ARG Ohio Poll: 0 48%, R 47% (sample of 42% Dims, 32% GOP)

ARG ^

[Arthurio]

Ohio

Interview dates: September 10-12, 2012

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

Ohio   Obama Romney Other Undecided Likely voters 48% 47% 1% 4%

Democrats (42%) 90% 7% - 3%

Republicans (32%) 2% 95% - 3%

Independents (26%) 37% 53% 5% 5%

Men (49%) 43% 51% 2% 4% Women (51%) 53% 43% 1% 3% 18 to 49 (53%) 50% 44% 1% 5% 50 and older (47%) 46% 51% 2% 2% White (84%) 42% 54% 1% 3% African American (12%) 90% 3% - 7%  

[harpu]

Duhhhh!!!

[Viennacon]

Hahahaah! And the dims in the MSM say this campaign is over and we’ve lost.... yeah... right

[lasereye]

Anybody know what is the breakdown in OH by registered voters?

[chiller]

Last week should/could prove to be fatal for Obie....and not so good for Old Media, either.

[ryan71]

Could it be that all these polls are weighted toward the democrats on accident?

LOL!!!

[joltman1974]

Not sure but in 2008 turnout was +8 D. No chance they exceed that here in 2012. At most will be +2 or 3. If romney is tied in a +10 D model thats awesome news.

[Fester Chugabrew]

Why do the polls always oversample dems?

[God luvs America]

wow- another poll where Romney has double digit advantage from independents...terrific...

[Eccl 10:2]

Ohio Obama Romney Other Undecided Likely voters 48% 47% 1% 4%

Democrats (42%) 90% 7% - 3%

Republicans (32%) 2% 95% - 3%

Independents (26%) 37% 53% 5% 5% $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Besides the way-oversampled Dhim's, I think the money line here is the Independents. Sixteen point spread. Noice !!

[deport]

Are the results shown with ‘weighting factors’ applied or is this just raw data?

[tcrlaf]

2008 turnout model, plus...

I wonder how far Obama is behind in Ohio if they use the 2012 Wisconsin model, instead?

[nhwingut]

Polls are using the 2008 models. Things have moved drastically to Rs since 2008 - hence 2010 blowout.

Here's how Gallup has the states heading into 2012... Notice Ohio at D+ 1.3 (not +10).

[God luvs America]

i know this, in 2008 when they were amped to voted for the POS in the WH there was a spread of about 8% rats over Republicans...

[SamAdams76]

Can't vouch for how accurate this link is, it's Wikipedia after all. However, the chart linked states political party strength in each state and shows Republicans at 37% and Democrats at 36% in the state of Ohio.

So if accurate, this poll oversamples Democrats by 11 percentage points.

[wardaddy]

what were party percentages in 2010 and 2008

I’d say this election will be in between but closer to 2010

even with Brylcreem

[Westbrook]

> Why do the polls always oversample dems?

Well, it’s not really oversampling.

When you count illegals, dead people, imprisoned felons, and those who vote in more than one city and state, there really are more DemonRAT voters than Republicans.

[MrChips]

Well, darn! I was getting it into my head that the only polls I could trust were Rasmussen and ARG. I guess no ARG anymore.

[Berlin_Freeper]

OIHO

[VanDeKoik]

Another poll 10% more Dems survey.

These guys must really not want to get contracts next year.

And Democrat DU’ers trolling FR today, you ought to be the ones “worried” if it takes that many more Dems to get you a ones point advantage.