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Can You Top This? CBS/NYT Poll Weights Registered Voters Dems 35%, Republicans 22%
NewsBusters.org ^ | September 17, 2012 | Tom Blumer

Posted on 09/17/2012 6:50:01 PM PDT by Kaslin

In a campaign season which is on track to go down as the worst ever for cooked polling, one from CBS News and the New York Times has outdone everyone to this point.

Clearly, they didn't like what a properly weighted result would have told them, which is that Mitt Romney is in a deadlock with Barack Obama if one uses Gallup's party affiliation numbers from before Democratic National Convention, or that he's up by five points if one opts for Rasmussen's affiliation numbers. In their latest poll, with registered voters, CBS/NYT not only oversampled Democrats, but they took the number of actual responses and further weighted them towards Dems, as seen after the jump.


Here is the CBS/NYT weighting exercise (found at the very end of the poll in the Scribd document; HT Mike Flynn at Breitbart):

So an 8-point margin among people they actually spoke with wasn't enough. So they weighted it further. There is no support for this action.

Taking the the three key results before weighting from the poll -- namely the Dem margin for Obama, the GOP margin for Romney, and Romney's margin among independents (these margins are among likely and not registered voters, but the margins among RVs were as far as I could tell not disclosed) -- one can see the results I teased earlier based on Rasmussen's party affiliation findings in August and Gallup's from before the Democratic National Convention:

The CBS/NYT poll says that Obama is ahead by eight points with registered voters and by three points among likely voters. Sure, guys. You're not fooling us.

Flynn's wrap: "The polls confirm that the media aren't really biased. Rather, they are active players for the other team." Dishonestly active.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 09/17/2012 6:50:07 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Just proof that these polls are pure DNC propaganda BS. May Almighty God curse their tactics and bring profound misfortune upon them.


2 posted on 09/17/2012 6:55:51 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: LS; Steelfish; TonyInOhio; Jet Jaguar; SoFloFreeper; GOPJ; HamiltonJay; randita; DarthVader; ...

ping


3 posted on 09/17/2012 6:56:28 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Kaslin

My wife and I plan on contributing to the Republican tidal wave!


4 posted on 09/17/2012 6:57:27 PM PDT by MtnClimber (I did not vote for Zero. Someone else did that.)
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To: Kaslin

Excellent info, Kaslin. Thanks.


5 posted on 09/17/2012 6:58:00 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Kaslin

There is a reason they are doing this. If Romney wins, they can immediately charge that the election was rigged because all the polls showed His Highness clobbering Romney.


6 posted on 09/17/2012 7:03:18 PM PDT by chessplayer
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To: Kaslin

They have to cheat. They always have to cheat.


7 posted on 09/17/2012 7:03:35 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Kaslin

In New York, that weight to Democrat voters is probably correct.


8 posted on 09/17/2012 7:04:01 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY!)
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To: Kaslin

In New York, that weight to Democrat voters is probably correct.


9 posted on 09/17/2012 7:04:08 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY!)
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To: Kaslin

Yep here it is!!!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends


10 posted on 09/17/2012 7:05:42 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: DarthVader

Yes! And may a weird holy man squat on their froot loops.


11 posted on 09/17/2012 7:06:15 PM PDT by stormhill
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To: chessplayer

Actually I believe leftists are doing this so that they can blame the Voter ID law for Obama losing, that way they can riot. I say let the scum riot. I think Romney has already won this election, that is why the Dems are making these bogus polls, because they know their dear leader is finished.


12 posted on 09/17/2012 7:07:02 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Kaslin

Romney up by 11 with independents in this poll. That’s the only take away and it’s good for us.


13 posted on 09/17/2012 7:12:02 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: Kaslin

The state controlled “media” is working so hard at getting their Child of the Earth reelected that their polls have become nothing but another goofy ‘RAT joke. ALL OF THEM!


