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9/14/2012 CBS NYT Poll analyzed
My spreadsheet, Rasmussen Party ID numbers, CBS NYT ^ | 9/14/2012 | leto

Posted on 09/14/2012 9:03:41 PM PDT by Leto

Polls have caused a lot of consternation among my friends here. Some say to ignore polls, but this election season I have found them to be very consistent even thought the results vary quite a bit.

The key is understanding the turnout model the poll is using. In 2008 the turnout was +7.6% dem, in 2010 it was +1.3% R. In the last Rasmussen survey 8/2012 the party affiliation is +4.3% R.

Most polls are using turnout models that vary from +6 to +10% D. This is why Obama is leading in most polls.

The latest NYT/CBS poll has Obama +3 among likely voters 49-46%. Their turnout model is +6% D close to the 2008 turnout model. 35D/39R/32I for their likely voters in this poll.

I have a spreadsheet I use to see the results if the 2010 turnout model is used or any other model.

Below is the CBS NYT poll 'normalized' to reflect both the 2010 turnout model and the current Rasmussen party id.

TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obama; poll; romney; vanity
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To: Cruising For Freedom
You stop and think why Romney isn't "manning up" as you put it?

You get tough and down and dirty when your behind - despite the media hype Romney's own team knows he is leading and on the verge of being the next president. We know Romney has no problem throwing punches when he truly feels he is losing, ie the numerous times he had to fend off a hot challenger in the GOP primary. But he has all the people who don't like Obama already on his side, no need to fling red meat around and scare off the mushy few percenters he may need. It's politics, you may not like it but trust me there is calculation to it.

Romney knows what he is doing and is in to win it. He has several states that went Obama in 08 already picked off and is on the verge of sealing a few more. It does not help anyone but Obama for conservatives to keep panicking and trashing him. It's hard to do I know but at some point you have to trust him and his team, throw in your support, and vote.
41 posted on 09/14/2012 10:33:51 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Leto

I think the pollsters are wrong using 2008 percentages for sampling now

but I would worry more about the last week of polling baring a big surprise..which would be trailing and not caught likely...2000 missed a bit of Bush’s DUI final days which almost cost him the enchilada

if the election were to diverge significantly from the aggregate of the final week’s polling it would be the first time since..well ..Dewey

Romney does not excite so I do not think we will attain your 2010 model...and Obamacare is not as fresh

The waxing the Dems would take in 2010 was clearly foretold by the polls..but I think we beat the polls by a couple of points turnout wise

But I do think we will beat them over 2008 Dem-GOP turnout

if 59% of vote is white we win...any less and we better have a low minority turnout of both dead or alive voters there

42 posted on 09/14/2012 10:47:45 PM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: over3Owithabrain

very good post !

43 posted on 09/14/2012 11:04:43 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: 1035rep; MNJohnnie
CNN/ORC poll
50.4 percent Democrats and
45.4 percent Republicans
4.2 percent independents.

I find it unfortunate that too many posters on Free Republic are so quick to look for Democrat poll oversampling that such a sloppy analysis of the CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A) by the Examiner is taken as gospel. Only 4.2% "Independents" in the CNN/ORC Likely Voter sample, really? The published data supports no such conclusion.

                              Demo-      Indep-     Repub-
                    Total     crat       endent     lican     
----- ----- ------ ------   --------    --------   --------
Obama,Biden, lean    52%       97%         40%         2%
Romney,Ryan, lean    46%        3%         54%        96%
Other                 *         *           *          *
Neither               2%        *           4%         2%
No opinion            1%        *           2%         *
Sampling Error    +/-3.5    +/-6.0      +/-6.5     +/-6.5 

The CNN/ORC question 1/1A table reproduced above has an unstated 95% confidence level (most poll do) for the (n~709) sample size of Likely Voters. The CNN/ORC table for the Total Likely Voter response has the margin of error (or confidence interval) of (+/- 3.5). This published sampling error for the Likely Voters is a rounded number as with the sample size of (n=709) the MoE is actually (+/- 3.68). Now that it is known that the CNN/ORC published MoE numbers are rounded, check the Democrat (+/- 6.0) sub-sampling error, this should be a sample size of 267. The Republican and Independent sub-sample error number of (+/-6.5) would both be derived from a sample size of 227. Since these published sample error number are rounded, they only indicate a range of sample sizes, depending on what the amount of rounding that was performed by CNN/ORC. The published sampling error number alone show that the sample contained more Democrats than either Republicans or Independents.

