ABC/WashPost Poll: Obama Bump Dropped From 6 Points to ‘About Even’ Saturday

NRO ^ | SEPTEMBER 11, 2012 | Jim Geraghty

[ConservativeDude]

Are there really people who are so brain-dead and wishy-washy that a glitzy show can convince them to change their views for a couple of days and then they revert to their previous views?”

Alas, I think we all fear the affirmative on that question....

[pabianice]

Times in history at least 75% of all registered voters have actually voted for president: zero.

[muawiyah]

In 2008 Obama got 69 million votes; McCain got 59 million votes.

Assume for a moment that Obama voters are going to either vote for him, or not, and that Romney voters are about the same as the McCain voters and they will either vote for Romney, or not.

Knowing that McCain got about 4 million fewer votes than George Bush in 2004, and understanding that the downward trend of Republican voters reflected in that could result in another 4 million vote loss, we might currently have only 55 million voters available to put Romney over the top.

For him to beat Obama it is necessary for Obama to lose 14 million votes from his last electoral effort.

So, figure it out, how does Romney get 14 million hard core Democrat Obama voters to just stay home this time?

[MrB]

The worst thing I heard of was an 18-19 yr old saying he voted for Clinton in 1996 because he thought he was “supposed” to vote for who he thought would win.

[Dan in Wichita]

Who in the world ARE the people who are so easily swayed by a convention?

These are the people who will be targeted by the October Surprise.

[ScottinVA]

Are there really people who are so brain-dead and wishy-washy that a glitzy show can convince them to change their views for a couple of days and then they revert to their previous views?

Absolutely. Americans are wowed by exactly that.

[muawiyah]

In 2010 we had just Conservatives and Republicans running the campaigns with candidates they'd selected. The old Presidential wing (which we call the GOP-e) really wasn't involved.

Of course we won!

This is a GOP-e manufactured race ~ our chances of winning against any particular Democrat are much diminished as a consequence.

I think you see the problem here ~ it's not the polls, it's the politicians!

[John W]

“So, figure it out, how does Romney get 14 million hard core Democrat Obama voters to just stay home this time?”

Doesn’t that assume all 69 million were that? Obviously they weren’t.

[newzjunkey]

Paul Ryan’s taken time off from the campaign trail this week for some House votes.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Woooooow...

[InterceptPoint]

If he uses the self-identification provided by the people he polled, there's your answer ...

I'm pretty sure that Rasmussen does NOT do that. He has a turnout model, we just don't know what it is so we can't pick his poll apart like we can the WP, CNN etc. propaganda polls.

[tobyhill]

It's a geographically, racially, gender, etc, weighted poll. Party affiliation has rarely varied by more than a couple points.
If you know that the 2010 elections throughout the country showed an equal amount of affiliations yet less than two years later the poll shows a wide variable then more than likely the weighted sample is wrong.
It is a joke poll.
A true poll will ask 1 question with 1000 people in each state through 50 states (no questions on party, race, gender, etc), “who will you vote for”? No need to weigh the poll because with 50,000 there will be a very good base sample.

[GeronL]

That might make more sense f McCain hadn’t basically conceded defeat a week or two before the election.

“We have nothing to fear from Barack Obama. Barack Obama is a good man. He’ll make a fine President...”

I paraphrase but it was something like that. That is when I knew it was over for real. He totally squandered the excitement that Palin had brought to the campaign.

[bray]

Either that or the polls were fake just like Global Warming. To think most FReepers fell for it again makes you think we are all Charlie Browns.

Pray for America

[muawiyah]

Sorry, there's no weighting in these polls ~ they do a nationwide random sample ~ call those people ~ then get their numbers.

What you are describing is a stratified poll with pre-selected individuals of given characteristics and persuasions. Such polls can be done AT IMMENSE COST!

[muawiyah]

Didn't Romney do that already ~ the Mr. Nice Guy routine?

Campaign hasn't even started and the GOP-e guy is giving up ~ guess that's different than what McCain did ~ give up later on, but give up is give up!

[muawiyah]

There are all sorts of different polling methods these guys use ~ some cost quite a bit of money. None of them do this work for free. Ras undoubtedly has a wide array of techniques but I bet in depth sampling occurs only in what are popularly known as “swing states”.

[muawiyah]

I work on the simple theory that people who vote tend to vote the same way time after time unless there's some sort of national emergency, or a nationwide trend is coming to a head, e.g. that white Southerners are becoming Republicans, or observant Jews are becoming Republicans, or church attending Catholics are becoming Republican.

There are very few people who bounce back and forth ~ and even your Independents end up voting for a Democrat or a Republican, and usually the same way every election.

The game plan under this theory is to secure your own base and turn them out for the election. At the same time you want to suppress the other guy's base and deter them from showing up for the election.

BTW, if you're a Democrat I'll let you in on a secret, the election this year is on WEDNESDAY, after the First Tuesday!

The alternative theory is that there's a broad middle full of independent moderates who are persuaded by messages from the candidates.

Actually, I think the alternative theory is garbage, and mostly because I watched LBJ use my preferred theory to whip up on Goldwater (who was, in fact, the first guy to propose it), and then saw Nixon do a job on the Democrats twice, and then saw Ronaldus Magnus do it to the Dems twice, and even George Bush do it to them twice!

The alternative theory was used by McGovern, Carter, Ford, Algore, Lurch, McCain, even Nixon in his first run, etc. People who think there's a broad middle and who campaign for their votes have a truly horrific LOSS record.

[tobyhill]

They may not admit this poll is weighed but anytime a poll mentions sub samples then they did weigh it. They may have randomly called people but there is a series of questions they ask before they get to the poll that they don't admit to. I was almost polled last week but it immediately ended when I said I made over a certain amount of money.

[proudtexasmama]

The concept that Carter was up +17 over Reagan is laughable looking back. Reagan won it by +9. That means the polls were 26 points off. This +5 to +3 business is only to keep people watching the news and to keep democratic voters somewhat interested. If they thought he was going to win they would have him up far more than +5. They know that the farther out on that limb they go, the harder they will fall. No story here people!