Posted on 09/16/2012 10:50:15 AM PDT by Arthurio
Same here. My Dad lives in SE Ohio, and he doesn't know ANYONE who supports 0. He was a big union guy, and knows a lot of other union guys who will NOT vote 0 this time. Most of his surviving family lives there, and none of them are voting 0 this time - his brothers are all big union guys, too.
All of these people supported 0 last time, except Dad who always votes for whomever the NRA endorses. :)
Are you sure about Cincy? I don't think it has fallen yet. 2008 was an outlier - southern Ohio Repubs voted 0 that year in large numbers. It won't happen this time.
I think the only lib strongholds in OH are Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo. Otherwise, all conservative. Now, I am just going by what I remember. I left Dayton in 1996 and knew 2 Democrat voters (both stoners).
Was this one poll or an average of polls?
I've seen outlier polls have that Romney within 5 in NJ and I'd like to see a reliable poll for MA. I think that due to the Scott Brown senate race and the hometown factor for Romney, Massachusetts is going to be much closer for Romney than people would think.
The voter turnout in 2008 was D+7 and the polls we are seeing are weighted that way. Fact is, the 2012 turnout is going to be more like R+2 (based on 2010) and that is a 9 point swing towards Romney that is not being reflected in these bogus polls.
Hugh Hewitt had an excellent interview with the Marist pollster, which answers a lot of allegations about bias: http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f36ec71e977 (Note, he implies ARG+Ras don’t use cell phones. ARG uses cell phones, Ras uses a selectively tailored online focus group to make up for cell phones.)
I don’t see any reason for this guy to intentionally lie + fudge his Marist polls. I think that for whatever reason, pollsters are really calling and getting ridiculous D+10 unweighted samples in the battlegrounds.
However, in 2008, the huge D weightings were precedented by a large number of “red flags” supporting their veracity. Massively increased D registration, massive D enthusiasm, large numbers of Republicans crossing over to vote for Obama. None of these signs are present this year.
IMO, it’s at least partially voter fatigue from getting 10 calls from O+R campaigns a day, that prevents Republicans from being reached in battlegrounds.
I’ve heard the same anecdotal stories out of MA as well. Perhaps it’s best that nobody seriously polls MA lest that the media try and make a demoralizing campaign out of it.
That is a great question.
Polling variances is a part of the equation.
We aren’t going to lose Ohio or Vir.
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