(Rasmussen)Electoral College Obama: 247 - Romney: 196 - Toss-up: 95

Rasmussen ^ | 17 Sep 12 | Rasmussen

[wiggen]

You’re pretty pessimistic. Romney is sitting on a pile of cash. He’s not taking it home with him. He’s obviously letting zero spend now and he’ll blitz the airwaves later.

[TMA62]

I think that NM, ME, and MN are in play. Romney is active in NM. If the ME can vote for the two RINO broads, they can still vote Romney. MN is interesting, they do vote for repub governors. I think they will follow WI and vote Romney.

[DoctorBulldog]

Rasmussen is wrong about Missouri. Missouri is NOT a toss-up! There is no way on God’s green earth that Obama is going to carry Missouri!

I’m here in Missouri, down in the trenches, day in, day out. Obama is TOAST!!!

Just lettin’ ya’ all know

Cheers!

[nathanbedford]

Rasmussen identifies seven tossup states constituting 95 electoral votes of which Romney must take 64 to get the 270 electoral college votes.

This is a daunting task. Even though I think we can safely move Missouri into the leaning Romney column, Romney must still secure 54 votes to get to the magic number. The key state is and always has been Ohio but Ohio is simply too close to call. Therefore it a grave risk. Similarly Florida is indispensable but it has stubbornly seesawed back and forth so it constitutes a real risk. The loss of either Florida or Ohio are potentially fatal. Likewise, Virginia has behaved the same way.

There is good news in Wisconsin which I think will ultimately vote for Romney considering its recent history and the favorite son status of Paul Ryan. It represents a crossover state which is not been traditionally Republican. It potentially could compensate for the loss of one of the other swing states which Romney must have.

Romney absolutely positively must secure Florida and Virginia. The loss of any one of these states puts Romney in a very tenuous position. Therefore, I believe he should open the field by invading the "leads Obama states," Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, which total 46 electoral votes. This is not just a geographical excursion but a real possibility of breaking the election wide open or, failing that, it presents the possibility that a state like Pennsylvania with its 20 electoral votes could compensate for the loss of Virginia or Florida (29).

Just because the race up until now has remained relatively static does not mean that the race cannot break. It certainly is more more likely to break, if it is to break, in Romney's favor rather than in Obama's favor. Romney has the money to run a strong air war in Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and he should do so. He has a good argument to make in Pennsylvania if he emphasizes Obama's disastrous energy policy.

In Nevada he can hit unemployment hard and hit Obama on his remarks about not spending money in Las Vegas but he must finesse the Hispanic vote. Michigan provides an opportunity for Romney as a kind of favorite son but it also presents obstacles because of the auto bailout. Ohio presents much the same problem.

The object of this is not just to attenuate Obama's more limited resources but to get lucky. The events in the Middle East demonstrate how volatile this election could become. It is entirely within reasonable possibility that one or more of these states could slip into the Romney column if the news breaks the right way or if Romney can finally find his voice.

All of this is pure speculation in the absence of polling data. It is possible the Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon could come into play and I say that because I see Romney's campaign as struggling to overcome friction. That is, Romney is on the right side of all the issues and all the data especially the economic data and now the news out of the Mideast yet he has been unable to capitalize on a state of affairs that normally would put a challenger ahead.

Obama has been able to hold Romney back with a negative campaign, a clever convention, and a complicit media but the damn is liable to break anywhere and when it does it will come as a flood. For example, the price of gasoline will probably spike, given the situation with Iran and in the Middle East. If Romney cannot capitalize on the present price of gas he should have lost to Newt Gingrich who clearly could have done so.

I believe there will be an event or simply a tectonic shift which will cause the electorate to move markedly in Romney's direction. This is purely a visceral belief, hopefully more than a hope, but certainly not anything justified by recent history or polling data.

[justlurking]

NH Leans Obama now? What happened to “Live Free or Die”?

Liberals fleeing Massachusetts, who are too brain-dead to realize the reason they had to leave MA was their own voting record.

[xzins]

Let’s pretend that Obama does not have access to cash from liberal billionaires, dictators in Cuba and Venezuela, and kings and sheiks in OPEC.

Let’s also pretend he doesn’t have the MSM totally in his corner.

I’m not being pessimistic. Just practical.

[aheckle]

Romney was also up in the Rasmussen swing state poll

[ScottinVA]

NH Leans Obama now? What happened to “Live Free or Die”?