14 posted on 09/17/2012 7:13:19 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The United States of America apologizing to knuckledragging, cavedwelling Neandethals. Whodda thunk!)
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To: Kaslin

I don’t think many who had planned to vote for Romney will stay home or vote for the anointed one on the basis of crooked polls. I doubt it will sway many of the undecideds either.


15 posted on 09/17/2012 7:19:47 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Kaslin

Skewed public opinion polls are the modern equivalent of the political cartoon.


16 posted on 09/17/2012 7:28:28 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: chessplayer
There is a reason they are doing this. If Romney wins, they can immediately charge that the election was rigged because all the polls showed His Highness clobbering Romney.

Just like in 2004 when Liberals insisted that there had to be Republican cheating because all of the exit polls showed Lurch winning.

17 posted on 09/17/2012 7:35:25 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

exactly. thewy want to be able to claim that we cheated. let them claim whatever they want. Let them riot about it too. Let them come looting and pillaging on my property.


18 posted on 09/17/2012 7:45:24 PM PDT by RC one
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To: Repeal 16-17
[Just like in 2004 when Liberals insisted that there had to be Republican cheating because all of the exit polls showed Lurch winning.]

The guy who owned the exit poll firm was a former CBS executive. One problem was that his workers were college students, street people, aged hippies, illegal aliens, winos, etc. The exit poll results—which favored Kerry—were supposed to be embargoed until the voting closed. But some gay restaurant critic at the New York Times got ahold of the numbers and starting leaking them to liberal talk radio stations. This may have cost Bush a point or two.

19 posted on 09/17/2012 7:52:17 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: Brad from Tennessee

On Sat I did an analysis of the CBS/NYT poll

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2931353/posts

If you use a turnout model that matches 2010 the results are

Romney 48.6%, Obama 46.7, Undecided 3.6% if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger (IIRC the break is usually 4/1) the results are: Romney 51.2%, Obama 47.5&

Using the latest Ras number for party affiliation (+4.3% R) you get a number of

Romney 50.4%, Obama 44.9%, Undecideds 3.5%, splitting the undecideds the same ration (3/1) we get : Romney 53.1%, Obama 45.8%.

The turnout model determines the poll result.

A very good site that ‘balances the various Obamedia polls (not my site BTW).

http://polls2012.blogspot.com/


20 posted on 09/17/2012 8:13:44 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

BTW Flynn is excellent and of course note the Romney lead with independents of +11, anybody think Obama can win if Romney wins by double digits among independents?


21 posted on 09/17/2012 8:16:31 PM PDT by Leto
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To: DarthVader

Their audience is going to be in for a shocker on the evening of Nov. 6th...


22 posted on 09/17/2012 8:25:48 PM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Kaslin

Well, what would you expect?

That’ how the Democrats are going to weight the results when they count votes on election night.


23 posted on 09/17/2012 9:11:26 PM PDT by rdcbn
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To: Leto

Nice work. Thanks for the link.

This is the final poll results before 2004 election:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html


24 posted on 09/17/2012 9:11:36 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: Perdogg

Bump


25 posted on 09/17/2012 9:16:36 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 election.)
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To: Kaslin

A lot of voter fraud sauce in that poll. They might be right.


26 posted on 09/17/2012 9:32:20 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: Kaslin
They are trying to create a context in which their fraudulent numbers will appear reasonable.
27 posted on 09/17/2012 10:36:47 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The Slave Party Switcheroo: Economic crisis! Zero's eligibility Trumped!! Hillary 2012!!!)
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To: chessplayer

BOOM! I’ve said for a month that the media knows that Zero is going to lose big, and they are already working to delegitimize the Romney presidency.


28 posted on 09/18/2012 3:52:13 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Brad from Tennessee

Great comparison: we can call them the “yellow pollsters.”


29 posted on 09/18/2012 3:54:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Leto

That is almost exactly what I predicted (4% ) yielding 320 EVs. The libs are gonna be p!$$&d!


30 posted on 09/18/2012 4:00:45 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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