University of Colorado Prediction Model: Romney Wins 320 - 218

National Polls ^ | 9/7/12 | staff

[LucianOfSamasota]

If you're following the electoral college predictions on this site, you'd see that all of the major analysts say Obama will win in November.

But one model by the University of Colorado (released in late August) projects Romney to win in a landslide so I wanted to share that here for your review.

From the Colorado.edu news release

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

According to their analysis, ... Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent...

From theDC:

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight still projects a likely Obama victory.

[Crimson Elephant]

I just cannot see what people who predict Obama the favorite are seeing. There is NO WAY he wins Fl, NC, and Indiana again, and Ohio and VA are clearly very close...so there is no reasoning to make Obama a clear EC favorite.

[pogo101]

Hey, maybe here in California, we’ll hold Obama under 65%!!

[Future Snake Eater]

Intrade also had Obamacare being struck down by SCOTUS by a pretty wide margin. As the decision loomed, the gap closed pretty quickly, but it was still wrong on that one, and that was a BIG one.

[thingumbob]

Even with the keystone pipeline debacle and the EPA fight against the coal industry courtesy of the O’bummer administration?

[WalterSkinner]

..the best scenario for Obama gives him around 200 EVs--I don't think it will be that close

CREATE YOUR OWN EV MAP

[kingattax]

this model has a 100% accuracy record for the last 32 years.

it even correctly predicted the 2000 outcome that Bush would lose the popular vote while winning the electoral college.

[DrDude]

I have been following closely and use the create a map on RCP. I have been adjusting since Romney locked up the Nomination. I believe you are very close. I have the best case scenario for BO at 221 EV’s. Just my thoughts.
Intrade isn’t really that accurate. It is legal gambling.

[Poison Pill]

The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.

It's generally accurate at the time of the event. In this case on election day. It was dead wrong on the SCOTUS Obamacare decision.

[ShasheMac]

Hey, no more worries, it’s all over, I just made ‘em all red! No need to thank me.

[Leto]

Intrade is also a small enough market that a campaign can buy the desired result with pocket change, I prefer the economic model.

[Reily]

He will NOT win Virginia.

The novelty act is old now, skittles did not rain down from heaven. There is little enthusiasm among the “usual suspects” now. There is much more on the GOP side in spite of the fact its Romney. Romney is running a much more professional campaign here in Northern Virginia then McCain did. It's visible and aggressive. I have yet to see a Zero Zomba going door to door in my neighborhood. That was an almost weekly occurrence in 2008.

[matthew fuller]

I’ve never invested any money there, but I do consider them as important, and valid as most polls.

[matthew fuller]

Current Intrade odds-

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.3%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
42.5%

[Future Snake Eater]

They can definitely be pretty accurate, but they’re far from the final word like some folks tend to think. Up until the Obamacare decision, I probably would’ve counted them as practically infallible.

[Thickman]

InTrade is much more difficult to participate in since the law was passed ot allowing U.S. citizens to use credit cards. It takes several days for checks or wire transfers to clear. I quit using the site - I assume others have as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if money were being “invested” (read: George Soros) just to skew the numbers in hopes of influencing the conventional wisdom.

[1035rep]

Mitt Romney’s vice president July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%