Oh, you haven't heard. It's been changed to "Live for Freebies or Die."

[StAnDeliver]

"I read Rasmussen’s numbers the same way. Ras has Obama up 2 points in Florida and 1 point in Ohio on his map. That means if held today the fat lady would be singing."

If the election were held today, Romney would win Ohio and we would be back to counting chads in Florida.

Or not, because he can win without Florida: 2008 + IN, NC, VA, OH, NE1, NH, NV, CO, WI, IA = 272EV

Key: R - D - U - O / Incumbent Rule / R - D - O

OH: 46 - 47 - 3 - 3 / 2.4% break R / 48.4 - 47.6 - 3

FL: 46 - 48 - 3 - 3 / 2.4% break R / 48.4 - 48.6 - 3

[MrDem]

Romney is sitting on a pile of cash. He’s not taking it home with him.

I think Romney and team understand that the American public have an attention span of milliseconds and it is a waste to spend tons of money too early. I'm sure they are keeping it close and will turn it on in the stretch when it counts. We just had the Olympics and saw this time and time again.

[Ingtar]

Do we know that Romney is not “taking it home with him”? It seems that collecting all this money could be a great return on investment. (I am kidding here if you cannot tell.)

[xzins]

Good analysis. Thanks.

Losing Florida is losing the election. Romney must defend Florida if he wants to win.

Ohio, like you say could be replaced with Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, but Romney is much closer in Ohio than in those others. IOW, he gets more bang for the buck by spending in Ohio.

He hasn’t been blanketing the airwaves here, so I imagine he’s spending elsewhere or he’s still hoarding his money. I think it’s hoarding, and I think he’s going with a “hail mary strategy” and unleashing everything he’s got the last one or 2 weeks.

JMHO.

(And, of course, we haven’t discussed the so-called debates. They could be gamechangers if either candidate stumbles badly and obviously.)

[ScottinVA]

Too bad about MI and PA... had some fleeting hopes for those two states, but at the dems’ feet they seem to be in what they feel is a happy place.

Whether we like to believe polls or not, Romney has a steep hill to climb. Whatever chance we have of defeating Obama rests in the level of anti-Obama enthusiasm. It’s going to take a massive turnout to get Romney over the top on Nov. 6. If the frighteningly ugly spectre of Obamination II isn’t enough to spur conservatives and other patriots to get to the voting precincts, I don’t know what is.

[who knows what evil?]

...and I also know there are lots of p*ssed Republican voters when that new legislature put repeal of sodomite ‘marriage’ on the back burner after promising repeal while running for office. Will there be blow back? Got me. I won’t be around.

[Mr. Silverback]

Hey now, Kent may be a wet blanket in election threads, he may be the sort of guy who sends an audition video to RuPaul’s drag race every season, he may even be cited in the Guiness book as singing the worst karaoke version of “Damn I Wish I Was Your Lover” ever performed, but he is NOT an Obama sycophant!

[xzins]

If you’re interested in how undecideds vote, then go to this old FR thread and then go to like for the full article

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2879506/posts

[ScottinVA]

Losing Florida is losing the election. Romney must defend Florida if he wants to win.

Exactly. The minute Florida is called for Obama is game/set/match. While mathematically there are some far-fetched workarounds to losing Virginia or Ohio, there is no chance Romney wins without Florida. He'll be giving his concession speech before polls close in Colorado. And I wouldn't bank on Pennsylvania or Michigan. At this point, they're settling into their familiar, comfortable place on the floor of the democrat plantation.

[Mr. Silverback]

No, Kent is no troll, he’s no Obama supporter. He just hates Mittens because Mittens isn’t a conservative, and he’s sure we’re going to lose for that reason. That’s all.

I, meanwhile, think we’re going to win this thing. But I’m not going to bitch and argue about it.

[Mr. Silverback]

No, Kent is no troll, he’s no Obama supporter. He just hates Mittens because Mittens isn’t a conservative, and he’s sure we’re going to lose for that reason. That’s all.

I, meanwhile, think we’re going to win this thing. But I’m not going to bitch and argue about it.

[GeorgeWashingtonsGhost]

Americans are stupid. We’re paying for a few generations of union-controlled teachers who intentionally produce dumbed-down students who, DUE TO THEIR IGNORANCE OF HOW AMERICA IS SUPPOSED TO BE, will vote Democrat. Our educational system isn’t about education. It’s about producing DEMOCRAT VOTERS at the expense of tax payers.