POLL: OBAMA UP 5 IN D+11 POLL (it's another Blivet Poll! - LOL!)

Breitbart/Big Government ^ | 9-13-2012 | Mike Flynn

[sickoflibs]

RDE :”Seems being lousy at your job and letting people die makes him more popular.”

Well not everyone is as skeptical and cynical as me. I see through them all.

So in this case they are following who looks and sounds better, O or R. It's the picture on the box. Obama put “I killed Bin Laden after Republicans ignored him” on his box. What can ya do?

[snarkytart]

Ah okay. Well I hope Ras is as accurate this time as last because so far he’s out there on his own with Romney being ahead right now.

[lacrew]

“Unfortunately, virtually every other poll is showing that this election cycle more people self identify as Democrats”

Notwithstanding Rasmussen’s accuracy in 2008, in correlating party affiliation with presidential election outcome, I’ll bite.

Gallup gives Dems a 3 point advantage in affiliation.

This rundown from Huffington Post of all places shows spreads of 11, 8, 7, 3, 7, 8, 9, 11, 7, and 8. So 11 is on the high end...and the thread this poll is about features an 11 point oversample. Again, if one were going for accuracy...and inclined to average polls like the RCP...the oversample should be around 7. (and really, I don’t know if I trust some of these polls anyway - ‘Democracy Corps’?? Pew?)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

But....we know that exit polling from 2010 showed a higher percentage of Republicans voting than Democrats...by 2-3 points. Accuracy would force me to change the oversample to 5 points.

But, in all the polls listed above, the undecided and independents range from 30-47%. Since the incumbent is a known quantity, the fight for independents is really a case of Romney’s needing to seal the deal. If they call themselves ‘independent’ now, it means they don’t have a great taste in their mouth for O’Barry....and they are Romney’s to loose. I think it is very reasonable to expect Romney to pick up independents by 10 points (55-45). So, if he gets a 10% advantage in approximately 40% of the electorate, that’s 4 points.

Where are we now? Perhaps a 1% dem oversample is merited.

Why do I care? I care for the exact same reasons I cared in 2000, when Florida was announced before polls closed in the panhandle. Voting takes a little bit of effort; and, people won’t go, if they think there is no chance of winning.

Do I think its a conspiracy? I think the vast majority of people in the media are liberal; and, they readily accept things to be true that don’t pass the smell test. Speaking of smell tests, just sit back and ponder ‘Is Barry really 5,6,7 points ahead?’. Does that really make sense? He won by 7 points at the height of Hopium...is he really still that popular? Its not believable...yet the media not only believe it, they report it. I’d tell the pollster to go try again - there is no way Obama is that far ahead. If he is able to pull out a win, it will be by the slimmest of margins, defying all historical precedent concerning unemployment. It cannot possibly be the landslide the polls are continually predicting.

[Impy]

Morris says that

A)All the polls assume too high a Black turnout

and

B)Undecidedes will go strongly against Osama.

I hope so.

[justiceseeker93]

More people identify themselves as DEM but not by 11%. Rasmussen says the margin is very low now. More and more people are identifying themselves Republican. The polls are using older models.

I don't know what you mean by "people," but Ras himself did a party identification poll as recently as August. (I believe that only likely voters for November were included, but I'm not sure.) It turned out that there were more Republicans than 'Rats in that group by 3-4 percentage points, about 37-34 in favor of the GOP. There were about 30% independents.