Posted on 09/10/2012 8:49:12 PM PDT by reprobate
The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack...
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
This result looks about right. There is ZERO chance that the guy 14% ahead with independents would be behind by 6
Keep in mind it’s registered voters, not likely voters.
but I just sent in $100 bucks to Romney....
the time is NOW people....we either get this done or we don't...
Romney has more money and is better connected than McCain, he's in a better situation, he's a better candidate.....he can do this....
come on folks...unite and conquer!
Ignore the polls and work to defeat 0bama as if that jug eared freak was 10 percent ahead, and Romney & Ryan were 15 percent behind. The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, and the 0bamunist Ministry of Information (aka the lamestream media) is going to toe the mark and walk the line per Axelrod & Company right up to Election Night, believe that. Those media whores have been bought and paid for by the White House.
Looks like Drudge is pushing back against the libmedia push poll strategy, aka Operation Demoralize.
Some stat guy/gal could become real popular if s/he set up a blog specifically to re-skew bogus poll data.
While I strongly agree that the poll is skewed, I wouldn’t go so far as to say Romney is up significantly. Most reasonable polls over time have shown about a 4-point Dem edge. That means that the surveys based on a 10-point Dem edge are way off, but I’m skeptical that there’s an actual 1-point GOP edge.
Furthermore, extrapolating a small sample size 54-40 Romney lead among a handful of independents is questionable.
I’m not saying this to be a fly in the ointment. As my name and start date imply, I registered and started posting to debunk some of the Gore mumbo jumbo 12 years ago in Florida. The poll is definitely skewed. I just don’t think it’s as skewed as the Examiner thinks. My read is that it’s a 1-point Obama lead, which is totally margin of error.
It's not because a lead in the polls can energize voting, it is because (I suspect) that their CHEATING plans are so monstrous in scope and magnitude, that a bogus win will be easier to sell if the polls showed a (bogus, of course) lead.
It's (I suspect) planned cover for a Big Con.
.
It’s simple math, yet the pollsters refuse to budge. Take the mix of how people identify themselves, whether they voted in either of the last two elections, multiply by 80%. If independent, then apply the poll, only if they live in the 10 states that matter.
Sheesh.
I agree, don’t pay any attention to that Commie psy-ops bullcrap, those polling guys are as whored-out as the rest of the MSM...they are no longer trying to quantify public opinion, but INFLUENCE public opinion!
According to the article there were 800+ voters polled and only 37 indies. Now that’s clearly skewed for Bombo but there’s no statistical way for the article’s author to take the Ras numbers on party self ID and apply them to this poll and come up with Romney by 8. You just don’t have enough responses from indies to make any kind of statistical guess. What can be said is as Allah said on HA that Gallup is forcing their respondees to choose D or R,OR the poll is completely unreliable.
I would probably skew it slightly just in case Ras is a bit too GOP-generous in the party ID, but I would still see a slight Romney lead, 2-3 points right now. I don’t hear many talk about supporting him really at all, including many former Dems. Only my die-hard Dem friends have expressed any enthusiasm at all.
I would probably skew it slightly just in case Ras is a bit too GOP-generous in the party ID, but I would still see a slight Romney lead, 2-3 points right now. I don’t hear many talk about supporting him really at all, including many former Dems. Only my die-hard Dem friends have expressed any enthusiasm at all.
I am a bit more generous giving it a 2 point Romney lead, but I could see a slight Obama lead of maybe 1 point at best. There just is not enthusiasm for him this time, but there is for Romney in comparison.
Not huge enthusiasm yet, and I think that is what keeps him back. I think that will change over the debates. He appears to be taking them seriously, already prepping etc. He did well during the primary debates.
Certainly reason to be concerned, but nothing to freak out about yet. Too much in life to worry about everything. That said, if by mid-October we see a growing Obama lead....that will be a time to have serious concerns.
Thanks for your observations FRiend, if you have a ping list, feel free to add me to it, I value your perspective on this.
bttt
The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:
The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709
Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.
Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [ +10.26%] Likely Voter oversampled poll. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.
dvwjr
Rasmussen has obama at 50, Romney at 45. CNN may be off, but probably not by a lot. It appears obama did get some bump after the DNC. Why? probably because we have a lot of morons in this country.
Seaplaner is right. Massive fraud is about to be unleashed.
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