Posted on 09/18/2012 10:11:27 AM PDT by Arthurio
Gallup: 0 47%, R 46% (Among Registered Voters)
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
I see that F. Chuck Todd is already teasing the NBC/WSJ poll due out later today - it will, no doubt, show Barry with a growing lead.
Was he smirking and seemed real excited about the poll? If so, that ought to tell you.
They’ve been throwing everything at him and the kitchen sink. Yet good numbers for Romney in this poll.
Can Romney win over the cheating on top of the moron votes for Obama? Are there enough intelligent patriots left in this country to overcome this attack of the commie far left?
Can you post a link, or paste a screen shot of the oversample please?
have you notice how the MSM is starting to withold the sampling stats?
For all those depressed dems that don’t go to vote for POTUS they also won’t be voting down ticket as well.
I have the Rasmussen sampling info, but do not know how to find Gallup, do you?
I did not post anything about there being an over sample - that was added to the headline after I posted this. I have no idea what the party breakdown is in this poll.
The Trend is Your Friend!
Date Range 0’bummer Mittster
08/30-09/5/2012 47 46
08/31-09/6/2012 48 45
09/1-7/2012 49 45
09/2-8/2012 49 44
09/3-9/2012 49 44
09/4-10/2012 50 44
09/5-11/2012 50 43
09/6-12/2012 50 44
09/7-13/2012 49 44
09/8-14/2012 49 45
09/9-15/2012 48 45
09/10-16/2012 48 45
09/11-17/2012 47 46
“based on five-day rolling averages”
Which means the trend above will continue another day or two until it at least bottoms out.
Plus, it’s Registered, not Likely.
What is the oversample? I can’t find it.
Combine all those factors, and I could posit Romney up by 5 according to frickin’ Gallup!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C__xOdPPZFo
First, Romney misspoke. It’s 46 percent. Not 47. Same thing for our side. In the absence of a landslide or a significant third party candidate, politics is played between the 46 yard lines, not between the 47 yard lines.
This means, and here I agree with Mitt, we don’t even try to appeal to the 46 or 47 percent on their side. We appeal to the persuadable 6 to 8 percent in the middle, and we get out our vote.
Having said these things, I’ve been thinking that this could like 1980, with a weak economy that turns south as we approach the election and with an international crisis like the Iranian hostage situation. So, a ten point win is a possibility.
Now, about Gallup ...
It is very curious that Gallup has such an over-sample of Democrats. This is not replicated in other polls.
Raz, who always deals with Likely voters, is showing a surge for Republicans (relative to 2008, and during this past year).
The media polls - NYT/CBS, WP/ABC, etc. - I’ve been aggregating their internals, and they show a trend this year toward the Republicans in party affiliation. Admittedly, at a level that challenges credulity given the economy and other factors.
So, what’s up with the Gallup Poll?
I just heard Rush saying that recent samplings show that Reps should be sampled at 4% higher than dems, and these polls are regularly sampled at D+5 to D+10.
I heard this on Hannity last night and was shocked
If you’re in one of these states, and if you are in the 46 percent of our party, please vote and bring a friend. Let’s bank the vote.
BTW I agree with you. I like my state’s policies. You have to registered by a date prior to the election. You can vote absentee only with cause, and only during a period close to the election. And, you need a state-issued photo i.d.
So the 5 million dollar question is.....how much did they over sample dims by in this poll?
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