Skip to comments.Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data
Posted on 09/10/2012 1:53:50 PM PDT by tellw
The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
Unskewed? Something the LGBT community wouldn’t understand?
It seems that every poll I see samples Dems in greater numbers than Republicans. Is there a reason for this other than to make Dems look stronger?
The Examiner isn’t playing along with the disinformation blitz of today?
The “bounce” of the DNC was probably negative, so the Rats put out their marching orders to the media - giving us the current news cycle and its rosy reports for the One.
Of course all the anti-Romneys in here can’t wait with ther “I told you so”. It ain’t over yet.
I don’t buy this one. You can’t cherry pick Rasmussen’s partisan breakdown and use it to re-adjust Gallup’s numbers, while rejecting the Rasmussen poll at the same time.
You are wise Grasshopper
.....that's exactly what their up ta...
Always look for Likely voters (LV) over Registered voters (RV)in those polls too. Likely voters are a more accurate pulse of what's happening...
Also pay attention to the timing the poll was taken. Weekends traditionally poll Democrats at much higher rates because the Republicans are out doing things on the weekends. If the polls are done during the weekdays the numbers for Obozo and Romney are usually closer.
Axelrod got to them..big time along with the DOJ.
Democrats outnumber Republicans nationwide. State to state is a different story. As far as I know, Gallup is a reputable polling organization. Was their poll “skewed” to account for a gap between Republican and Democrat registrations/voters?
2012 - "If the poll ain't skewed, Obama's screwed".
“Axelrod got to them..big time along with the DOJ.”
Of course that’s what happened. Axelrod’s thuggish intimidation of Gallup when Hussein was behind was a huge story. I cannot understand why it wasn’t covered, or even mentioned in any of the media.
If someone like Rasmussen is also skewing his poll, that is scary. What about Romney’s internal polls? Wouldn’t his campaign find a way to communicate that these polls are inaccurate if his internals showed something significantly different? I don’t know what to believe.
Well there are a couple of reasons for it.
FIRST, party IDs are self-reported. So they tend to change -- if Republicans are popular more people will self-identify as Republicans, regardless of whether or not they register by party in a particular state. So it makes sense that there would be more self-reported Dems if polls show Obama ahead. I grant that it's weird and seems counter-intuitive.
SECOND, there are more "registered" Dems than GOPers in the country. As far as I know, this has always been the case. That may or may not have anything to do w/the party people tell pollsters they belong to. There are a bunch of reasons for the Dem registration advantage -- still a few conservative Southern Dems who now vote exclusively Republican, alienated Northern Catholics who still ID as Dems but often vote GOP, etc.
ALSO, we've seen a growth in the number of Independents, voters who often, as seems likely in November, skew Republican.
So much for the “pressure” put on by David Axelrod & Company. That such pressure is employed in the first place, attests to the dishonest intent of just about everything the Chicago Machine has brought to national politics.
REAL polling, that which is read in the inner offices of both the Romney Campaign and the Obama campaign, probably indicate a much bigger bump for Romney than for the Current Occupant. Because the two conventions were practically a continuous event with no serious polling taken in between the gatherings, to claim that Romney got “no boost” while Current Occupant got a 2% or 5% or 8% boost is just whistling Dixie from your anal orfice.
No matter what the spread, the regime of the Current Occupant (which cannot be distinguished from the re-election campaign) will spin it up as a sort of psy-war tactic, in an attempt to get the conservatives squabbling with the more entrenched Republican establishment. But why would or should we be doing Obama’s work for him?
Maybe people like the Obama’s to entertain them by taking Big Vacations and playing Golf. It is a reality show we all pay for with our taxes. Only certain people even watch the news, when they are not texting some non-sense, or talking on a cell phone.
Sometimes it goes deeper than R and D. They also oversample women. Easier to hide. The recent PPP poll showing Obummer up +5 in Ohio not only oversampled Dems +4, but also oversampled women +9.
The Gallup poll would take into account a day before the Dem convention as well as the first day which was a dud.
This may be a better big picture view than only the convention dynamics of the last few days.
This seems correct.
I suspect in addition that Rasmussen has also had to change their party affiliation/turnout model, which is also dynamic and based on, I believe, a separate poll.
So a parallel change in different Rasmussen polls could magnify a bump. This could easily work either way.