CNN/ORC poll
50.4 percent Democrats and
45.4 percent Republicans
4.2 percent independents.
Check out the independents. Independents under-sampled and Democrats are over-sampled 12.1 percent.
“Unskewing this data to make up for the likely 25 percent under-sampling of independent voters shows the results are quite different. With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the Rasmussen numbers, this poll’s data would indicate a Romney lead over Obama of 53 percent to 45 percent. That is almost exactly the reverse of the 52 percent to 46 percent lead it reports in favor of Obama. The sampling skew of this poll actually reverses the result that should be shown by the data.”
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll
Looking at the comments on the Examiner and saw overwhelmingly positive response for Romney, even from moderate Dems. Good sign!
LOL CNN. Dems haven’t made 50% in party affiliation since probably 1964.
CNN/ORC poll
50.4 percent Democrats and
45.4 percent Republicans
4.2 percent independents.
I find it unfortunate that too many posters on Free Republic are so quick to look for Democrat poll oversampling that such a sloppy analysis of the CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A) by the Examiner is taken as gospel. Only 4.2% "Independents" in the CNN/ORC Likely Voter sample, really? The published data supports no such conclusion.
Demo- Indep- Repub-
Total crat endent lican
----- ----- ------ ------ -------- -------- --------
Obama,Biden, lean 52% 97% 40% 2%
Romney,Ryan, lean 46% 3% 54% 96%
Other * * * *
Neither 2% * 4% 2%
No opinion 1% * 2% *
Sampling Error +/-3.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5
The CNN/ORC question 1/1A table reproduced above has an unstated 95% confidence level (most poll do) for the (n~709) sample size of Likely Voters. The CNN/ORC table for the Total Likely Voter response has the margin of error (or confidence interval) of (+/- 3.5). This published sampling error for the Likely Voters is a rounded number as with the sample size of (n=709) the MoE is actually (+/- 3.68). Now that it is known that the CNN/ORC published MoE numbers are rounded, check the Democrat (+/- 6.0) sub-sampling error, this should be a sample size of 267. The Republican and Independent sub-sample error number of (+/-6.5) would both be derived from a sample size of 227. Since these published sample error number are rounded, they only indicate a range of sample sizes, depending on what the amount of rounding that was performed by CNN/ORC. The published sampling error number alone show that the sample contained more Democrats than either Republicans or Independents.
Rounded MoE (+/- 6.0) Rounded range 6.24 - 5.75 Sample # range 247 - 290 Rounded MoE (+/- 6.5) Rounded range 6.88 - 6.25 Sample # range 203 - 246
Given the above Likely Voter sample data the following analysis follows:
Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:
The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:
The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709
Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.
Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [+10.36%] Likely Voter oversampled poll, with Independents comprising around 32.3% of the likely voter sample. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.
dvwjr