New Michigan Pol: 0 46%, R 44%

RCP ^

[Arthurio]

State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of

electorate) – 1156 Respondents MOE +/- 2.88%

Question 1: The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??

(President Barack Obama): 45.49%

(Governor Mitt Romney): 43.65%

(Another candidate): 5.48%

(Undecided): 5.38%

[sargon]

If Michigan is competitive for Romney, 0bama is toast...

[Proud2BeRight]

Trivial but it is interesting that they round 45.49 up to 46.

[Balding_Eagle]

I notice they didn’t even ask if the person being polled was a registered voter, let alone ‘likely to vote this fall’.

[Kenny]

Just think if Romney and Ryan actually got passionate on the campaign trail. As is, not much fire in the belly.

Maybe they should ask Sarah to campaign with them.

Or Donald Trump, he could have a whiteboard with all Obama’s failures and yell “You’re fired!”

Gotta get the base pumped up, guys.

[NYRepublican72]

I notice they didn’t even ask if the person being polled was a registered voter, let alone ‘likely to vote this fall’.

If this is an adults poll, Obama is REALLY toast. In either event, if Obama is only up 2 in Michigan, it's advantage Romney right now.

Michigan is probably a tier 2 state in any election strategy.

[Sooth2222]

If 2/3 of the "undecided" and "another candidate" voters (Johnson is not going to poll that high in a competitive state) break for Romney, he wins Michigan with 50.89%.

[barmag25]

question 13:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican
or a Tea Party member?
(IF DEM) Do you consider yourself a solid Democrat or leaning Democrat?
(IF REP) Do you consider yourself a solid Republican, leaning Republican or a Tea
Party Republican?

1. (Solid Democrat): 28.74%
2. (Leaning Democrat): 13.25%
Total Democrats 41.99%
3. (Independent): 24.94%
4. (Solid Republican): 19.05%
5. (Leaning Republican): 8.74%
6. (Tea Party Republican): 5.28%
Total Republicans 33.07%

[Proud2BeRight]

Overwhelmingly women +16% and Democrats +9% sampled.

And notice how the left names the leftist ballot proposals. That is slimy; Clean Energy initiative, Protect Our Jobs, The Michigan Alliance for Prosperity. Why not call them all; Mom and Hot Apple Pie,

[BlueStateRightist]

If MI is close why aren’t R/R killing in OH?

[luvbach1]

If that poll is valid the undecided should give it to R.

[NoobRep]

Wow. Was this one of the states that Romney considered “in-play” as in going to spend money here?

[JLS]

Certainly this is an encouraging poll. Winning Michigan would compensate for the loss of Virginia or Ohio.

Given the oversampling, it is very encouraging. One reason Romney might be doing better in Michigan than Ohio is family history. It is of course odd that Obama is not down big in coal states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

[SamAdams76]

Interesting as nearly 11% of the vote is not accounted for.

For example, that 5.48% listed as "prefer another candidate?" Who? Many of us prefer another candidate but the only choices are Romney and Obama. On November 6, those people are going to have to choose between the two of them. These voters have apparently already decided not to support the incumbent so they are Romney's to win.

Another 5.38% are undecided. Again, these are mostly Romney's votes. Historically, undecideds break for the challenger at least 2-1 margin. In this election, I'm thinking it will be more like a 4-1 or 5-1 margin due to the piss-poor performance of the incumbent. If you aren't already in Obama's camp (and either collecting food stamps or living off daddy's trust fund), then you will never be.

The vast majority of this 11% will go to Romney. If this poll is accurate, Obama is going to lose Michigan.

[barmag25]

I think R/R will win Ohio, Virginia, and Penn.

[Gay State Conservative]

Romney being close in MI doesn’t bode well for Osama nationwide...unless,perhaps,there's some degree of “favorite son” situation involved.

[JLS]

I tend to think you are right. I am pretty confident about Virginia and Ohio. I am least confident about Pennsylvania.

[barmag25]

I just think that because How much oversampling is being done in these states. The dems always tell us what they are afraid of. Losing these states are what they are afraid of.

I think poll manipulation is their last hope. Suppress votes for R/R by making the voters feel like its a lost cause and Obama has already won.

I have a lot of relatives in Ohio. My brother told me that nobody he works with is voting for Obama this time. And he said this from asking around at an IBEW union meeting.

He works as a boiler operator in a coal fired power plant. Those guys are siding with R/R and the coal miners.

[stormhill]

They didn't specify likely voters. In addition, if you consider the gross oversampling of Obama's base and the well known phenom of the "Shy Republican," Obama could be in serious trouble.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Romney doesnt have a chance in heck of winning Penn.