Posted on 09/15/2012 5:57:24 PM PDT by profit_guy
lets try this scenario. if Romney gets 100% of the White Vote, he wins 70/30. even if Romney gets 60% of the White Vote(which is what is expected) Romney wins hands down!!!
Number of Republicans vs. Democrats Reaches Record High (Rasmussen) Aug ‘12 +4.3%, Nov ‘10 +1.3%, Nov ‘08 -7.6%, Nov ‘04 -1.6%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
Source and link, please.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/156194/Democratic-Voting-Enthusiasm-Down-Sharply-2004-2008.aspx
As long as enthusiasm remains higher or is even with the Dems, the GOP and Romney are in good shape to win.
” On the other hand, I don’t think the twenty-somethings will be out like they did four years ago.”
Good point. However, very doubtful the twenty somethings will fall in line for any new, ship off to war hype, George Bush on steroids, or HillaryRomneyExtortionCare. So break even on that demographic.
Many voters may perceive the so called GOP as hyjacked with a plant.
You are very welcome. But compared to the service of those who really matter mine is pretty small.
Oh dear Lord yes. My itch to punch Bill Clinton in the nose started to flare up again. I so hoped that he would just go away and take care of his health.
The problem with this thinking is that Gallup doesnt do the secret sauce thing like the other polls. It’s a random sample. and if it came up more Dem, that may mean there are more Dems in the universe of voters.
It’s not been skewed to start with. That said, they do RV, not LV polls, and there is a skew from that.
I hope O loses big, but remember in 2008 when the polls were showing McCain down? The polls turned out about right.
Believe it or not, I think Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, certainly, Illinois are are in play for Romney/Ryan!!! Long shots, but....in play!!! Of course, if New York ever tightens, it will be political slaughter for both Obama and the entire Democrat Party, all America haters & traitors. Want to get a great glimpse of the Obama future, go see, “2016: Obama’s America”. If you are not frightened now, you will be, after you view this excellent and truthful movie!!! All Americans should see this flick.
Gallup may be in the tank for Obama now, but Obama will be very disappointed when he wfinds out that just because the mirror on the wall kept telling him he was the grandest of them all didn’t make it so...
I already personally know a half-dozen people who voted for Obama who are voting Romney. I can tell from my college students that the number who turn out will be WAY down, perhaps 35%, maybe more. There is no interest out there at all among da "yuts" to vote. On the other hand, SE OH, where there is a big demand for oil drilling and the pipeline will go heavily for Romney this time.
Ideology is what means something---ideas, issues, and concerns, and there is a substantial shift going on over the last three years that is not registering at all with the elites, or, apparently, still with some on FR. Your purported Dem advantage was not a "DEM" advantage in 08. It was a DEM+INDIE+ (yes) large percent of GOP who voted Obama in. I personally saw the data. I personally talked to a GOP state rep whose FIVE GOP kids voted for Obama!! None will this time around. It's a pretty staggering shift, and combined with the voter purges, it's gonna be fun.
2012 will be better still.
Well, the problem there is that in 08, the polls had McCain UP until the financial meltdown. He was up between two and four!
When you compare results that's how you do it ~ how much did candidate A get, and how much did candidae B get, then divide the difference by the total vote of the losing candidate.
You don't add all the votes up for both Candidate A and Candidate B and divide that into the difference!
Regarding ideology, if it were only that we would have been in a hot war against Democrats and their running dog lackeys some time ago.
Your personal, economic and religious affiliations have a great deal to do with how you end up voting.
Then, the other really big thing controlling how we vote is the fact there are only two major political parties ~ you vote for the Rep or the Dem candidates ~ and you win or lose. Being an independent doesn't increase the number of voting opportunities at all!
Here's the deal here. My kids and their friends were ready to actually go out and campaign this year in Northern Virginia then Romney and his friends screwed with the primary and left them totally uninterested in you people. No, they are certainly not voting for the Democrat Obama but they are highly motivated to not vote for the Republican Obama either.
You lost campaign workers and voters with that trick.
If that hold true, the polls being massaged to 2008 numbers are going to be off 12 pts or so. They are weighting plus five to eight dems consistently poll to poll. Giving Obama a lead of 1 to 6. Romney might be up 6-10. That would explain the msm freakout.
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