Posted on 09/11/2012 8:42:40 AM PDT by JerseyanExile
Somehow, this doesn’t look like a convention bounce for Barack Obama, either. According to Quinnipiac’s first likely-voter look at New Jersey — a state Obama won in 2008 by fifteen points — Mitt Romney comes in only seven points back, with a narrow lead among independents [see update below]:
President Barack Obama tops Gov. Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, 51 – 44 percent among New Jersey likely voters, who say the president will do a better job on Medicare and health care while Romney will do a better job on the economy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This is the first measure of New Jersey likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
The gender and racial gaps are wide as Obama leads 57 – 38 percent among women and 92 – 3 percent among blacks. Romney leads 51 – 44 percent among men and 54 – 41 percent among white voters. Romney has a thin 48 – 44 percent lead among independent voters.
New Jersey voters give Obama a 52 – 44 percent favorability, while Romney has a 43 – 41 percent score. Vice President Joseph Biden gets a 44 – 41 percent favorability. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney’s running mate, has a split 33 – 34 percent favorability, with 33 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.
Readers may be wondering about the sample split — and they should. The D/R/I in this poll is weighted out to 34/26/36 — and that may be a little too generous to Republicans. In 2008, Obama won the state by 15 with exit polling showing a turnout model of 44/28/28. A year later, Chris Christie beat the Obama-backed Jon Corzine in the gubernatorial election, and in 2010 New Jersey didn’t have a Senate race at stake, so I’ve been unable to find any exit polling since 2008 to judge the turnout model for this election. Quinnipiac looks like it’s a reasonable model, but it’s ten points lower for Democrats than in 2008, and that seems a little pessimistic for Obama in the Democrat-heavy Garden State.
Interestingly, while Obama won New Jersey by 15 in 2008, he only beat John McCain among independents by four, 51/47. An eight-point swing in this demo would tend to erode the overall lead, but wouldn’t be decisive if the turnout model remains the same as 2008.
If this poll provides an accurate look at the race in New Jersey, Obama might need to spend some money there to solidify his hold on it. Seven points would be tough for Romney to overcome, but it’s not impossible. More to the point, though, is the drop in standing of Obama in what is almost always a safe Democratic state — and that may indicate that less-safe blue states (Pennsylvania, perhaps?) might be even more at risk.
Update: For some reason, this poll appears on Quinnipac’s RSS feed today — but the poll was released on September 6th. I’ve never noticed a delay in the RSS feed publication like that for Quinnipiac, but I will keep a closer eye on it in the future. The poll was taken before the Democratic convention.
I care not what Jersey does, I thought they all moved down here to screw up NC.
Romney needs to be up about 15 in New Jersey if he has any hope of winning if after Trenton’s done counting the votes.
It’s a really red state but the fact that “O” has gone from a 15 point advantage to 7 points shows that his support is down considerably even in his liberal enclaves!!
How can any politician help with 'their issues' when 'their issues' don't appear to be anything more than skin color?
blacks are the most racist group in America today bar none.
And it begs the question, is he really down in Ohio? I think not!!
Does anyone see the possibilities he can tighten this up in 7 weeks and even get NJ and have Coat-Tails? Ya think those in Soprano Land aren't also tired of their Brother-in-Law chronically out of work etc etc etc?
Believe people believe, it will be a blowout of historic proportions...
Similar narrowing also occurring in CT — single digit lead for Obama. With these narrowing polls being replicated in multiple deep blue states one has to think the majority of polls are not reflecting the degree to which Romney is doing well across the swing states. In short, many of the national polls simply don’t jibe well with the facts on the ground.
Aside: I’m in Northern Virginia on the Beltway today and noting multiple Romney bumper stickers and no Obama versions. I’m feeling better.
bttt
The mourning process is still in progress.
People who voted for Obama last time like Obama, want him to be a good president, and most of all don’t want to admit they made a mistake.
But, when faced with the reality of having to make a vote, they will realize that voting for Obama was a mistake, and that we can’t stand 4 more years. They’ll vote for Romney (or more accurately, against Obama).
I think we’re seeing 1980 Carter/Reagan all over again. And, I think we’ll see the same results. An anti-incumbent landslide.
The only question is will this landslide extend to the house and senate (it didn’t in 1980). Romney’s job is to make people see that the problem isn’t just Obama; the problem is the entire Democratic party.
Here we go again. Every four years we hear that “our” candidate is within striking distance in NJ. And guess what always happens on election night? Basically if the country votes for Obama they deserve what they’re going to get. Stupid, ignorant morons.
I have a black friend, sadly far gone into senility now, who used to just grieve for the loss of the black community as it was when he was young. He always pointed to The Great Society as the point where it all fell through. He was a Reagan man back in the day. He is one of those cases where senility probably made him happier than cognizance of the present state of things.
Except that we are part of that country and we don’t deserve Obama. If Romney loses to 0, then Karl Rove, Ann Coulter, etal, better run for the hills.
“I think we’re seeing 1980 Carter/Reagan all over again. And, I think we’ll see the same results. An anti-incumbent landslide.”
Strictly as to how the election will play out, I agree. I think the Obamachine is hollow and brittle compared to ‘08.
“If Romney loses to 0, then Karl Rove, Ann Coulter, etal, better run for the hills.”
Romney is going to win, and the aforementioned will preen and gloat like only an elitist can. How long the bloom will remain on the rose is another question entirely.
Au contraire, The 1980 Reagan win ushered in Republican control of the Senate. The House had a large deficit. Interesing that Reagan still got most of his agenda by convincing enough Dems in the House to vote with him, unlike the present President who has NO ability to talk with the opposition. Maybe that’s because he is so sure of his own postions and can only verbally abuse rather than persuade.
Au contraire, The 1980 Reagan win ushered in Republican control of the Senate. The House had a large deficit. Interesing that Reagan still got most of his agenda by convincing enough Dems in the House to vote with him, unlike the present President who has NO ability to talk with the opposition. Maybe that’s because he is so sure of his own postions and can only verbally abuse rather than persuade.
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