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RCP Poll: Virginia Poll: R 49%, 0 44%
RCP ^ | 9-11-12

Posted on 09/11/2012 12:56:41 PM PDT by Arthurio

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To: muawiyah
Registration has only a tenuous association with affiliation.

Bingo. ;) Hence (for instance) the common '80s phrase "Reagan Democrats."

161 posted on 09/12/2012 5:34:32 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: RKBA Democrat
Two of the major problems in predicting Virginia political behavior has to do with Doug Wilder ~ in the Midwest he'd be considered pretty much a classical conservative Democrat or a less conservative Republican.

He's fairly typical of the black leadership class here, so when it comes to state affairs these guys generally go along with longer jail sentences, strong execution policy, low taxes, and fiscally sound state financial management over and beyond what the constitution requires.

Alas, the other problem also involves Democrats ~ that's the crowd in Arlington and Alexandria who are literally tied into the national Democrat party through their employment ~ politics, publishing and Congressional staffers and their friends.

Usually these guys end up working at cross purposes to the Virginia black leadership elite, and that's where Republicans can move in strong and do whatever their hearts desire. We are having such a time now. Unfortunately we have a Governor who is simply not able to take advantage of this since he has no long term goals ~ just short term stuff (Toll bridges, toll roads, etc.)

While there's a chance the black turnout in VA is going to be lower than normal, the crazoid national Democrats will probably all show up this time.

Ordinarily you could push for a higher Socon turnout to offset that, but not this time. This has happened over and over in this state. Probably why the Romney crowd has minimized their contact with the "broad masses" (as they might put it) because all they can do is PO the VA Socons more and more.

The Obama crowd seems to have come to the same conclusion as well.

The result is we have a very evenly divided electorate that can, and has, gone either way, or both ways simultaneously, and both major campaigns are afraid to come here lest they lose more votes ~

162 posted on 09/12/2012 5:37:29 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: RKBA Democrat

Yep...I live in SE VA and in a fairly rural, agricultural area, not VABeach or Norfolk.
My home is located near a predominantly black community where lots of Obummer signs were displayed early in ‘08 but interestly, not one up this time...seriously, I try not to put too much into this but it’s striking how different things are this time around.


163 posted on 09/12/2012 6:01:36 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: JLS
Actually, given the current toss up states, Romney could get to 270 despite losing Ohio, Florida and Virginia. To do so requires that he win North Carolina, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado and either Nevada or Iowa.

And PA.

164 posted on 09/12/2012 6:04:17 AM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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To: NeoCaveman

Right, sorry I was moving it in my list and forgot to add PA back.


165 posted on 09/12/2012 12:22:06 PM PDT by JLS
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To: JLS

Wiining PA & MI but not VA, OH, and FL would be pretty wild.

Since PA & MA are lefter than the other 3.


166 posted on 09/12/2012 12:24:15 PM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

Yes, indeed. That’s what I’m seeing and hearing, too.

A liberal cannot successfully run a conservative campaign. The harder Romney tries to sound like a conservative, the more he comes across as somebody who has no real beliefs at all. He’s doing a pretty good job of concealing any real beliefs that may actually inhabit his liberal soul. He just comes across as empty, spent, invisible.

I remain hopeful that after this election, after Romney has left the political scene, those who have been dabbling in Romneyism will become reconciled with conservative values.


167 posted on 09/14/2012 4:41:28 PM PDT by Tau Food (Tom Hoefling for President - 2012)
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To: Tau Food

Go hang with your buddy Harry Reid ... Troll!
It’s obvious you’re Odumbo shill.


168 posted on 09/14/2012 4:53:42 PM PDT by TsonicTsunami08
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