Rounded MoE       (+/- 6.0)
Rounded range   6.24  - 5.75
Sample # range   247  -  290

Rounded MoE       (+/- 6.5)
Rounded range   6.88  - 6.25
Sample # range   203  -  246

Given the above Likely Voter sample data the following analysis follows:

Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:

The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:

Demographics Republican Democrat Independent Poll Numbers
Romney 96% 3% 54% Romney 46%
Obama 2% 97% 40% Obama 52%
Neither/Other 2% 0% 4% Neither/Other 2%
No Opinion: 1% 0% 2% No Opinion: 1%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%

CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A).

The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709

Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.

Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers     Adjusted Numbers
Romney 96.17% 2.51% 53.52% Romney 45.84% Romney   50.60%
Obama 1.61% 97.36% 40.47% Obama 51.53% Obama   46.78%
Neither/Other 1.61% 0.13% 3.95% Not Sure 1.79% Neither/Other   1.79%
No Opinion: 0.61% 0.00% 2.06% Do not know: 0.84% No Opinion:   0.83%
  100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%     100.0%
        Results       New Weighting
Poll Information     Republican 28.65% Republican     35.00%
CNN     Democrat 39.01% Democrat     35.00%
9/7-9/2012     Independent 32.34% Independent     30.00%
MOE 3.68%                
709 LV       100.0%       100.0%
page #21/48                

Likely Voters 709    
Demographics Republican Democrat Independent
Total Raw Votes 203 277 229
Percentage: 28.65% 39.01% 32.34%

Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [+10.36%] Likely Voter oversampled poll, with Independents comprising around 32.3% of the likely voter sample. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.


44 posted on 09/15/2012 3:10:29 AM PDT by dvwjr
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There have been a lot of good points raised here.

This is responds to a bunch of different posts.

The polls will be more accurate in the last week or so before the election. The pollsters will adjust their voting models so that the ‘result’ will be accurate. This will be spun as dramatic changes which usually don’t occur.

Presidential Elections are about the incumbent. As long as Romney don’t do something stupid, this election will be a referendum on OBAMA. The Obama approval ratings have been in the mid 40’s, his vote total will closely mirror his approval rating.

The dem registration has gone down in the swing states by 800k since 2010, the R registration is down 80k. This doesn’t bode well for the dems in this election.

There is also an enthusiasm gap between R’s and D’s that favors the R’s.

These things point to a turnout model that will IMO be as good or better than 2010. I think people really don’t like Obama.

State Polls tend to be less accurate than national polls, not sure why. However if Romney wins nationally by say %5 in the popular vote there is no way he loses the electoral college.

The campaigns get polls that are far more accurate than anything in the public polls. If you look at the campaigns their behavior tells you a lot about what they are ‘seeing’ in their internal polls.

The Obama campaign is going totally negative, wild charges OTOH Romney is being soft in their critique. IMO this indicates who thinks they are winning and who is desperate.

The media also understands that Obama being behind by double digits with independents means he is toast unless something changes. Note the under sampling of Indies in some polls (along with the under sampling of R’s in almost/all polls), and the lack of mention of Indies in the reporting of these polls.

Do you think that The media would report the results of independents if Obama was UP by double digits???? ;)

dvwjr great job on the CNN poll, like I said if you ‘normalize’ the turnout model the polls are consistent and show Romney with a big lead, that can move to a landslide.

IMO the money advantage for Romney over the last 30 days will lock down these numbers.

45 posted on 09/15/2012 5:50:28 AM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

Excellent post! Thanks!

46 posted on 09/15/2012 6:03:20 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: over3Owithabrain

You are right. I try, and it’s sometimes difficult when the temptation is so great to beg him to double down on his awesome press conference. But regardless you’re right...

47 posted on 09/15/2012 6:20:21 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: Leto

tag for later

48 posted on 09/15/2012 6:21:03 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Leto
IMO this election will not be anything like 2008 in terms of the turnout model.

I agree. The thrill for Obama is gone among some black voters and plenty of college students. The black voters, because that barrier has been broken, and college students, especially recent graduates, because the economy is crap and they haven't been able to find good jobs in their field, or any other, for that matter.

49 posted on 09/15/2012 10:48:49 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: SuziQ
BTW M Flynn at Breitbart does a great job with his poll analysis:

Anyone interested in understanding the polls should check him out on a regular basis.

50 posted on 09/15/2012 12:52:58 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

Thanks for the links. I’ll check them out!

51 posted on 09/15/2012 3:36:01 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: MNJohnnie

ping for later

52 posted on 09/17/2012 2:23:02 PM PDT by Deo et Patria
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