Posted on 09/18/2012 6:54:22 PM PDT by blam
FedEx CEO: I'm Amused Watching Observers 'Completely Underestimate' What The Export Slowdown Is Doing To China
Joe Weisenthal
Sep. 18, 2012, 4:51 PM
Earlier today, FedEx reported weak guidance on slowing global growth. Its stock ended down about 3%, and the transport stocks were generally big laggards.
Because FedEx is considered to be such a bellweather for economic activity, its earnings are closely watched by a broad range of folks, not just FedEx investors.
In that light, the comments by CEO Fred Smith on the company's call are fascinating (via Cullen Roche).
First is his comment about the global economic situation: global trade is in a very rare position of growing slower than GDP:
...fundamentally, what's happening is that exports around the world have contracted, and the policy choices in Europe and the United States and China are having an effect on global trade. Global trade has grown faster than GDP, except for the 2000, 2001 meltdown and 2008 and 2009, for 25 years. And over the last few months, that has not been the case. So that's what's really going on, is that exports and trade have gone down at a faster rate than GDP has.
Smith also takes a shot at the Fed:
Well, let me elaborate on what I said just a moment ago. I mean, systemically, the policy choices that have been made in Europe and the United States and China are having effect on world trade. The episodial product launches that you refer to, we've been talking about for 2 years. And we are carrying a huge amount of that traffic, but it is episodial.
(snip)
I’ve been somewhat amused watching some of the China observers, I think, completely underestimate the effects of the slower exports on the overall China economy.”
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
What do rulers so when their policies are wrecking a country? Start a fight with your neighbors.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2931758/posts
I have felt all along that Europe’s problems weren’t going to be the direct cause of our descent into the second, and more severe, leg of the global depression. It would be that monstrous illusion of prosperity built on a foundation of societal instability, corruption, and fraud — China.
Thanks blam, g’night all!
FedEx has some of the best analysts on staff, I know from professional experience. Their ability to recognize trends and act on them to the positive is second to none. His words ring solid to me.
They are huge in China, and there is no mistaking demand (or lack thereof) for international shipping.
Shippers can tell you more about the economy than any expert
He's been predicting a severe slowdown in their economy, as well as a power struggle, with the military stepping up to fill the vacuum.
They're one giant superhighway pile up in the fog waiting to happen. And they own our debt...yeah...
Reign of Terror?
One does not have to go that far back. The words of Anita Dunn will echo Mao Tse Tung.
“The current great socialist cultural revolution is a great revolution to sweep away all monsters and a great revolution that remoulds the ideology of people and touches their souls. What weapon should be used to sweep away all monsters? What ideology should be applied to arm people’s minds and remould their souls? The most powerful ideological weapon, the only one, is the great Mao Tse-tung’s thought.”
The real scary part is that Communist China is the #1 Agricultural producer in the world...and now way outproduces the USA. In fact, a lot of the American ag products are exported out, and we get a lot of imported from Communist China
If China goes broke....there will be a lot of people starving...worldwide....if China cannot afford to keep up its ag output
No news there, and the "Chinese Miracle" can accurately be labeled "Made in the USA" and "Made in the EU" and "Made in Japan" as Chinese "exports" have mostly been made up of thousands of manufacturing firms from the industrialized nations that were moved to China to take advantage of cheap labor, and then to export the products back to the industrialized nation's consumer markets.
Of course Chinese exports fall as the economies of the US, the EU and Japan slow down.
Anecdotal evidence. Have worked for a regional LTL freight carrier for 33 years. Our tonnage levels always predate the national facts and figures by 2-3 months.
We are presently at very low levels,...so much so that personnel decisions(extreme) are looming.
Well put. Some of Mao Tse Tung’s thought reached more of us in the West than it did in China (sought to end monogamy, as did Lenin).
bfl
I would not call that anecdotal. You can tell more from logistics about the economy than any formula used by an Ivy League talking head.
There was a late night article posted several weeks ago regarding how many cargo ships had been mothballed and how carriers were not anticipating bringing them back online any time soon. There were similar stories a few years ago about a “ghost fleet” off the coast of China, but this one indicated further cuts in shipping. I have searched for it and can’t find it and as usual for a “late night thread” it only got a few responses and disappeared.
A man in China is usually subjected to the domination of three systems of authority [political authority, clan authority and religious authority].... As for women, in addition to being dominated by these three systems of authority, they are also dominated by the men (the authority of the husband). These four authorities - political, clan, religious and masculine - are the embodiment of the whole feudal-patriarchal ideology and system, and are the four thick ropes binding the Chinese people, particularly the peasants. How the peasants have overthrown the political authority of the landlords in the countryside has been described above. The political authority of the landlords is the backbone of all the other systems of authority. With that overturned, the clan authority, the religious authority and the authority of the husband all begin to totter.... As to the authority of the husband, this has always been weaker among the poor peasants because, out of economic necessity, their womenfolk have to do more manual labour than the women of the richer classes and therefore have more say and greater power of decision in family matters. With the increasing bankruptcy of the rural economy in recent years, the basis for men's domination over women has already been undermined. With the rise of the peasant movement, the women in many places have now begun to organize rural women's associations; the opportunity has come for them to lift up their heads, and the authority of the husband is getting shakier every day. In a word, the whole feudal-patriarchal ideology and system is tottering with the growth of the peasants' power.
Indian Army planning to deploy artillery, tank brigades along border with China
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2933136/posts
Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession anchored just east of Singapore
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