI: Linda Lingle.

[jmaroneps37]

Yeah and I’m sure they like ice cream, but what does this report have to do with reality. I know the never argue Nebraska but EVEN Akin is not back to having a chance and could win. These silly stories always try to make North Dakota “competitive” or a “Democrat hold.” Does anyone believe ND will vote like 70/30 for Romney and 51/49 for a Democrat? There are others but they’re on a sinking ship and they know it.

[Impy]

I don’t like their chances. They can do it now thanks to MO, 51-49 (or 50/50 with Biden God forbid) but it would what they call “filling an inside straight”. They did it in 2000 and 2006, this cycle can’t be so cruel 3 times in a row.

Bottom line is close or not, Berg and Rehberg will both win, period. Thompson will win. Fischer of course will win. Heller will hold Nevada, but we’ll lose Maine.

That’s 4 gains to 1 loss. That’s 50-50. They need to beat Brown to get 51. They can, it’s MA. I don’t think they will.

VA, OH, FL are all 50/50 at worst pickup chances. So just 1 would likely give us 51.

In MI 2 recent polls have showed a narrow lead for HOEKSTRA over STABMENOW. 2 other polls have her in the lead. Average them all and she is up by only 3.

CT is close in all post primary polls. Tossup in CT, I wouldn’t have thought so but there you go.

MO, it’s not over. There have not been a lot of polls since RAPEGATE but here they are: Right after but before the media storm Akin still lead by 1 in a PPP poll. McCrapskull lead by 10 in the post scandal Rasmussen, 9 in a Mason Dixon poll
A pro-Akin poll from a firm I never heard of showed him up 3. PPP from last week has Akin down only 1.

Based on this I’d say McCrapskull is up only slightly and Akin can still win as people move on.

So out of the 7 closest races (6 rat held) we need 3 for 51.

New Mexico doesn’t look good but you can’t write that off.

1 more race we could win, Hawaii though it’s hard to gage just how good Lingle’s chances are in a state Osama will win 2-1.

Other races I think we can write off (PA forget it) except NJ, Menendez is weak but favored.

[Impy]

No need to pretend Sanders is an independent, King either though if we have it he might seek to sit with the Republicans to increase his own power.

[Impy]

I forgot to mention Indiana. Not happy with the polling there.

It’s just as hard for me to picture Donnelly winning as Heidi though, what do you think?

[LS]

Sooo, excluding MD which is totally gone, and FL, which is not looking good, we can possibly look at pickups in OH, VA, MO, ND, NE, WI, plus a hold by MA and NV for 55 without CT or MI, with possible outside chances for HI, FL, and NM.

So, am I right that if all these races go our way, we're at 60?????

[Clintonfatigued]

Joe Donnelly has a shot, a pro-life Irish Catholic from South Bend who survived in 2010, albeit it very narrowly. Richard Mourdock has gotten bad press and some Lugar supporters are crossing over. I still rate Mourdock as a slight favorite.

[Impy]

MD? I think you mean Maine. FL looks fine but Mack looks like he’ll run slightly behind Romney.

If we add NE, WI, ND, MT, OH, VA, FL, MI, MO, CT, NJ, HI, NM, which is literally every seat we have a chance at that’s still just 59 if we subtract Maine. If we got that many however Angus King would probably caucus with the GOP since the democrats would be hard pressed to take control again anytime soon.

I’d be thrilled with 55 which would tie our post depression high. We could shoot for 60 in 2014 if we got around that. 2014 is filled with vulnerable and potentially vulnerable rats and almost every GOP seat looks safe. So even an a less than popular Prez Romney would not likely prevent a net gain.