Posted on 09/08/2012 7:11:20 AM PDT by blam
JP MORGAN: Global Growth Is Bottoming
Matthew Boesler
Sep. 8, 2012, 8:35 AM
Yesterday's jobs report highlighted weakness in the U.S. economy.
Europe is sinking deeper into recession, though the ECB has momentarily stabilized financial markets.
Fears of a hard landing in China are rising fast as economic data continues its downward trajectory.
JP Morgan economists Bruce Kasman, David Hensley, and Joseph Lupton, however, say it looks like we've reached a bottom, and they expect global economic growth to stabilize shortly.
In a note to clients, they write:
With this week’s August PMI release and new information on July activity, the DFM-Eco index estimate of current quarter growth rose to 1.8%. Interestingly, the rise in our nowcaster is driven by July activity readings that were stronger than what was anticipated by the July PMI. The index estimate is now in line with our bottom-up forecast (2%) that looks for a stabilization of global growth this quarter.
With growth bottoming, attention now turns to assessing whether private sector behavior and policy stances are aligned to deliver the modest lift built into the forecast. Our forecast does not expect much in the way of growth, with global GDP expected to accelerate only a touch to a still-subpar 2.4% annualized pace in pace in 4Q12. In this regard, the recent data have been mixed, raising more “maybes” than certainties. The news from consumers remains upbeat. Our estimates of current quarter global consumption growth was lifted again this week as July readings were firm and auto sales reports for August surprised to the upside. Although less broad-based, it appears that the pace of global inventory accumulation has slowed.
However, JPMorgan acknowledges the cause for concern at the macro data level as well:
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
As soon as we can get rid of the albatross named Obama the world economy will start growing again.
Great, now these geniuses are telling us we’ve reached the bottom. Yeah, like I believe these guys. Obama and his cronies are the anchor around the neck of the economy.
This called “talking your book”. If they can’t convince investors to keep throwing their money down a rat hole, the rats who live in that hole won’t have any money.
don’t worry, there will be an article out next month with the word “unexpected” in it related to this.
Bottoming usually means bottoming out, as in not getting any worse.
What the article says is actually worse than its title suggests.
I take it back—I see that’s more or less what the article says too.
Since Algore and his “climatologists” pulled the whole notion out of their butts, it seems appropriate that it’s “bottoming”
These people are so full of crap. Their goal, their only goal is to keep the sheeple trading. Up or down, win or lose, it does not matter what the money does, as long as there are trades they make money. Yes, I am railing against the system where there is no choice but it is just like the Federal Reserve. They print the money they loan.
Sometimes, while spewing their BS they get it right, only sometimes.
“coming” recession?
Buddy, we’re in it and we aren’t getting out of it until someone leads the way. Until someone starts promoting “can do” instead of “can’t be done” we are stuck on empty.
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