Posted on 09/11/2012 5:34:05 AM PDT by RobinMasters
You are assuming that the only people that voted for him were hardcore Democrats. Bad assumption. I think there are at least 14 million soccer moms, feel gooders, and independents that said let’s give this guy a shot. Remember, he was running against McCain which only made that “what the heck” decision even easier.
100% of all voters are committed to vote one way or the other in accordance with their interests as they perceive them, and those interests are family, social, economic, religious affiliation, part of the country ~
Change is slow, but with single member district voting, we end up with just two large parties. You have to have 50%+1 to win. All those dissatisfied with the results of a large winning party may gravitate to the other large party to help it win more often.
These two large parties are surrounded by a thin fringe of political interests ~ which rarely win anything.
One reason the Democrat party has more affiliations than the Republicans is simply that they used to win far more races than the Republicans. As time has changed and Democrats have tired of losing, they have moved to the Republican label, but usually as part of a broader affiliation ~ e.g. geography, religion, social, etc.
Ergo, white Southerners became Republicans and began winning again. Black Southerners became Democrats and won almost all the mayorality and city council positions in the Souf'.
That's very positive feed back for both groups ~ after all, in politics WINNING IS THE ONLY THING.
What you are seeing as a sub-sample was most likely a totally independent poll into a specific group. Far cheaper to conduct than any sub-sample.
Anybody that basis there vote on a convention doesn’t deserve to vote.
That would mean that 100% are more influenced by logic and principle than by more superficial concerns.
The American Idol type voters, the Emotional voters, and the Blue Jay Shiny Object voters are influenced by external manipulation rather than logic. They are the swing voters, and election results rest on their capricious voting behavior. They may call themselves Republican, Democrat or Independent, but what they have in common is that they are influenced by form over substance (e.g. - "Vote for the Cool Black Guy").
At the same time you want to run a campaign to discourage the other guy so he doesn't want to vote!
The idea that there's a mother load of swing voters easily persuaded by emotional appeals is MAGICAL THINKING.
Many people are front runners. Just like how you describe your sister - they want to be with the winner. It’s sad but true.
Interesting analysis.
Bush gained many votes from people who were tired of the Clinton years. People showed up at the polls who do not ordinarily vote like the Amish.
This appears to be the case with Reagan vs. Carter as well, although there you had a charismatic candidate with a lot of recognition as an actor and governor.
I think Romney will get more than 60 million votes. Obama will lose many core supported including the largest group who wanted to see the first black president elected.
What we saw in the democrat convention was trying to stir up fear of what people would lose under Romney. And most people do not buy it. More people fear four more years like the ones we’ve just gone through.
Also, mid-term elections showed a huge shift to the right as well as the right becoming much more energized. There is just not that much enthusiasm for hard-left policies the DNC is pushing.
So, to answer your question, Romney does not need to do anything to get Obama voters to stay home. He just needs to stay on-message with conservative principles being the solution and not do anything stupid.
Since Bush there has been a shift in numbers of democrats, republicans and independents. I think there have been a significant number who have moved from both parties to independent because both parties are too far left for their respective bases. That means independents will lean more for Romney this election than in previous ones.
Last time (2008) Democrats had a massively successful voter registration campaign AMONG DEMOCRATS and that was followed with a massively successful get out the vote campaign.
They got an extra 8 million or so votes over prior periods without a lot of seat jumping.
Of course those people are less than motivated this election ~ they're getting nothing out of voting for Obama except higher rates of unemployment.
Republicans saw fewer voters last time simply because the top candidate, McCain, sounded like a Democrat, and then he gave up before the race was really on. Whatever get out the vote campaign there was, it kind of rolled up the sidewalks and went home early as well. The folks who would be doing that work just weren't there for McCain ~ again, that's because the GOP-e didn't ask them to participate, so they didn't.
Now, can somebody turn Romney into a master dialectition of Conservative principles AND make him charismatic? That'll get out the Socoms ~ although he might have to repudiate his current non-RTL RTL stance, maybe even become a Baptist or a Catholic ~ but if they see some positive movement their way, they'll show up.
Without some showing of sincerity though, they won't be showing up for get out the vote, and might not even vote.
Romney's best bet is to dispirit the Democrats and have them stay home barring an attempt to go after Republican voters.
Tell Mark that's the way it works, and that's how you win, and the candidates have to make some personal sacrifices or they just don't win!
Believe me, people are crying (at least in their hearts) when they get back from the weekly grocery shopping, or from getting gas after a hard week of work—if they’re lucky enough to have work. They’re exhausted after weeks of trying to find work, with no success.
If their lack of success is due to changes in their industry that have sent all their jobs overseas or abolished them altogether, then they may know whom to blame (unless the unions have handed them a line of balderdash that “it’s all the bosses’ fault”, and they believe it).
Then there is the fear that their doctor will retire early, and that they will have trouble finding another one, and if they or their children get sick, it’s all over.
It shouldn’t be too hard for Republican candidates to remind middle class Americans about their daily and weekly worries and heartbreaks, and to place the blame squarely where it belongs.
Do I hear a dog whistle blowing?
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