Posted on 09/18/2012 6:05:31 PM PDT by Arthurio
New Hampshire Poll: 0 48%, R 47% (LV)
0 48%, R 46% (RV)
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
I’m getting so sick of these liberals pushing some poll from Ohio or Virginia that has Obama up and gloating with a gleam in their eye that the election is more or less over because Romney HAS to win Ohio and Virginia. I would laugh my arse of if on election day Obama won Virginia and Ohio...but lost New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan and every other swing state, just to see the liberals sputtering on election night saying...”But, but, but all the experts said a Republican can’t win without Ohio and Virginia!”
Virginia is different for 2 reasons: a large black population and a relatively good economy (ironically due to a defense industry based economy that Obama is gutting after the election). Romney will win Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio before he wins Virginia.
As long as he wins Florida, it is plausible. Florida is the one must win.
Good point, but I also think Romney will win Virginia before he wins New Hampshire.
According to the 2008 exit poll, Democrats in NH enjoyed a 2 point advantage relative to the Republicans.
This ARG poll has a 2 point advantage for the Democrats.
In 2010, Republicans jumped to a plus 3 advantage in NH, according to that year’s exit poll. A shift like that is evident in Rasmussen’s tracking of party affiliation nationwide over the past few years.
Therefore, it’s reasonable to suspect that Republicans are at least even with Democrats in the Granite state, and that Romney is actually ahead of Obama at this point.
According to the 2008 exit poll, Democrats in NH enjoyed a 2 point advantage relative to the Republicans.
This ARG poll has a 2 point advantage for the Democrats.
In 2010, Republicans jumped to a plus 3 advantage in NH, according to that year’s exit poll. A shift like that is evident in Rasmussen’s tracking of party affiliation nationwide over the past few years.
Therefore, it’s reasonable to suspect that Republicans are at least even with Democrats in the Granite state, and that Romney is actually ahead of Obama at this point.
Why doesn’t rcp use arg in any of their polls listed as latest polls.
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NE1, NH = 270EV
So then Mittens would only have to win the Big 3.
IN, NC, NE1 are already in his pocket.
7% of repubs voting for obama. If true, we need them to come home. However my guess is they are dems pretending to be repubs. Lots of chicanery.
Maybe? YES there is and don’t bank on HOPE!
We gloat when Romney is up so why wouldn’t the liberals gloat when Obama is up. Sometime I wonder about people on here. 50 percent of the United States is going to vote for Obama and 50 percent are going to vote for Romney. A small variation to those percentages but our country seems very split. Of course we keep picking crappy candidates so this is not a surprise.
As someone who spends a lot of time in the Old Dominion, I believe the state is starting to break for Romney, for a couple of reasons.
First, the defense sector, which is critically important for Hampton Roads and northern Virginia, is bracing for sequestration, which will immediately put 200,000 Virginians out of work, including many at the state’s largest employer, Newport News Shipbuilding. Predictably, The Zero has shown no leadership on sequestration and truth be told, he’d be happy to double his defense cuts, which is what sequestration will do.
With layoff notices possibly going out before election day, look for a huge turnout in places like Suffolk, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach and the York County/Williamsburg area, where many military retirees and defense contractors reside. That will be enough to offset the minority vote in places like Norfolk, Portsmouth and Hampton, especially when you look at the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters.
Same for northern VA. Yeah, there are lots of federal employees in those suburbs, but there are thousands of defense contractors as well. If Obama can’t roll up the big pluralities in those areas like he did in ‘08, he can’t win Virginia. It’s that simple.
One more thing: his stance on coal will generate a record turnout in southwestern Virginia as well. That should be enough to put Romney over the top, and return George Allen to the Senate.
I hang up when they call.
When the RNC calls, what I say is unprintable.
WI-10
IA-6
OH-18
(34)
VA-13
(13)
Compared to 2008 results, in that mini-scenario Mitt comes out 21 EVs ahead...I’ll take that.
But would much prefer all four.
IN, NC, NE1 are already in his pocket.
Two things:
1. Will Romney have coat tails to help the Senate races?
2. As to NE1, Obama will not win that EV (or any EV in NE). Obama won it in 2008 by a mere 2000 votes. Kerrey is running a terrible campaign in Nebraska while Fischer’s ground game is awesome. GOP base is enthused.
It is interesting to see that New Hampshire and Vermont, both of which used to be solidly conservative, have been overrun with displaced persons from New York And Massachusetts who brought their liberal and left wing baggage with them. If life was so wonderful in the Democratic utopias, why did they have to pull up stakes and leave? How can repeating the same voting patterns and social welfare schemes do anything other than wreck their new homes? Where will they migrate to next? Quebec?
I hope you are right.
You have something against Quebec?
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