Posted on 09/06/2012 1:32:44 PM PDT by Arthurio
Poll: Romney up 3 in Ohio, best showing since June
By Justin Sink - 09/05/12 08:25 PM ET
Mitt Romney has opened a 3-point lead in the pivotal swing state of Ohio, according to a new poll released Wednesday — the Republican nominee's best showing since June.
The Republican ticket garnered support of 47 percent of those surveyed, versus 43 percent for Democrats, according to a poll released by Gravis Marketing. President Obama has led consistently in the polls since June, although that lead has been usually within the margin of error.
Meanwhile, 10 percent of voters remain unsure in the pivotal contest, or say they would back a third-party candidate.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Undecided means they are sick of Obama but haven’t settled on Romney yet. They will either break for Romney, or stay home.
Isn’t 47-43 = 4?
If it’s a solid 3 point lead that’s a pretty good lead at this point. By “solid” I mean that those who say they’re going to vote for each candidate aren’t going to change their minds. The rule of thumb is undecideds break for the challenger.
The history of past elections and polls suggest that undecided tend to break against the incumbent by 2 to 1 or even 3 to 1 in some elections.
Historically, elections with an incumbent are largely a referendum on that person. So, undecideds tend to go strongly against the incumbent on election day.
Shouldn’t it be a 4 point lead? My math skills are not the best in the world but 47-43 isn’t that 4..either way glad that Romney is leading I feel that his lead is even stronger than that
I wonder if Boehner has any clout that he can lend to Romney. Does the Speaker have coattails?
Noticed the same...somebody needs to re-take kiddie math.
Thanks for the post. Good news.
Math Grade: - Incomplete
So why are some reporting that Romney is pulling ads in Ohio? Shouldn’t Romney be pouring it on?
Republican Governor,John Kasich has the best coattails for Romney/Ryan.
Not to worry. The Romney Campaign and his Super Pacs know what they’re doing.
You don’t run ads during the Democrat Convention, that is wasted money.
Agree. Obama is the status quo candidate. Want more of this? Vote for him. Undecided breaks mostly for challenger.
Huge money burn by Obama with negative ads.
It’s the economy, stupid! Just need to keep hammering that.
synergy joke :)
Could be a rounding thing, it could be 46.5 to 43.4. In which case it’s 47-43 when rounded but the actual lead is just 3.1%.
Boehner represents one district in Ohio, even though he’s Speaker.
That said, I haven’t seen any polling on Boehner’s standing in the state. Doubt they would poll on that specific question.
Ohio has several Republican office holders statewide, and you can bet they are helping Romney/Ryan in every possible way. Kasich is Governor and Portman is one of the two Senators.
Have also read that State Treasurer Josh Mandel (ex-Marine) who’s running for the other Senate seat is very popular and may be helping draw people out to vote for him who will also vote Romney/Ryan.
Ryan was picked, in part, with Ohio in mind as well as Wisconsin. Everywhere in Ohio Ryan goes he mentions that he attended Miami of Ohio University and got his degree there. LOL
Their strategy is aimed strongly at the Upper Midwest, of which both Wisconsin and Ohio are part.
Makes sense to me that you wouldn't directly compete with the press orgy that is the convention but mine it for goodies and have the last word. There have been a lot of goodies.
I just read today that NBC is reporting $4.5 million in Romney ad buys, including $1 million in Ohio.
He may have stopped for the convention week; but, it his ads will be back up next week, in droves.
I’m getting the vibe that Obama is toast.
I know the MSM will never offer up anything confirming it, but the thrill is gone.
When the Baraqqis start putting out feelers for purchasing POTUS pardons, we’ll know the game is over.....
The best news of this poll is the fact that O seems hopelessly stuck at 43%. There seem to be a bunch of polls showing the same range all over from what I can tell.
When the other party’s convention is on and is giving you more ammunition that you could have dreamed of, with sixty days till the election, why try to interrupt them? Wait to see how the internals poll out through this weekend and them hit them hard where it will be most effective. The way Obama is spending his (in the red) campaign funds he may be left standing with no paid air time and his thumb up his a** by mid-October.
After barry speaks tonight you will see the same thing in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Connecticut, & Maine.
Romney doesn’t have to run any Ads this week, the DNC’s entire Convention is one huge GOP Ad. All Romney has to do is sit back, eat some popcorn, and watch the implosion. Next week he can make Ads of DNC delegates BOOING God and BOOING Israel, show those in all of the swing states, oh and also the one with the delegate caught on tape wanting Romney dead, that should be a good one too
ADP is reporting job gains of 200,000 in August, a pretty big number. The official Labor report comes out tomorrow. Get ready for an extended celebration by the communists / media. The recovery “on the right track” narrative will be put front and center 24/7. Romney needs to be prepared for this.
Kasich will be an asset to Romney in Ohio, as will Ryan, who went to college here.
Sounds right - they know who Obama is - he's been around for four years. Now they want to know who Romney is...
Especially since he hasn’t spent much money in Ohio yet according to another article I read today.
It’s 47-44.
“Obama’s previous lead over Romney of 45.3% to 44.4% has switched to a Romney lead of 46.8% to 43.7%. Although within the previous polls margin of error, the Republican convention appears to have given Romney a 2 point bump while taking 1 point from Obama. Switching to the Senate race, before the Republican convention, Democrat Sherrod Brown held a nar- row 43.6% to 41.4% lead over Republican Josh Mandel. Again, although within the margin of error, the post- convention poll gives Republican Mandel the advantage at 44.3% to 43.5%, representing a 3 point bump for Mandel, while Brown’s take staying basically constant.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_OH_0904.pdf
Financially the MSM has to make it look close or else no one would pay attention and watch them if they actually told the truth...
ADP is usually high and economy needs to produce 350K jobs to keep pace with population growth, so even this 200K is pathetic.
Boehner’s district is already conservative.
Your survey link does show a 3 point advantage to Romney.
R = 46.8
O = 43.7
Tourist season just got over. It's time for seasonal people to get laid off.
I don't see where those numbers would come from. Even manufacturing and shipping are down. Maybe they plan on "revising" the number after the convention so Oboma can use it in a speech? (No one will hear about the revisions later. They never make a big deal out of those.)
What's more important is how many LOST their jobs and are signing up for unemployment for the first time. Those are the people who are hurting. That's the number that really counts. It's always much, much bigger.
I agree that Ryan’s Miami University (Oxford) connections are a real selling point.
Miami U has tendrils in all of southwest Ohio counties in one way or another, and they are sitting right next door to Indiana, so there’s probably spillover there, too.
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- Where is Obama’s “billion dollars” in campaign fundraising?
- Even with the five billion ($5,000,000,000) bucks worth of free advertising and propaganda from the 99.999% radical pro-Obama media -
- Obama is barely breaking even with Romney on polls now (while spending mucho more than he can raise) and just now today on FNC Obama’s fundraiser is admitting he is getting clobbered by Romney/Ryan fundraising by 2:1 and even 3:1
- He claims it is “just because Romney really just started....” - while Obama has been raising money for a long time -
- Duz that make any sense to you?
- Early on Obama and his Chi-Town Thugs bragged they would raise a billion smackeroos
- and now they once more blame “Romney the evil businessman” -
-
Employers are expected to have increased payrolls by 125,000 workers last month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters ahead of Labor Department figures due on Sept. 7, a step down from July’s 163,000 job gain. The public sector will continue to shed jobs, with a decline of 12,000 expected in August.
ADP is always higher than the non-farm. Number will be about 150k
Joe Biden math. J-O-B-S
Yeah, but who knows, I went to school in Mississippi...:))
I need some help...could someone post the picture of Dear Leader’s campaign kick off in Ohio where there is less than a full house? Thanks, I have a friend who did not see it.
I wonder if Boehner has any clout that he can lend to Romney. Does the Speaker have coattails?
Ha! You are quite a kidder!!!
What are the internals of this poll?
How many percent Republican/Democrat/Independent?
That’s the important data.
Good to see a post-convention bounce. Obama is really trying to sell this auto industry thing. We shall whether that gives him a bounce. Ohio is still going to be a very close contest and as goes Ohio so the nation will go IMO.
Should this read, "but [Democrats] trail substantially among voters 30-49 years of age"?
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